Wednesday Wire-Democrats Abroad

[davidpdx]

I thought I'd repost this. I get this via email every couple of weeks.

Dear Democrats Around the World,

This is Wednesday Wire No. 144, 2 July 2008

You know the rule, no reply to a listserve. Feel free to pass on Wednesday Wire .

This week’s sponsor, of what is now a gross of Wednesday Wires, is Stanley Grossman, DAUK and Democrats Abroad Treasurer and DNC Member-Elect. For Stan’s very special interest, see ‘A Giving Opportunity.2” below.

For information on how to become a WW Sponsor or Associate (we are at 30% of our goal), read below the ‘And finally…” item.

Topics This Week:

1. You don’t believe 400 Electoral Votes?! Here are the numbers
2. A Giving Opportunity.2
3, State By State
4, Reading Recommendations
And finally…

1. You don’t believe 400 Electoral Votes?! Here are the numbers. Several readers had problems with my prediction three weeks ago that Obama would get 400 Electoral Votes come 4 November. Yes, it’s true, none of the major pundits are predicting it at this level – yet - and we’ll only know that night. But consider:

a. 57% of the American public has a positive view of the Democratic Party; 39% of the Republican party. 53% want a Democratic congress; 32% a Republican congress. These gaps are the largest ever recorded (last 40 years or so) even during the years when Reagan got 500 electoral votes (1984) and the Republicans took 50+ seats in the House in 1994, or when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford in 1976. There is not a single key issue
where the public feels that the Republicans can do a better job than the Democrats, including terrorism, military readiness, foreign policy, the economy - the issues where they used to lead by wide margins.

b. Bush's approval rating is heading for 25% in nearly all polls; McCain will not be able to disassociate himself from Bush after voting with him 100% of the time in 2008 and 95% of the time in 2007. Only 52% of Republicans are satisfied with him as the nominee; evangelicals are bailing. The Ron Paul/Bob Barr effect may be very significant,
particularly in the south.

c. The housing sub prime lending crisis will hit its high-water mark in September or October with perhaps a half million homes under foreclosure during each of these months alone. The price of gas may come down, with Saudi and oil company cooperation, to $3.50 a gallon - not exactly a price the public is going to want to cheer.

d. The Republican Congressional campaign committee has about $6 million; the Dem side about $45 million; the Republicans, because of the audit of the $750,000 theft by their treasurer, will not be allowed to borrow any money until the audit is completed.

e. The Senate campaign committee situation is nearly as good with the Dems holding twice as much money as the Republicans and the Republicans having 23 seats to defend, of which 15 or so are vulnerable, to 12 for the Dems, with only seat even remotely in danger (Landrieu is leading by six in the latest polling). Republican leaders, in an effort to reduce expectations, are already talking about losing 8 Senate seats. It is too early for them to be upping the ante on Democrats' expectations; the 8 loss figure actually means they are very concerned that they might lose 12 or more.

f. Obama will not accept federal financing, because he will be able to raise upwards of $500 million for the fall campaign, while McCain will have difficulty raising one fifth of that, assuming he doesn't use public financing.

g. Current polling shows that Obama is ahead nationally by 5-7 points in nearly all major polls; 12 percent in the latest LA Times poll (which could be an outlier). Individual state polling shows Obama well ahead in states that figured to be close; unusually close in red states that Bush took by 20+ points in 2004 (Texas, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, even Wyoming). Even in the south, Obama is poised to make it a battle (that the Republicans will need to spend a lot of money to avoid losing) in South Carolina, Georgia, Mississippi, North Carolina, Virginia and Louisiana. Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa are tending in Obama's direction, where he already leads. Even McCain said that Arizona could go Obama's way. Add Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Montana to the list. Obama is already leading or close in the most recent Florida polling, he is going to win Texas - mark my words.

h. McCain has clearly shown that he will not be able to run a good campaign. He will certainly be helped by the Swiftboating crowd, who are running his “Truth Squad”; Obama's wife will be treated like they used to treat Hillary, but the mood of the country is such that these kinds of Rovian attacks won't work as well as in the past. McCain’s campaign organization borders on disastrous. The reaction to Clark’s and Webb comments that being a POW is not a qualification for president is a act of desperation.

i. Obama has clearly shown that he is masterful at campaign organization; his takeover of the DNC and moving its key operations to Chicago is unprecedented. The Obama campaign is already sending thousands of volunteers for six week periods to states that are not normally in play to organize block by block, county by county. His is the most sophisticated political organization in American history.

j. Still not convinced? The two major political betting sites have Obama a 2-1 favorite; Right Track/Wrong Track polling shows 18% of the American public think we are on the right track; 82% (a record) think we are on the wrong track. Republicans are beginning to criticize McCain for doing nothing for four months to help the down ticket candidates; he even cancelled appearances with the RNCC and RSCC which were to help raise funds for other Republicans. The generic Presidential ballot poll is 50 for Democrats; 40 for Republicans. Bush financial backers are staying away from McCain in large numbers and Wall Street contributors are backing Obama 2-1 according to the New York Daily News analysis (these guys usually know where to put their money). And the real kicker: 68% believe that McCain is too much like Bush; let’s go back to Bush’s 25% approval rating…

The trends are working in our direction by every single measure. There is nothing that the Republicans can hang onto that portends any change between now and November.
As it stands right now, this is a wave election on the order of 1936, 1964 or 1994.

And we haven't even begun to address John McCain - his age, his seeming mental deterioration, his dismal record, his flip flops that put Kerry in the shade . It's not going to get any better for him; his VP choice might be more embarrassment by the comparison to him than help. There is speculation that McCain may make a one term pledge.

Thus my prediction.

Does it mean we don't have to work hard to make it happen? Absolutely we must, but the enthusiasm is there to do it - Dems are 30% more enthusiastic about their candidate than Republicans are. We need to fight like we are the underdog, but recognize the opportunity that is before us.

Next week, we will look at some downers that bear watching.

A Giving Opportunity.2 This week’s sponsor, Stanley Grossman, has a special project for which he raises money: Democrats Abroad. To quote, in part, from Lindsey Reynolds, DA Executive Director’s recent fact sheet called “Take back the White House with Democrats Abroad” here are the key areas that will need generous funding to be successful this year:

“Democrats Abroad are ready to defeat John McCain and expand our majorities in Congress with an historic worldwide turnout operation including the following activities:

“- Develop and implement GOTV plans in every Country Committee around the globe.

“- Provide funding for newspaper/online ads and targeted voter registration activities around the globe to bring thousands more Democratic absentee voters out to cast their ballot for Senator Obama and our targeted Congressional races.

“- Continue to hold our Take Back the Congress/Increase the Majority events in the fall.

“- Promote our online registration tool VoteFromAbroad.org, the most successful and user-friendly tool to register Democrats.

“- Building on Senator Obama’s appeal to the youth vote, systematically reach out to U.S. students studying abroad”

Just how much does a really effective campaign cost? A couple of examples:

$194,000 will pay for ten ¼ page ads in the International Herald Tribune; marketing our online tool www.VoteFromAbroad.org on the editorial pages

$18,000 will pay for a series of ads in the Stars & Stripes print edition because the voices of our military men and women are very important, especially in military vote heavy swing states like Virginia, Texas and Florida.

Stan also mentioned that each country committee has been asked to come up with a local marketing plan by July 15th and we will need lots of $$$$ to fund them.

Here’s the link to the DA secure donation page: https://secure.democratsabroad.org/contribute/

WW joins Stan in urging every reader to give to Democrats Abroad – the earlier the better!!

Thanks Stan!!

State by State

COLORADO. Republican Marilyn Musgrave has won two close elections in a row in a strong Republican district. Her close races have been attributed to her fanatical support for anti gay issues and her proposing the Marriage amendment to the constitution that would define a marriage as between a male and a female. Since 2006, she has toned down the rhetoric and stayed away from the issue - until now. She is back supporting the latest version of the amendment and the Cook Report now rates the race as a tossup between Musgrave and Betsy Markey. Other prominent supporters of the Marriage Amendment?

Louisiana Republican David Vitter and Idaho Senator Larry Craig

NORTH CAROLINA. Carl Munpower is the Republican nominee to face Dem. Heath Shuler in NC-11 this fall. Munpower is running a different kind of GOP campaign, calling for the impeachment of George W. Bush for not protecting America from illegal immigrants. The Polk County Republican party is not happy. The party has un-invited Carl from riding in the party float in this weekend’s Coon Dog Day Parade. The Polk county Republican Women’s Club also cancelled a speech by their candidate for congress.

Carl will walk in the parade. No word yet on his dog.

TEXAS. The Texas Medical Association has decided to withdraw their endorsement of Republican Senator John Cornyn after Cornyn voted to cut the payment to doctors fro treating Medicare patients. Cutting the pay of the rich is not the Republican way, John.
For one of the truly worst campaign ads of recent memory go to http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35mpAwMOlT4 .

Reading Recommendations.

a. “Political Memo: Obama Camp Thinks Democrats Can Rise in South” by Robin Toner at http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/us/politics/30south.html?adxnnl=1&fta=y&pagewanted=print&adxnnlx=1214989244-lFkSBKxZiS84djbcKilPgg . This kind of article appears every four years, but this time may be a serious attempt to peel off 3-5 states from the Republicans.

b. “The 10 Most Awesomely Bad Moments of the Bush Presidency” by Brad Reed at http://www.alternet.org/story/89686/ Use this as a debating tool; how many of the extra items mentioned did John McCain also support?

c. “Party ID Wars” Voters' Shifting Identifications Make It Important To Keep Numbers In Perspective” by Mark Blumenthal at
http://www.nationaljournal.com/njonline/mp_20080626_8995.php . To understand both national and state polling, please be aware of what the polling firms do with party identification; it makes all the difference in the results.

d. “House of Cards: You thought the housing crisis was bad? You ain’t seen nothing yet.” by Danny Schechter at
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20196.htm

e. “Preparing the Battlefield: The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran.” by Seymour M. Hersh at
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20203.htm. Whether it will be the Israelis or Bush, this articles clearly shows that we are not out of the woods yet on a pre-emptive attack on Iran.

f. “Law School to Plan Bush War Crimes Prosecution” Press Release: Massachusetts School Of Law at
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article20118.htm .

g. “Barack Obama's Remarks on American Economic Competiveness”
The full text of Barack Obama's economic speech in Flint, MI, as prepared at
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/06/barack-obamas-r.html

h. “Ugly: The Future of the Republican Party” by David Michael Green at
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/06/13/9592/

i. “Jujitsu in Action — The Smart Way to Fight Smears Against Obama”
by Evan Frisch and Joe Brewer at
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2008/06/13/9590/

j. “McCain's Straight Talk & Support For the Military” by BarbinMD
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/15/12281/2169/640/536330

k. “The collapse of SOFA” by smintheus at http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/6/15/20548/6991/487/536491 . This is not a trivial issue, as anyone who has ever worked and lived under a SOFA agreement will understand.

l. “I’m Voting Republican” at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FiQJ9Xp0xxU
Enjoy.

m. “The Four Things Necessary to Turn this Historic Opportunity into Progressive Realignment” by Robert Creamer at
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-creamer/the-four-things-necessary_b_106685.html
It’s not just the numbers that make me optimistic.

n. “McCain's War on Women” at http://progressohio.org/page/s/mccainwaronwomen . Another useful debate tool.

o. “McCain has diluted his rare reputation” by Paul West at
www.baltimoresun.com/news/nation/bal-te.infocus15jun15,0,4687694.story . Rather than concentrating on his age, bringing attention to Bush III and McCain’s constant flipflopping will bring more votes to our side this fall.

p. “Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio: In the United States House of Representatives
Monday, June 9th, 2008: A Resolution at
http://chun.afterdowningstreet.org/amomentoftruth.pdf. The 35 articles of impeachment against George W. Bush. Also a useful debate tool.

And finally… Below are the three categories of targeted house seats by the DCCC. More details (and ways to contribute) where the lists came from at http://dccc.org/page/content/redtoblue


Red to Blue: Open Seats
John Adler (NJ-03)
John Boccieri (OH-16)
Bobby Bright (AL-02)
Charlie Brown (CA-04)
Paul Carmouche (LA-04)
Gerry Connolly (VA-11)
Debbie Halvorson (IL-11)
Martin Heinrich (NM-01)
Mary Jo Kilroy (OH-15)
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-01)
Frank Kratovil (MD-01)
Ashwin Madia (MN-03)
Dan Maffei (NY-25)
Mike McMahon (NY-13)
Jon Powers (NY-26)
Linda Stender (NJ-07)
Harry Teague (NM-02)
Gary Trauner (WY-AL)
Red to Blue: Candidates for Change
Kay Barnes (MO-06)
Anne Barth (WV-02)
Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL)
Darcy Burner (WA-08)
Steve Driehaus (OH-01)
Joe Garcia (FL-25)
Jim Himes (CT-04)
Christine Jennings (FL-13)
Larry Kissell (NC-08)
Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
Bob Lord (AZ-03)
Betsy Markey (CO-04)
Raul Martinez (FL-21)
Eric Massa (NY-29)
Walt Minnick (ID-01)
Glenn Nye (VA-02)
Gary Peters (MI-09)
Mark Schauer (MI-07)
Dan Seals (IL-10)
Dina Titus (NV-03)


"The program will introduce Democratic supporters to new, competitive candidates in order to help expand the fundraising base for these campaigns.

"Red to Blue was a proven success in the 2004 and 2006 cycles. In 2004, the Red to Blue program raised nearly $7.5 million for twenty seven campaigns across the country with an average of more than $250,000 per campaign. In 2006, the Red to Blue program raised nearly $22.6 million for 56 campaigns with an average of $404,000 per campaign. Red to Blue was also responsible for solidifying the structure of dozens of campaigns and making a real difference for Democrats across America.

"The DCCC also announced 20 emerging races. In each of these races, Democratic candidates have generated excitement in their districts for their campaigns for change:"
Emerging Races
Sam Bennett (PA-15)
David Boswell (KY-02)
Colleen Callahan (IL-18)
Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-03)
Jill Derby (NV-02)
John Dicks (FL-09)
Judy Feder (VA-10)
Nick Leibham (CA-50)
Dan Johnson (NC-10)
Mike Montagano (IN-03)
Jill Morgenthaler (IL-06)
Tom Perriello (VA-05)
Bob Roggio (PA-06)
Steve Sarvi (MN-02)
Dennis Shulman (NJ-05)
Josh Segall (AL-03)
Michael Skelly (TX-07)
Annette Taddeo (FL-18)
El Tinklenberg (MN-06)
Vic Wulsin (OH-02)



The list is getting longer almost every week.

Best regards,

John McQueen
Am Götzenberg 2
69126 Heidelberg, Germany