Rasmussen Battleground Polls for 9/29

[louis c]

Rasmussen 3 day tracking is a Bush 4 point lead, up 2 points from yesterday. I posted this info at 1:20 pm, EDT., with updates for weekly numbers for Md, Ala, Org, Virg, and Wisc. I will kick that data after the finish of this thread.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

The seven day rolling averages is as follows;

Florida, Kerry 49%-48% (No change from yesterday, and the first time Kerry has led 2 days in a row since last week).

Michigan, Kerry 46%-45% (A 1 point Bush gain from yesterday, and the closest he's been in weeks)

Minnesota, Kerry 47%-46% (This breaks a tie from yesterday, and marks the first time Kerry has led here since 9/17)

Ohio, Bush 48%-47% (This is no change from yesterday, and is still the closest Kerry has been in weeks)

Pennsylvania, Kerry 49%-45% (This is no change from yesterday, and is still the largest Kerry lead in over two weeks, here)

Look for the kicked data for Ala, Md, Or, Virg, and Wisc on the GD, campaign 2004 at 5:25 PM EDT

[louis c]

1. kick

[mzmolly]

2. Very encouraging.

:hi:

[ItsMyParty]

3. If we truly are this bad in Michigan and Minnesota in states that were

blue and we have to fight that hard to try to hold onto them, then, quiet frankly we simply will not win this election. You can't be winning everything by one tenth of one percent of zip and think we are going to hold all blue states and pick up some red one and declare victory on election night. Just is not going to happen. I see other polls with several point leads in MI and MN. I do hope they are correct. I do hope the mess in Iowa and Wisconsin straightens out right soon or we could be looking at a 2002 bloodbath. How could Bush have closed things so tight in MI and MN????---it just isn't a good sign.

[louis c]

5. But Look how tight it is

in Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, and other Red states, the game is close all over, and it's up to Kerry to win this tomorrow night.

[louis c]

15. kick

[TexasSissy]

7. I agree. But there is time, at least, to pull ahead. Gore was ahead at

this point in 2000, I heard on TV last night.

[Jawja]

8. Yes, Gore was ahead

at this point in 2000. Then came the debates and he took a dive. He slowly gained on * and on election day, Zogby pegged the outcome pretty close. Gore was up by 1%.

The rest is history.

It is still very early.

[louis c]

13. kick

[lancdem]

19. Gore won Minnesota by around 1 percent in 2000

so if the national race is close, Kerry won't be ahead much in Minnesota. Keep in mind, Bush won Ohio by a larger margin in 2000 than Gore won Minnesota or Wisconsin.

[Awsi Dooger]

4. That 4 point national lead is very troubling

It gives more legitmacy to the Bush surge in other polls and makes tomorrow's debate even more vital for Kerry. State polls tend to lag and those state numbers from key states will trend toward Bush if the national preference does not change.

[DarthDem]

6. No

The Rasmussen state trend has been favorable to Kerry for about two weeks now. He was down by 4-5 points in Ohio for weeks, and even down in PA at one point. Remember, Rasmussen is a good pollster, but he is a Republican. These numbers, combined with Gallup's Ohio poll, are really good. I'm especially excited about Kerry holding that one-point lead in FL for another day - - the darn state had flipped back and forth by a single point for the previous five days.

[Awsi Dooger]

10. Sorry, but we can't win the White House state by state

The most vital number BY FAR is national preference. There are too many states that virtually mirror the national mood to pretend we can rescue pivotal states by razor margins, while the national as a whole votes 1 to 3 points for Bush.

The current national polls may be wrong, even Rasmussen's, understating Democratic support. But on November 2 we have almost no chance unless Kerry wins the popular vote.

[louis c]

11. You Know

I was thinking that it seems that Kerry is doing better where he is responding, like Penn, Fla, and Ohio.

But where folks get only the national news medias bullshit, we have trouble, whether it's a blue or red state, like NJ, Md, Ala .

People are focusing on the trivial nonsense like tanning and Teresa's personalty, rather than the real issues like Iraq, the Economy and Health Care.

Where Kerry talks issues, where he's campaigning, we do better. Where the other side controls the debate, on bullshit, we do worse.

The average Americans better wake up, or we will be the big losers on 11/2.

After all, if Kerry doesn't win, he'll be a billionaire Senator, with a wonderful family, and a loving wife. On top of that, he'll have at least 4 years to keep telling everyone "I told you so".

[senseandsensibility]

14. But we know

and I'm sure Kerry knows, that this isn't about Kerry. It's about us. And the sad thing is, we'll have to live with the disaster * makes of this country if he steals another election, whether we vote for him or not. As they say, people get the leaders they deserve. But if you don't vote for the creep and if you do everything you can to prevent him from being selected, you still have to live with it. That should motivate a few people!

[Leilani]

9. I think things are turning again..

I think Kerrys new strong message on Iraq is getting through, & the polls lag. But the new Ohio poll shows things changing.

I think we have bottomed out; the Bush negative ads have done their damage, & now we are on our way back up.

Election cycles have a flow to them, & it goes up & down. If Kerry does well tomorrow night, it looks good.

[louis c]

12. kick

[SoCalDemocrat]

16. I'd consider this fairly accurate

Rasmussen and Zogby both try to accurately model the Party ID of participants in their polls.

[private_ryan]

17. However

if other polls show a Bush lead of 8-9%, many dems will think it's over and not show to vote. Kerry has to close the race to 1-3 points with other (non weighed) polls too by election day or else...

[simpsonsbuff]

18. Dewey

I mean all the polls had Dewey winning, and people still showed up..... I dont know, but i would rather have it within 5 in every poll.