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That reading of where things are seems to me to be a bit too rosy. Kerry doesn't have a majority in the polling either, even if being tied means he's more likely to win.
The Republican strategists on the talk shows this morning were spouting mostly their usual irreal Rosy Scenario talking points. But after they'd run through them and engaged a bit more honestly, the consensus view among them- though they can't say it out loud- seems to be that Bush is through. His politics hold no water, and even if he carries the day on November 2 they appear to admit that he has no credibility left and no meaningful plan in any real sense. In 2000 Bush represented something to his voters and supporters, in large parts not articulated in the platform he ran on then, which no longer strikes them as sustainable and/or relevant.
But in tacitly conceding that Bush's side of the game is pointless they also seemed kind of upset with Kerry in an honest way. Kerry has gotten great mileage out of simply pointing out the bankruptcy of the Bush Administrations' policies and politics, and all he's needed to do was put up plausible foils in particular policy points- a healthcare plan, an Iraq plan, etc which exist simply to supply contrast and as tentative starting points. Now that they see Kerry taking office (or Bush returning to office but proving an overt failure very quickly) they want to be defeated by substance, not just forms that are the opposite of their own phatasmagoras. So they are wierdly humble or dissonant in it, but adamant, that Kerry's people show them the substance of the things they are preparing to submit to.
I think they have a point. But there isn't too much to be done to assuade them simply because the Administration's situation is so deluded and irreal and unsalvageable that the package is going to break up on the rocks it got tossed onto in a matter of weeks or months at best.
So Kerry is some distance from the hoped for sense of desirable/bearable/inevitable, even if Bush's support is shallow/weak/fraying and his power is in unrecoverable decline. His moderate/intelligent supporters want something they can surrender to; they're asking for a bargain in which they can retain the dignity of knowing that Kerry is truly going to improve things, which they feel insecure about.
So Bush has already lost, in their eyes, but some honest work by Kerry is still demanded- via passionate and shrill attacks on him, or hard but semi-passive opposition- before they'll concede the battlefield.
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