Can you feel it?

[TruthIsAll]

[bluestateguy]

1. I'm sorry, I don't know what a Monte Carlo simulation is

That must have passed me by in gradaute school.

[Lucky Luciano]

3. Monte Carlo simulations

Example...

Take a square of side length two and inscribe a circle of radius one inside. The area of the circle is pi nad the area of the square is 4. If you can somehow make a good random selector of points on the square and select 4,000,000 points in the square, then the number of points landing inside the circle would be about 3,1415,927 give or take - In fact it would probably be accurate to within five decimal places or more and thus, one can approximate the value of pi by using such a random generator. So, my guess is that the simulator uses the polls in each state and then runs a similar generator for each state to calculate who would win each state and thus the EVs...then a sum of EVs is calculated and we have our graph. There is work in using the margins of error for bot the polls used to do the simulation AND the margin of error for the simulation itself.

[tridim]

2. This might be a stupid question

but does Kerry's 91.6% chance of winning mean Bush has an 8.4% chance? Or is it higher than that? I guess what I'm getting at is, I'd like to see the Bush graphs too.