WHY POLLS ARE SKEWED: do you have ONLY a cell phone?

[Phillycat]

I only have a cell phone. I haven't had a landline in years. Most of my friends here in the city only have cell phones too. We are all liberals.

Cell phones don't get polled, of course.

My theory is that people who only have cell phones are more likely to be urban and liberal; therefore, poll numbers are skewed in favor of suburban and rural areas which are still predominately landlines.

What do you think?

[On the Road]

1. I Have Both

but chances of catching me on my landline are slim.

[yvr girl]

2. I used to have only a cell but..

I wanted DSL. (Our local cable company is evil.) I do know lots of people who only have cells.

[Worst Username Ever]

3. I only have a cell phone

So does my girlfriend. And my step sister. And my best guy friend.

[GOPBasher]

4. I only have a cell phone.

I'd like it if these unaccounted for voters tip the election to Kerry right at the end.

[kurt_cagle]

17. Cell Phones

I have a land line only because we got a package from AT&T (cable, internet, and phone). Because of its continued disintegration, we'll problem drop the land line in favor of cells this month, the cable's already migrated to Comcast and we're shopping around for a DSL Internet connection because of problem's we've had with cable.

Significantly, our land line has been ringing pretty heavily from pollsters, about 1 1/2 a week or so. By dropping that service, I'll contribute to the cell phone skewing as well, which means that the theory about the under-representation of the digiterati is probaby true to a great extent, especially if you assume that people with cell-phones are more likely to also have Internet access and use it as their PRIMARY means of getting news.

I've noticed that the demographics for this election have tended to slew pretty heavily not between the traditional rich/poor social gap but the more subtle Info-haves/Info-have-nots. Those people who have access to the Internet are much more likely to have encountered alternative viewpoints with chances for exploration of links, and as such are likely to be more well-informed about each of the candidates and their associated people.

For all their noise, freepers are under-represented on the Internet, while the Libertarian viewpoint is probably over-represented (ditto for cell-phone usage). A Libertarian may vote still vote for Bush, but they are more likely to be well-informed and are voting based upon personal philosophy rather than lack of information -- that's why they are more "undecided" in this election than in previous ones, as Bush's actions are about as antithetical to the notion of Free Market Libertarianism as you can get, even if his rhetoric is not.

Good theory, something to think about.

-- Kurt

[Phillycat]

19. Great post.

:thumbsup:

[r_u_stuck2]

5. Florida

There are still lots of folks in Florida without land lines as of right now resulting from Hurricane's. Mine is still out from IVAN and it looks as if we will not get phone service for at least another 3 weeks.

[Phillycat]

7. Another excellent point!

Florida voters haven't been accurately polled in several months.

[trotsky]

6. What about anonymous call blocking?

We signed up for that on our land line to cut back on the number of solicitation calls. It's worked brilliantly, but I've never gotten called on a poll either so I wonder if it blocks them too.

[Phillycat]

8. Huh. Like the "do not call" lists? Does that block polling?

Does anyone know the answer to this question?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Pollsters Are Exempt.... I Believe Charities Are Too...

[ThoughtCriminal]

15. And TeleZappers

Do pollsters use computerized dialing?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

16. some do.... some don't

I know CBS uses computerized dialing....

[trotsky]

21. That is the case for the "Do Not Call" list, but this is different.

This is a service offered by the phone company where they will by default stop any unidentified caller from connecting to you unless they unblock or enter in their phone number.

[benddem]

9. I do phoning for

Kerry and local candidates. We usually don't try phones that don't accept blocked calls. We can unblock our phones...but that is only done in the real GOTV votes

[H3Dakota]

10. Cell only here...

I have just a cell, as does my father, my fiance, my ex... many people that I know! Why pay for both, especially with THIS economy??

[DemocratSinceBirth]

11. I Predict

I predict the final pre election presidential polls will be within the margin of error as they have been in every election after 1948...


Doubting the polls is a sucker's game...

[marlakay]

13. Both my kids in 20's have cells only and I can't get calls online n/t

[Texas_Dem]

14. Not only do many Dems only have cell phones,

but they screen their calls as well. If I don't know you, I am not going to answer. Gallup does not ask for call backs on your voice mail either.

[andym]

18. Polls and cell phones

Actually the cell phone effect is probably minimal. That's because of both the number of exclusive cell phone users and the great likelihood that one political affiliation is not preferentially linked to cell phone use.

Remember the Iowa primary when Dean supporters suspected that the late polling was wrong because cell phone users were being discounted. But the polls were right, to some extent they erred in giving him better numbers than he actually got.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. Exactly...

Polling is part art and part science...

It is full of assumption; one of the assumptions is that political preference is not tied to cell phone use, call blocking, caller i.d., et cetera...

I'm betting they get it right at the end...

[Phillycat]

23. I disagree.

We know that Rebublicans skew older and more rural, right? Well, who is more likely to have a cell phone and NOT a landline, a 55-year old farmer or a 25 year old city dweller? And what political affiliation is that 25 year old more likely to have? Having a cell phone only is a progressive thing.

[MallRat]

22. Wait, I'll do you one better- I think polls skew in favor of homeowners.

For 5 years, when I rented an apartment, I never got a single phone call from a pollster.

Now that I own a home, I'm averaging about 1-2 telephone polls a year.

Anyone else have this same experience?

-MR

[Catherine Vincent]

24. I have both but I don't answer incoming calls that read 'unavailable'

or 'unknown'. Thank goodness for caller ID.

[Awsi Dooger]

25. This factor distorts underfunded state polls much more than big firms

I've researched this cell phone-only/caller ID dimemma somewhat, although precise info is admittedly scarce. PEW tried to do a study a year or so ago, but came up with bizarre results like 73% of blacks supposedly have Caller ID compared to 47% for whites, etc.

Zogby and other pollsters acknowledge the cell phone-only problem, but claim it is still small enough not to change numbers significantly. They insist less than 10%, more like 6-8%, of households rely on cell only, and those are primarily 25 and under, the block least likely to vote.

As others have pointed out in this thread, the major firms are sophisticated and increasingly so. Minor state only polls, primarily local, are still married to aged techniques and are definitely less reliable.

[Phillycat]

35. Clinton got the under-25 vote out, I think Kerry will too.

I think this could be statistically significant.

[Irishladdie]

26. I only have a CELL Phone..

[rndmprsn]

27. Only cell phone

for about a year and a half

[SeanQ]

28. Cell and VoIP

No traditional land line. And, since VoIP phones can have any area code you select, I assume they are not polled for similar reasons I've heard cell phones aren't polled.

[Paranoid_Portlander]

29. In the 1930s...

... many people were too poor to have any kind of phone service. (Of course there were no cells back then.) Some 1930s polls were skewed because of this. So I agree with the original message that phones or type of phones do make a significant difference.

[genius]

30. I have all my land calls screened and no pollsters leave messages.

[Grown2Hate]

31. Yes, that's all I have... BUT..

I got a polling call yesterday! And so did my girlfriend... both on our CELL PHONES! It was funded by the Arizona Dem. Party, and it asked who we were planning on voting for, if we could volunteer, etc. It was automated, but still... is this out of the norm? I was blown away.

[Phillycat]

34. Wow, yes I think it is out of the norm.

I've never gotten a polling call on my cell phone and I don't know any of my cell-only friends who have either.

[Cats Against Frist]

32. Not now, but I did from 2000-2002

Meaning, when I was a 25-year-old Democrat living in Seattle. Meaning if you don't get that vote -- you got nothin'. :)

[Claire Beth]

33. I only have a cell phone