Maryland--Republicans Starting to Gain Traction:

[mdguss]

I read another post here that asks why is Maryland more Democratic than other southern states. Maryland is a border state: it's part southern and part northern. The area around Baltimore is essentially a northern state (I include Baltimore City and County, Howard County, Prince George's, Anne Arundel, and Montgomery Counties in that). But the rest of the state is pretty southern--and it's rapidly growing.

Look at Frederick County. In 2000, Bush won the county with 39,000 votes (out of 70,000 cast). In 2004, Bush won with 59,000 votes--and 100,000 were cast. Similiar increases can be seen in Carrol, Harford, and Washington Counties. There areas--by and large--are the domain of conservative Republicans. And it's a fact that these areas will grow at a faster rate than Montgomery, Baltimore and Howard counties.

We're making a mistake to think that Maryland is a solidly Democratic state, and that Ehrlich is a fluke. Redistricting has shortend the pool of potential Republican candidates for statewide office. But it's apparent that Lt. Gov. Steele will be a strong candidate for Governor in 2010. St. Sen. Brinkley (R-Frederick/Carrol) is also an attractive candidate for statewide office. As the outlying areas grow, the margin of victory (fueled by huge margins in Baltimore) will be reduced. Senator Ehrlich could very well become a reality--the outlying areas are rapidly growing and rapidly becoming Republican strongholds.

[Melodybe]

1. Maryland also just got an assload of Diebold machines

just last year and they were used in the election.

Does that answer your question?

[mdguss]

2. No, I live in Frederick, it's an accurate result:

The Bush/Kerry result here was 60K to 40K. That's a pretty accurate reflection of the county. The Democratic Party--and it's left wing--does itself no favors by whining about machines. There are some problems that should be addressed (there should be paper-trails), but still they accurately counted our state's votes in this election.

[GoddessOfGuinness]

7. The city of Frederick has a pretty large black population...

What's voter turnout like there?
Years ago there was a strong KKK presence in Thurmont, about 15 miles north of Frederick. I wonder if they're still there, and if they have any affect on minority voting.

[mdguss]

8. Frederick is a unique case:

We have a Democratic Mayor, Jennifer Dougherty. She's done a pretty good job, and is up for re-election next year. She will probably have an opponent--former Mayor Ron Young--in the Democratic primary and another (Republican Alderman Joe Baldi) in the general election. Dougherty got 59 percent in 2001, but her Republican predecessor was hampered by a pretty big scandal. Before that, we have 12 years of Republicans and 16 years of Ron Young. We have a 3-2 Republican majority on the Board of Alderman (It was a 3-2 Democratic Majority until Bill Hall--who is African American and who dislikes Jennifer Dougherty--switched parties earlier this year). Frederick has grown, and frankly isn't diverese--or tolerant--enough. There's still a lot of work to do.

The KKK is, sadly, still around. They sent a letter to the editor this week claiming credit for running the gays out of town. They still are in Thurmont. A former grand wizard ran in the 2002 Republican primary for County Commisoner--and lost.

They are the MINORITY around here. Nearly everybody wants them to go away, but they're still around.

[ImADeanDem]

31. Of course, there's no way to know for sure, is there?

That's the whole problem with the paperless machines -- there's no way to know if there were problems or not. I personally know two people who were pollwatchers at two different polling places in MD, and at each polling place, the end-of-day vote counts on the machines were higher than the number of people who had signed in. And there are stories like that from all across the state. The problems may not have been big enough to change any outcomes, but I don't think anyone can say with certainty that the machines "accurately counted our state's votes in this election." In fact, I'm fairly certain that they didn't.

Sorry if this sounds like "whining" to you. I prefer to think of it as standing up for my right to vote -- and to have my vote counted accurately.

[Devil Dog Dem]

3. I agree 100%

I have a friend who is a prominent Montgomery County Dem Pol with statewide ambitions (who will go nameless). His opinion -- and I share it, although his opinion is far more educated than mine -- is: not only is Maryland not as Dem as some Dems seem to think it is, but the Dem stronghold like Montgomery County isn't even as liberal as liberals like to think it is. He said this long before Ehrlich won and he thinks Ehrlich will win again in 2006 (although some recent mistakes regarding sweetheart deals of state land to contributors is going to hurt him).

The theory is this: Dems like Glendenning (our previous governor) carried only 3 jurisdictions: Montgomery County, Prince George's County, and Baltimore City. He got his ass pretty much handed to him throughout the rest of the state, but he won strongly enough in the Dem strongholds to carry the state narrowly in 1994, and slightly better in 1998. So, when a Dem either runs a crappy campaign (like Townsend did) or is TOO liberal you will see some of the Dems in MoCo defect to the repug ticket and the repug will win (like Ehrlich did).

Not only are we in danger of losing statewide (as we have) but the state legislature is no sure thing. Sure, we have dominance now, but you have to remember that the state Constitution prohibits radical gerrymandering of state seats (but has no say in U.S. congressional seats). Thus, Dems aren't as able to gerrymander seats the way they can in say Illinois or other blue states. Thus, a repug governor cruising to reelection could have some decent coattails in some of the state legislative races. Have the repugs put up some moderate repug candidates in say MoCo (think: Republican Connie Morella types who are popular in MoCo) to knock off some of the hard left candidates who misjudge just how liberal their constituents are, and you could see some erosion of power. The Repugs won't get majority status anytime soon, but they could easily come to parity with Dems in a decade.

It could happen. Especially when you remember (as you pointed out) that the rest of the state is hard conservative, and maybe you throw in some Dem corruption that gets tons of press and the repugs run on a reform ticket, like Gingirch's Contract For America in 1994. Dems should not take for granted their power in Maryland.

[DaveinMD]

4. Maryland

is still reliably Democratic. You can name the areas that are Republican. But the majority of people are Dems. Kerry did very well here. The Republican bench is weak and Ehrlich is going down in two years regardless of who the candidate is. Kerry did very well in both Howard and Baltimore Counties. And his margin of defeat on the Eastern Shore was smaller than KKT. Furthermore, Montgomery County is growing just as fast as the outlying areas. And its becoming more Demcratic with each election.

[Devil Dog Dem]

5. Talking less about presidential race. More about local and state races.

We've got a Republican governor.
You can count the Dem jurisdictions on one hand. The other 20 are Republican heavy.

[DaveinMD]

6. Republicans

have won one statewide election in the last 20 years. This occurred because of the worst Democratic campaign I've ever seen. Democrats hold the County Executive postions in all the most populous counties. Howard, Montgomery, Anne Arundel,PG, Balt. Co and the Mayor of Balt. City. The Dems hold the AG, Comptroller (although Shaffer is a DINO), both Senators, and hold huge majorites in both the House of Delegates and State Senate. Ehrlich already loses in a head to head with O'Malley and is only 7 points ahead of Duncan despite the fact that Duncan has only 35 percent name ID in the state. He's in serious trouble.

[nickshepDEM]

9. I live in Dundalk

(a suburb right outside of Baltimore City) and we are heavily democratic but for some reason Ehrlich seems to be liked very much here. Ive said it in numerous other posts, I see signs and bumper stickers constantly stating "We love our Gov" and "Another Democrat for Ehrlich." I think Ehrlich will be alot tougher to beat in 2006 then most think but PLEASE let me be WRONG! One last question, do you think Ehrlich will exploit O'Malleys record in Baltimore City Schools and his trouble keeping a Police commisioner if they were to be the two candidate in 2006 and how bad would this hurt O'Malley?

[DaveinMD]

10. Ehrlich

definitely has pockets of popularity. But remember, signs means squat. They are not scientific.

I'm sure Ehrlich will go after O'Malley on these issues. But the schools have improved. Ehrlich has had his own public safety problems. I'll tell you this. Neither O'Malley or Duncan will take shit from anyone. O'Malley and Duncan will both do better in the outer suburbs than KKT did. It won't be an easy race but I expect either Dem to get 53 percent of the vote. Ehrlich only won by two points against KKT and she pissed off Dems of all stripes in the last election.

[nickshepDEM]

11. I guess your right

about the signs but when I drive from my house to college and back and see at least 3 pro Ehrlich signs/stickers in an area that I thought/should be verryyyyyy democratic it seems somewhat threatning, ya know?

BTW were in Maryland are you located because Im really looking to get involved in this 2006 election race but I just dont know where to start. I am a 20 year old college kid and no one really wants to pay attention when I tell them I wanna help.

[DaveinMD]

12. I live in Burtonsville

Its in Montgomery County right on the Howard County Border. What campaign do you want to get involved in. I can get them to call you. I would also suggest joining your local Young Democrats chapter.

[nickshepDEM]

13. When

O'Malley officially announces he will be running I would like to get involved in his campaign. I registed with the young Democrats of Baltimore County but every time they send me an email its cluttered with HTML. I dont know if it is my e-mail or theres but it gets frustrating trying to read through all of that crap. Anyways, When do you think that O'Malley or Duncan will announce they are going to run and how soon after will the begin campaigning?

If you want you can email me the information to get in contact with them or I can email you my information so they can be in contact with me, [e-mail]

[DaveinMD]

14. I would think

the announcement could come in January or maybe after session this April. I will be meeting with O'Malley's fundraiser in two weeks. I'll find out some stuff then.

[Devil Dog Dem]

15. KKT DID run the WORST campaign in history. But still, . . .

Bobby boy will be tough to beat.

I agree that Duncan and O'Malley will run tough, disciplined campaigns, but don't forget that the winner of the primary will have just come from a bruising primary. MoCo voters won't be crazy about having another Mayor from Baltimore become the Governor of Baltimore (sic). Schaeffer so screwed MoCo and PG that the feelings there are still sensitive.

Conversely, Baltimore voters (who think they have a God-given right to choose Balmers to run the state) aren't going to be crazy about Duncan. I recognize that Glendenning won in 1994 having come from PG, but PG doesn't piss off Balmers as much as MoCo does (nothing does), and that primary wasn't the bruiser this one promises to be, and the repug almost won.

So, my point is, there will be SOME natural suppression of votes in one of the 3 Dem strongholds. Add to that a popular repug governor and you will have another tight race. In tight races, ANYTHING can happen, including a Republican winning in Maryland.

I pray I am wrong, but you are crazy if you bet big money on Ehrlich losing.

[nickshepDEM]

16. Lord I hope he's wrong...

[DaveinMD]

17. I think you are very wrong

Schaeffer will be taken out in the primary this year. Del. Peter Franchot is running againt him. Montgomery has been trending Democratic more and more with each election. Ehrlich is very unpopular here. O'Malley being on the ticket will not affect the Democratic vote here. Duncan could do worse in the Baltimore area, but he will do better than KKT in Republican leaning counties. I would bet on that. The Democrat will win this race. Book it.

[nickshepDEM]

18. Do you think O'Malley

will do as well in Baltimore City when he runs for Govenor as he did this year for mayor? I mean he absolutley crushed his opponent. I mean there was never a doubt that this was going to happend but I didnt think it would be this bad... Then again Im kinda new to politics since im only 20 and only voted in 3 elections, LOL.

Henderson, Elbert Rep 22,872 - 12.26%
O'Malley, Martin (i) Dem 163,738 - 87.74%

[DaveinMD]

19. Probably

those are not unusual numbers for a Democrat in Baltimore City. And there will be a much stronger GOTV operation in two years. No GOTV money was spent in Maryland this year.

[nickshepDEM]

20. Dave

dont forget to contact me about that information when things start to fire up after the new year. After this '04 election with Kerry losing Ive realized it takes much more than just voting to help your candidate win. I dont want to sit back and let this happend again. I PERSONALLY wanna put O'Malley in Annapolis in '06. LOL :)

[DaveinMD]

21. I will let you know who to contact

as soon as I have my meeting with his fundraiser. I'll ask her.

[freestyle]

22. No, Henderson was an unknown non-city resident.

O'Malley's popularity in Baltimore's black community is not nearly that overwhelming as demonstrated by the showing of Andre Bundley in the mayoral primary. Having said that, Baltimore is also extremely Democratic and Ehrlich has done so little for the city that any Democrat would get well over 80% of the vote. I think Duncan would ultimately be a stronger candidate and a far better governor than O'Malley. O'Malley is a grandstanding incompetent, and for now my mayor.

[Zuni]

30. O'Malley is no KKT

I'm sorry, but nobody in PG county is going to worry about what crazy old Willie Don did years ago
O'malley has a real shot at winning this.

KKT was the worst candidate I can remember. She should have wiped the floor with Ehrlich, but ended up really grating on my nerves and i am 100% democrat

[Frances]

38. I can't see any Duncan supporter

voting for Ehrlich over O'Malley if O'Malley wins the primary. Duncan and O'Malley are too close on the issues and both are polar opposites of Ehrlich. I am not a Duncan fan, but I would vote Duncan over Ehrlich any day.

[AuntiBush]

39. You Betcha! Maryland "is" still MORE Democrat. Good Call DaveinMD

[Name removed]

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[nickshepDEM]

25. With enough votes to overide a Veto if need be.

:D

[Grip]

27. why is that a troll?

Yeah great. The workin' man gets a 2% premium increase so a rich Chevy Chase trial lawyer can get paid. Ooooh, that is such a good deal!

BTW, did you know that anyone can sue you for just about anything? So even the Doctor who does the right thing can get sued and he still has to pay a lawyer to defend himself.

When people loose a loved-one they usually blame the doctor even if the doctor did everything he could.

[DaveinMD]

28. you take away the right to sue

you take away people's right to get redress for wrongdoing. Doctors are hardly the working man. You are using talking points right out of the Republican handbook. You are very misinformed.

[ImADeanDem]

32. It's simply NOT TRUE that anyone can sue anyone

over anything! If the plaintiff doesn't have at least a colorable claim, most lawyers won't take the case. Lawyers can face discipline and even disbarment for filing "frivolous" lawsuits. Additionally, most personal injury cases are done on a contingency fee basis, which means the lawyer doesn't get paid if they don't win -- and they have to front a considerable amount of money for court fees, expert witnesses, etc., so there's a financial disincentive to take cases that aren't sure winners.

I'm certainly not saying that there aren't some inappropriate lawsuits filed, or that there aren't "bad apple" attorneys who flaunt the ethics rules -- but I think those are the exception, not the rule. I also think there are probably as many legitimate malpractice suits that NEVER get filed because it's just not cost-effective for an attorney to take the case.

(Oh, and the same way there are "bad apple" attorneys, there are also "bad apple" doctors. If we take away or too severely restrict the right to redress, those doctors are going to continue practicing and continue injuring people!)

[AuntiBush]

26. O'Malley hands-down...

Everyone I know "now" likes O'Malley and can not stand Gov. Ehrlich! Over the last two years, Ehrlich has "tried" to take down O'Malley regarding school/teacher issues, and won! Major public battles when one thinks about it. Both have grown, being somewhat young, but O'Malley has grown in a positive manner, whereas Ehrlich is still licking his most recent wounds after attacking our beloved Sun Newspaper's editor and co-editor, two very well resepected players in this state.

My moneys on O'Malley. At first, I wasn't sure due to the crime issues, but now I believe he has JHH behind him, thanks to the allowance of land grants around the city.

And about trial lawyers... they've got their hands literally tied and bound, thanks to Ehrlich and the big corporate law firms here, major money-givers to Bush and company. It didn't sit pretty with most I know and many Repubs I know personally are SUPER SORRY they voted for Bush... now, like it matters now.

[Lenape85]

29. Well, they can't take over if we don't let them

[ImADeanDem]

33. Good point!

I think we're definitely heading in the right direction with Terry Lierman as our new state party chair. I've been seeing his name in the news practically every day -- he's really been doing a good job getting our message out there and making sure the Republicans don't get away with much!

[DaveinMD]

34. he's doing a great job

[nickshepDEM]

35. He seems like a real brawler.

Democrats in general need to stop playing defense and get on the offensive. He seems like that type of guy to me.

[DaveinMD]

36. He ran for Congress

in 2000 against Morella and held her to 52 percent before it was redistricted for the Dems to win. More recently, he was one of Dean's top fundraisers. He is a pit bull. My wife helped his congressional campaign a lot.

[Name removed]

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[FreeStateDemocrat]

40. Democrat has won in Fredneck ask the very liberal Sen. Mikulski

Pipkin, E. J. REP 47081 48.06%
Mikulski, Barbara A. DEM 49336 50.36%

[AuntiBush]

41. I've Seen the Doc's = Maryland is More Democrat than you think.

We are ;)