Probability Matrix: Given the MOE and the Exit Poll deviation

TruthIsAll

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Fri Feb-25-05 07:58 PM
Original message

Probability Matrix: Given the MOE and the Exit Poll deviation

Edited on Fri Feb-25-05 08:12 PM by TruthIsAll

		Probability Matrix						
	Deviation from preliminary exit poll to the final vote						

		Exit Poll Margin of Error						
Dev.	1.00%	1.50%	1.75%	2.00%	2.25%	2.50%	2.75%	3.00%
		          1 in 						
1.00%	40	10	8	6	5	5	4	4
1.50%	609	40	22	14	10	8	7	6
2.00%	23k	223	80	40	25	17	13	10
2.50%	2.1mm	1.8k	391	140	68	40	27	20
3.00%	485mm	23k	2.6k	609	223	107	62	40
3.50%	288bn	416k	267k	3.3k	871	330	159	90
4.00%	450tr	11.5m	267k	23k	4k	1.1k	459	223

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