New Governor's poll - who is Research 2000? anyone?

[Debi]

A Research 2000 poll shows Rep. Jim Nussle (R) defeating four potential Dem IA GOV opponents among likely IA voters: Culver (42%-38%), Fallon (45%-21%), Judge (43%-31%) and Blouin (45%-18%) (release).

[DU9598]

1. Obviously not too credible

The numbers are way out of line with reality. I am not supporting Blouin, but he would clearly get more than 18% of the vote.

[Debi]

3. Agree, weird numbers n/t

[IA_Seth]

2. Research 2000

http://www.research2000.us/about_us/index.php

A quick blurb from their site...

Our President
Del Ali is considered to be one of the leading analysts on the political landscape. Since 1986, Del has analyzed over 1500 political races for media as well as for advocacy organizations and businesses. Del appears frequently on programs such as Fox-Television in Washington D.C., National Public Radio, WMAL Radio in Washington D.C. and CNN’S "Inside Politics". Del is presently the on-air analyst for KPAN radio in Portland. In addition, Del is frequently quoted in The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and in USA Today. You can find out more about Del by visiting his Op-Ed Page and reading some of his published articles.

...

Some of our most active media clientele include the Bergen Record, The Raleigh News & Observer, The Portland Tribune, The Seattle Post-Intelligencer, The Concord Monitor, The Manchester Journal Inquirer, The Reno-Gazette, KCCI-Television in Des Moines, Iowa, WEEK-Television in Peoria, Illinois, KOMU-Television in Columbia, Missouri, and WISC-Television in Madison, Wisconsin.

Our Polls can be seen on CNN'S "Inside Politics" and are also mentioned frequently in the National Journal's "Political Hotline", The Washington Post, The New York Times, The Christian Science Monitor, and The Wall Street Journal. Visit our In the News Page to see some online examples of this.

Some of our non media clientele include The National Right to Work Committee, Sullivan & LeShane, Gun Owners of America, The Smith Free Group, NEA affiliates in (Idaho, Iowa, Missouri, Nebraska, and Washington) The New Mexico Gaming Commission, Wells Fargo Bank of New Mexico, The Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, NCG Porter Novelli and The Kansas Chamber of Commerce & Industry.

[Debi]

4. Mixed bag - what do you make of it? n/t

[IA_Seth]

5. Hard to tell really....

I can't really come up with any conclusive evidence saying its a right-wing or left-wing company, or really anything positive or negative...

Just looks like it may have just been a poorly done poll? It's hard to imagine that Blouin (love him or NOT) would only garner 18%.

[Debi]

6. I agree, I'd like to see who was sampled and what the questions were

rarely is there only one question in a poll - why waste the money?

[Debi]

7. Full Poll Results from KCCI (and how the poll was conducted)

IOWA POLL RESULTS – NOVEMBER 2005

2006 GOVERNOR RACE:



This poll was conducted from November 14-November 16 from 600 likely general election voters in Iowa. The margin of error is +/- 4%.



FAV UNFAV NO OPINION



Chet Culver 32% 11% 57%

Patty Judge 26% 7% 67%

Ed Fallon 11% 3% 86%

Michael Blouin 10% 3% 87%

Jim Nussle 45% 23% 32%

Bob Vander Plaats 27% 18% 55%



GENERAL ELECTION MATCH-UPS





NUSSLE CULVER UNDECIDED

42% 38% 20%



CULVER VANDERPLAATS UNDECIDED

41% 33% 26%



NUSSLE FALLON UNDECIDED

45% 21% 34%



VANDERPLAATS FALLON UNDECIDED

33% 22% 45%





NUSSLE JUDGE UNDECIDED

43% 31% 26%



JUDGE VANDERPLAATS UNDECIDED

32% 31% 37%



NUSSLE BLOUIN UNDECIDED

45% 18% 37%



VANDERPLAATS BLOUIN UNDECIDED

33% 22% 45%







IOWA POLL RESULTS – NOVEMBER 2005

The Research 2000 Iowa Poll was conducted from November 14 through November 16,

2005. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed

statewide by telephone. Those interviewed were selected by the random variation of the

last four digits of telephone numbers. A cross-section of exchanges was utilized in order

to ensure an accurate reflection of the state. Quotas were assigned to reflect the voter

registration of distribution by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more

than plus or minus 4% percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent

probability that the “true” figure would fall within that range if the entire population were

sampled. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as for gender or party

affiliation.

SAMPLE FIGURE:

Men 284 (48%)

Women 316 (52%)

Democrats 187 (31%)

Republicans 190 (32%)

Independents/Other 223 (37%)

[IA_Seth]

8. Well Hmmm

That still absoultely confounds me, and other than explaining this away as an anomoly I have no idea how the results could turn out the way they did?

I realize Nussle has some built-in name recognition based on his congressional seat, and Culver probably does with the older crowd (no offense to anyone here!), but I just don't see some of these results as ever happening. Blouin getting 18%!? I don't think so.

Maybe what these results DO say is that our candidates (and us) have a lot of work to do to get there names/ideas out there and talked about.

[Debi]

9. I was just as befuddled!

I thought if I could see how the poll was conducted that it would explain the numbers...instead it confuses me even more.

I still wonder what questions were asked...maybe that would sway the results?!

[IA_Seth]

10. Who woud you vote for....

lol...yeah...I would like to know what else was asked, and if there were any other questions asked.

Do you support the Iowa Values Fund, aka Corporate Welfare, brainchild of Mike Blouin?

Would you vote for Nussle or Blouin?

[Debi]

11. Ha ha Seth!

I figured it was something like "Would you vote for one of those tax and spend liberals that waste your hard earned cash on things like giving the already financially bulging Wells Fargo some free money? Or do you support the Chariman of financial responsibility?" - Take your time, we can wait until you decide.....

The General is 11 months away...how many more of these polls are we going to have to decipher? AAAAAcccckkkkkk!!!

[progressoid]

12. It's too early.

People are just trying to figure out how to get through the winter. Let's try this again in a few months and then see.

I can't see polling 600 people at this stage is all that informative. Most don't even know the candidates that well.