Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

North Carolina is contender for most fraud & glitches: new documentation

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
 
berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 01:43 AM
Original message
North Carolina is contender for most fraud & glitches: new documentation
http://www.flcv.com/northcar.html
http://www.flcv.com/othernc.html
http://www.flcv.com/mechlen.html
http://www.flcv.com/wakeconc.html

What has happened about the election they have to do over due to fraud/glitches in the first one?

Is anyone investigating the apparent widespread fraud and improper defaults, such as in 10% of Kerry vote in some counties being known to not be counted due to straight dem ticket vote default.
See above documentation.

Also the apparently fraud and official malfeasance in many counties.
Could this really have all been incompetance/faulty equipment rather than deliberate fraud in some of the cases?

Is anyone investigating?

Anything new?



Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
RaleighNCDUer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 01:48 AM
Response to Original message
1. Good questions. I live here, and I'm not hearing anything. n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Richard Steele Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 01:53 AM
Response to Reply #1
3. Nope, all quiet down here...nothing to see, move along!
Is this posted in the NC forum? It should be.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 03:45 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. I'm not from N.C. and don't know about N C forum
This is from a summary I did of election day reported irregularities
to the EIRS hotline. I summarized 25 states- 16 had touch screen switching and all had lots of other problems, fraud, malfeasance, manipulation by partisan officials.
http://www.flcv.com/ussumall.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Digit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 01:52 AM
Response to Original message
2. If I recall the exit polls for NC correctly...
It seemed like one of the states with the largest discrepancy.

I figured this was because John Edwards was FROM NC and they wanted to really give a smack to the Dem ticket in NC for that reason.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
SaveAmerica Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 09:48 AM
Response to Original message
4. Right now the focus is on fixing the mess that is voting in NC...
There are as many ways to vote in our state as there are ways to make BBQ, the fight now is to get every county on the same system of voting with a paper ballot and get clear laws on the books. Here's a post from the NC forum from WillYourVoteBeCounted who has done an excellent job of keeping us informed:

So far, it is the democrats in the NC State House who need to step up to the plate to support these bills/proposals.

*Please forward to all citizens concerned with election integrity*

Action alert for Paper Ballots in North Carolina Elections

House Bill 238 has been introduced in the North Carolina General Assembly by Rep. Verla Insko. It requires that any voting technology used in North Carolina produce paper ballots. The ballots must be visible to the voters ("voter-verified") and be used for recounts and randomized audits of electronic vote counts. See text of the bill at:
(http://www.ncleg.net/gascripts/BillLookUp/BillLookUp.pl... )

Please email, phone and/or fax your State Representatives and ask them support HB 238. Also ask your state senator to contact Senator Ellie Kinnaird to co-sponsor the companion bill that she will introduce in the Senate. In your messages, please ask for a reply and let us, the North Carolina Coalition for Verified Voting, ncverifiablevoting@yahoo.com, know how they respond.

Go here to contact your representative: http://www.ncleg.net/GIS/Representation/Who_Represents_...

For sample letter to send, and for more information on election problems, see our websites, www.ncvoter.net and www.blackboxvoting.com .

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

www.ncvoter.net
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
marions ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 11:28 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. Does anyone know
why there are so many documented problems in North Carolina? it seems there were problems everywhere in the state, with all sorts of different causes (judging by the links above). Is it that NC is actually worse than other states, or did more problems get documented? What is going on there?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Jo March Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 11:33 AM
Response to Reply #6
7. This state is the home of Jesse Helms and his ilk
There are quite a few "good old boys" here who are as dirty as they come. That's why we have so many problems.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 12:09 AM
Response to Reply #6
12. 2 reasons why so many documented problems
1. because NC has over 7,363 touchscreen machines in about 40 of it's 100 counties. The more of these you have, the worse your problems will be.

2. media more aware. We have been telling the media, the NCBOE, the county BOEs, the county commissioners, and national media that NC's paperless machines should have paper ballot.
We had rallies at the state legislature.
We began our campaign in the state in January 2004.
We tried to get a moratorium on purchasing any more paperless machines last March, 2004. We had a bill drawn for that in May 2004, but it was never heard for a vote. We sent our freedom of information requests to the AP's desk for our state legislation.

Also, we have early voting in our state, and lumping that in with mail in absentee, about 1/3 of all votes were cast before Nov 2, and election workers were dead tired exhausted, working 7 days a week, 12 hour days at least.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 11:24 AM
Response to Original message
5. A look at exit poll adjustments made in NC.
Edited on Sat Mar-05-05 11:26 AM by skids
Here is a cursory examination of what's useful in the available North
Carolina data, from the perspective of comparing it with the exit poll
data. The URL for that is:

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/enrs/main_primary.asp?ED=11xx02xx2004&EL=GENERAL&YR=2004&CR=A

One of the files, voterstats11xx02xx2004.txt, contains very granular
demographic information on voter registrations, providing not only
counts by each demographic group, but by all combinations of
demographic groups, on a per-precinct basis. That is to say, instead
of knowing that we have 45 Black voters registered in a specific
precinct, 60 registered Democrats, and 34 seniors, we know precisely
that we have 18 Black Democrat Seniors. This level of detail is rare
and useful. However, to collapse the numbers into the simpler,
ordinary terms people are used to looking at, here is how the
registrations in that file break down statewide:

Party DEM: 2580437 voters
Party LIB: 13045 voters
Party REP: 1909589 voters
Party UNA: 1024341 voters
Party RFM: 1 voters

Sex F: 3021379 voters
Sex M: 2488016 voters
Sex U: 18018 voters

Race : 19 voters
Race A: 14951 voters
Race O: 78740 voters
Race W: 4226473 voters
Race B: 1114798 voters

Race ?: 50 voters
Race M: 9253 voters
Race I: 47308 voters
Race U: 35821 voters

Age 18 - 25: 618622 voters
Age < 18 Or Invalid Birth Dates: 26222 voters
Age Over 66: 876676 voters
Age 41 - 65: 2388889 voters
Age 26 - 40: 1617004 voters

In addition to the voter registration file, we also have a turnout
statistics file, turnout11xx02xx2004.pdf. This gives turnout by race,
gender and party on a county-by-county basis. For this overview I'll
not get into individual counties and stick to the statewide totals.

NC SoS turnout:
Race : 19 voters
Race ?: 50 voters
Race A: 74% of 14951 = 11064
Race O: 48% of 78740 = 37795
Race W: 66% of 4226473 = 2789472
Race B: 59% of 1114798 = 657731
Race M: 76% of 9253 = 7032
Race I: 43% of 47308 = 20342
Race U: 68% of 35821 = 24358

We can use this to build a chart against the state NEP exit poll final
weighted results, and I am also including a count from the NEP raw
data. Note this count only represents all people interviewed by NEP.
It does not take into account which survey group they were in, so my
speculations as to how the weighting was done are just that and not to
be taken too seriously. Though these questions do seem to have N
values approaching the total number of NC respondants in the NEP
data set so if I am lucky, this is a valid assessment.


White Black Asian Other Unlisted
Exit poll 71 26 0 2
Raw Exit poll 73 22 0 2 2
SoS 79 19 0 2 1


This would suggest that the exit poll failed to interview whites, but
in the final adjustment, the numbers were tweaked to include less
whites (which should favor Kerry). NEP claims that whites had a 2%
lower completion rate than non-whites in North Carolina, so why they
did this is a mystery.


NC SoS turnout
DEM: 65% of 2580437 = 1677284
REP: 69% of 1909589 = 1317616
UNA: 54% of 1024341 = 553144
LIB: 57% of 13045 = 7435

Dem Rep Oth
Exit poll 39 40 21
Raw exit poll 38 38 23
SoS 47 37 16


Note that this one is a little squirrely. The actual question asked
by NEP was "do you consider yourself" not how the voter was
registered. Neglecting that, this would suggest that the NEP severely
under-interviewed democrats, but then weighted in slightly in favor of
Republicans. The more likely scenario, as we'll see below, is that
Democrats were more likely to "consider themselves" independents.
In either case, the weighting advantage goes to Bush here.


NC SoS turnout
Male 63% of 2488016 = 1567450
Female 65% of 3021379 = 1963896
Unlisted 70% of 18018 = 12613

Male Female Unlisted
Exit poll 41 59
Raw exit poll 44 55
SoS 44 55 0.3%


This would suggest that the NEP actually got an equal proportion of
males and females, but applied a final weighting *favoring* Kerry
(more females) on this demographic. NEP claims completion rates were
3% higher for females in North Carolina.

Unfortunately the SoS turnout figures do not include age. We have the
raw number of registrants, but not the percentage who voted. To see
what the NEP did, though:


raw weighted
Age - : 3 voters 0%
Age 18 - 24: 224 voters 10% 18-29 14%
Age 25 - 29: 175 voters 08%
Age 30 - 39: 453 voters 21% 30-44 33%
Age 40 - 44: 265 voters 12%
Age 45 - 49: 279 voters 13% 45-59 30%
Age 50 - 59: 365 voters 17%
Age 60 - 64: 179 voters 08% 60+ 22%
Age 65 - 74: 169 voters 08%
Age 75 - : 68 voters 03%



The younguns were weighted down in the final numbers and the seniors
weighted up. According to their report, completion rates were
extremely low among seniors in NC, so weighting them up is to be
expected. However, completion rates among the young were lower than
the middle-aged, so why they were weighted down rather than the
middle-aged group is a mystery. That would be a weighting that would
benefit Bush.

I am not going to compare the "hispanic" ethnicity question because
the compatibility between the SoS and NEP figures might be iffy.

The end result here is that either the SoS's data is very inaccurate,
or the NEP severely overweighted Black and female Republicans (and
Republicans among the entire population in general) and underweighted
the youth vote.

There is some very interesting work to be done combining the SoS
turnout demographics file with the voter registration demographics
file. Because demographics are broken out by county, it should be
possible to enhance the demographics to more decimal places by rubbing
these two files together, and the demographics could be divided
further into subgroups (e.g. a separate turnout number for Black
Non-latino Democratic Seniors.) In addition, the calculations of the
sampling error of the NEP presented above could be broken down both
regionally and into these more specific demographic categories, though
with the limited sample size and distribution there will be
granularity limits.

Finally, there is the absentee ballot file absentee11xx02xx2004.txt.

There are 814004 absentee voters listed, by name, in the absentee
ballot file. These include both mailed absentee ballots and "One
Stop" early voting ballots. However another analysis that peeled out
the results marked "absentee" from the precinct-by-precinct results
file (priprecinct11xx02xx2004.txt) showed another 200K worth of
absentee votes in the final totals. This would seem to indicate some
sort of reporting inconsistancy, for example, absentee lists from a
few counties missing. Further investigation of this file might
indicate wherein that problem lies. The analysis I refer to is at the
following URL and attempts to suggest if there was anti-Kerry fraud, it
was in the polling, not in the absentee vote. (And of course we
cannot rule out anti-Bush fraud in the absentee vote, though that
would run counter to the exit poll disparity.)

http://www.yuricareport.com/ElectionAftermath04/NorthCarolinaAnalysis.html

Because absentee voters are listed by name and with demographics, it
is possible to get exact demographics for the group of voters that are
in the file (this can also be used in the enhancement of the general
demographics.) The NEP poll also will give us a raw breakdown of the
respondants to telephone surveys. How meaningful these two results are
when compared depends entirely on the demographic disposition of that
extra 200K absentee voters which we know nothing about yet, so this
would be data best considered "preliminary"

Absentee file versus absentee/early voters polled by NEP callers:


SoS absentee data vs. NEP raw telephone poll data

Party DEM: 395505 voters 49% 35% 136 respondants
Party LIB: 1198 voters 0%
Party UNA: 113172 voters 14% 32% 122 respondants (includes
nonanswers)
Party REP: 304126 voters 38% 32% 122 respondants
Party RFM: 2 voters 0%
Sex F: 460924 voters 56% 55% 210 respondants
Sex M: 349524 voters 43% 45% 170 respondants
Sex Unlisted: 3556 voters 0%


What we can take from the above might be a suggestion that registered
Democrats consider themselves more independent when asked the NEP
question. Were this true it would emphasize the anti-Kerry weighting
above in the party affinity question.

No race or age figures are available in the absentee file, but for
comparison with the overall results, here are other NEP raw telephone
poll demographics:

Race Asian: 1 voters 0%
Race White: 286 voters 75%
Race Unanswered: 4 voters 0%
Race Hispanic/Latino: 5 voters 1%
Race Black: 71 voters 19%
Race Other: 13 voters 3%
Age 50 - 59: 67 voters 18%
Age 65 - 74: 59 voters 16%
Age 18 - 24: 21 voters 6%
Age 40 - 44: 30 voters 8%
Age Unknown: 1 voters 0%
Age 30 - 39: 63 voters 17%
Age 60 - 64: 53 voters 14%
Age 75 - : 27 voters 7%
Age 25 - 29: 20 voters 5%
Age 45 - 49: 39 voters 10%


Another interesting thing about the absentee file is that the ballots
are dated. It should be possible to construct a turnout graph of
early voting, by demographics, over time. In addition, the NEP data
was collected in three separate calls, so time-wise comparison of the
sampling may be possible, though the sample sizes would be very low.


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:19 PM
Response to Reply #5
23. exit polling- is it done during the early voting period?
1/3 of all NC citizens cast their votes before Nov 2, that is over
1 million voters. Were they included in the exit polling?

I voted on Nov 2, by the way, and there was no exit poll where I voted.

My understanding is that democrats prefer to vote early
(I don't, though - I think it is nuts to allow your vote to go an extended time before it is counted)

Republicans prefer to vote absentee by mail or on election day.

This is what one election director of an NC county advised me.

Is this right?

How do exit polls work when 1/3 of a state votes early?
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Jo March Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 11:35 AM
Response to Original message
8. There is a BBV meeting in NC on the 10th
Here are the details. I'll be going.

BlackBox Voting Public Forum in Pittsboro
Date: Thursday March 10, 2005
Time: 7:00 pm - 9:00 pm

Location: Central Carolina Community College, Bldg 2, Multipurpose Room
Street: 764 West Street (Hwy 64W)
City/State/Zip: Pittsboro, North Carolina

BlackBox Voting Public Forum - Find out how vulnerable our elections are, listen to North Carolina computer scientists about how easy it is to hack the vote, how your vote is less secure than a quarter in a one armed bandit. These guys have been studying electronic voting for years. Find out how you can help correct the problem.

Speakers:
Chuck Herrin, IT Certification Specialist,White Hat Hacker www.chuckherrin.com
David Allen, Sys Engineer and Publisher www.blackboxvoting.com
Justin Moore, Member, National Committee for Voting Integrity http://www.votingintegrity.org /

Chuck Herrin is a paid "White Hat Hacker" who is paid to test the systems security of Fortune 500 companies. Chuck demonstrates how easy it is to change votes in the main vote tabulator in many counties, if not all. In one system, it is possible to change the votes without leaving any evidence that it has been done. Chuck is so familiar with the vulnerabilities of computers, that he prefers that we keep them out of our election process completely.

David Allen is a certified systems engineer and owns a publishing business. David published the book "Black Box Voting and Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century. David recently served on the NC Legislature appointed Joint Select Committee on Electronic Voting.

Justin Moore is a 5th year doctoral student at Duke University's Computer Science Department. Moore has presented testimony to the federal election assistance commission, and more recently testified to the NC Committee on Electronic Voting. Moore also showed the myths and facts of computer hacking, the various weaknesses in North Carolina's various voting systems, and what caused many of the computer meltdowns.

This is a fascinating subject, you won't believe how vulnerable our voting systems really are.

Some additional info: The address of the CCCC Pittsboro campus is 764 West Street..that's actually Hwy 64W on the right on the way out of Pittsboro towards Siler City, or if you are coming from points west, on the left before you get into Pittsboro. The campus is only two large buildings; the forum is in Building number 2.

http://www.ncvoter.net/events.html
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
9. In Charlotte and will try to make it there
:kick:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
GetTheRightVote Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-05-05 11:32 PM
Response to Original message
10. In Charlotte and will try to make it there
:kick:
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 12:02 AM
Response to Original message
11. Election Officials in over their heads, bad equipment, many problems
The main glitches that could not be completely recovered from in NC:

1. County lost votes, about 4,438 votes forever gone on Unilect Machines.

2. 10% undervote in Burke County. slightly less than 4,000 votes either not cast or not tabulated for president. Common problem with Unilect machines, also high undervote for president in Pennsylvania.
Usually occurs if ballot design has the contest for president on the same screen where the "straight party" option is shown.

A pop up warning box can be programmed into the ballot, but often is not.

The NC democrats pushed through the straight ticket does not count for president a few decades ago. This is a fatal flaw.

3. Gaston County - we will never know how many people actually went to the polls, because not all precincts kept accurate records, the Diebold Technician was running the election, and there were multiple problems with the machines. (In January, 100 of the touchscreen machines were damaged by a leaky toilet, some suspected it was not an accident).

Most of the other problems with voting machines are problems with the central tabulators malfunctioning, and the correct results (as correct as DREs can provide) were manually obtained later.
The Craven County and Guilford County issues were with the ES&S Unity Election Management software (central tabulator).

The central tabulators could not count past 32,767.

See http://www.ncvoter.net/news.html for news articles related to
crashes.




Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Jo March Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 05:05 PM
Response to Original message
14. Kick for this
There are several groups that are working on the NC problems. There are also several people working very hard to get an election reform bill passed. NC Voter is working on this. I am working as well through VOTE.

I think that NC has a good grassroots movement for this. We are lucky in this area.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
marions ghost Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-06-05 10:09 PM
Response to Original message
15. KICK
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Jo March Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-07-05 07:51 PM
Response to Original message
16. another kick!! nt
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Kelvin Mace Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-07-05 09:45 PM
Response to Original message
17. We have a bill in the General Assembly right now
that needs your support.

Please go to VoteWatchNC.org to read up on the anti-BBV legislation.

David Allen
www.thoughtcrimes.org
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 03:01 PM
Response to Original message
18. Likely map of NEP precincts to counties.
To see how this was figured out, check the Ohio threads.

NEP#/DISTRICT/NEPGEO/NEPSIZEPLAC/NEPSIZEPLC3: # surveys and possible counties

Precinct 4/ 1/2/5/3: 38 voters Beaufort or Bertie
Precinct 5/ 1/2/5/3: 24 voters Beaufort or Bertie
Precinct 9/10/5/4/3: 46 voters Burk
Precinct 10/ 8/4/2/1: 50 voters Cabbarus
Precinct 12/10/4/4/3: 53 voters Catawba or Cleveland
Precinct 14/ 7/2/5/3: 72 voters Columbus
Precinct 16/ 3/2/4/3: 45 voters Craven
Precinct 17/ 8/2/3/2: 58 voters Cumberland
Precinct 18/12/3/4/3: 55 voters Davidson
Precinct 19/ 4/1/2/1: 79 voters Durham
Precinct 24/12/3/2/1: 16 voters Forsyth
Precinct 25/12/3/2/1: 44 voters Forsyth
Precinct 26/ 5/3/3/2: 37 voters Forsyth
Precinct 27/ 5/3/3/2: 51 voters Forsyth
Precinct 30/10/4/2/1: 51 voters Gaston
Precinct 31/ 9/4/3/2: 49 voters Gaston
Precinct 34/ 9/4/2/1: 29 voters Gaston
Precinct 37/ 6/3/3/2: 22 voters Guilford
Precinct 39/ 6/3/2/1: 49 voters Guilford
Precinct 46/11/5/5/3: 30 voters Jackson Hayward or Henderson
Precinct 48/ 2/1/3/2: 67 voters Johnson
Precinct 50/ 3/2/5/3: 46 voters Lenoir
Precinct 53/ 1/2/5/3: 32 voters Martin or Lenoir
Precinct 56/ 9/4/1/1: 50 voters Mecklenburg
Precinct 57/ 9/4/1/1: 29 voters Mecklenberg
Precinct 60/12/4/1/1: 43 voters Mecklenberg
Precinct 64/10/5/5/3: 51 voters Mitchell
Precinct 68/ 2/1/3/2: 17 voters Nash
Precinct 69/ 7/2/2/1: 51 voters Pender or New Harbor
Precinct 75/ 1/2/4/3: 33 voters Perquimans Pasqotank
Precinct 77/13/1/5/3: 14 voters Person
Precinct 81/13/3/5/3: 52 voters Rockingham
Precinct 82/ 6/4/3/2: 53 voters Rowan
Precinct 85/11/5/5/3: 50 voters Transylvania or Swain
Precinct 88/13/1/2/1: 49 voters Wake
Precinct 90/13/1/2/1: 43 voters Wake
Precinct 92/13/1/2/1: 45 voters Wake
Precinct 94/ 4/1/2/1: 67 voters Wake
Precinct 96/ 5/5/4/3: 67 voters Watauga
Precinct 97/ 1/1/4/3: 43 voters Wayne Wilson or Vance

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 04:40 PM
Response to Reply #18
19. How much was fact voting straight Dem ticket in N.C. & S.C. doesn't vote K
Kerry publicized and advised by poll workers?
I saw some EIRS cases where poll workers gave wrong advise on this that cost Kerry lots of votes in N.C. & S.C.(and other states)

http://www.flcv.com/northcar.html
http://www.flcv.com/southcar.html


This likely amount to a huge number of votes. I think they would show up as undervotes.
Anyone have data on undervotes by county or precinct?


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 04:50 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. I'll work on it.

I should be able to come up with a graph by precinct.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 05:27 PM
Response to Reply #20
22. Hrm...
Surprisingly the ballots cast figures seem not to be in the (otherwise thorough) data. Almost fishy actually. Perhaps individual counties have published.

With the large number of people who voted only for president in NC, it would be hard to really make any calls by comparing down-ticket votes.

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
skids Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 04:54 PM
Response to Reply #18
21. Current state of precinct reduction.
After determining that NEP precinct 9 might not be in Catawba after all, I loosened up the demographics check in my script by adding all people who did not tell the SoS their race or listed their race as something other than white, asian, or black to a padding number. Then I forced matching by the above county list. I'm not totally possible my previous Catawba prediction is off, but here is the new output of the script. When the number of matches is small, the possible precincts are listed.


Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 34: "33"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 56: "108"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 50: "LENOIR PH1","LENOIR W","LENOIR I","LENOIR FC","LENOIR T1","LENOIR K9","LENOIR K4","LENOIR N","LENOIR C"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 57: "107"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 24: "31"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 77: "PERSON ALVI","PERSON RX1A","PERSON BFRK","PERSON CUCL","PERSON ROX2","PERSON MTTZ","PERSON ROX1","PERSON ROX4"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 12: "48"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 82: "18"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 14: "21"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 18: "15"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 5: "15"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 16: "16"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 81: "23"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 53: "18"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 88: "75"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 92: "82"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 46: "56"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 85: "SWAIN WHCH","TRANSYLVANIA B1","TRANSYLVANIA B2","SWAIN BC2","TRANSYLVANIA PF","TRANSYLVANIA BD","TRANSYLVANIA B3","SWAIN BC1"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 64: "MITCHELL 1","MITCHELL 5","MITCHELL 6","MITCHELL 3","MITCHELL 4","MITCHELL 9"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 17: "23"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 68: "15"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 94: "74"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 31: "40"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 27: "61"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 48: "31"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 37: "70"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 4: "16"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 9: "13"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 25: "32"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 96: "WATAUGA 4","WATAUGA 3","WATAUGA 19","WATAUGA 5","WATAUGA 15","WATAUGA 14","WATAUGA 7"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 60: "44"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 39: "54"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 26: "61"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 30: "GASTON 4","GASTON 22","GASTON 36","GASTON 34","GASTON 33","GASTON 37","GASTON 35"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 97: "34"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 90: "77"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 19: "45"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 69: "30"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 75: "18"
Number of possible matches for NEP precinct 10: "35"

Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
WillYourVoteBCounted Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #21
24. Catawba new touchscreens in 2004, higher undervote
Catawba County switched to Hart Intercivic DREs this 2004.
Their undervote rate for most everything except the
presidential contest went way up over the 2000 level.

The new undervote rate in this county is very high:

Study: Catawba County switch to paperless voting coincides with jump in undervote rate of 40% - 130% higher than it was in 2000. 2000 results. link 2004 results. Study by Justin Moore:
2000 votes
(http://www.cs.duke.edu/~justin/voting/dat/2000/CATAWBA.html)
2004 votes
(http://www.cs.duke.edu/~justin/voting/dat/2004/CATAWBA.html)

There would have been more votes tabulated if they had kept their
optical scanners, most likely.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Mar-13-05 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #24
26. I don't understand your tables/statistics? don't see where undervotes show
Edited on Sun Mar-13-05 01:42 PM by berniew1
Also why would any county get rid of optical scan which are reliable and relatively low operating cost and have fewer security problems;also user unfriendly.

to go to DREs which are known/proven to be very unreliable, subject to lots of glitches, are very insecure; and have a high operating cost?


Doesn't make sense?

What is any advantage of DREs over optical scan?

other than their ease to manipulate and rig


Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
berniew1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-14-05 01:19 AM
Response to Reply #26
27. Does anyone have vote data by precinct in N.C or data by county
Edited on Mon Mar-14-05 01:20 AM by berniew1
sufficient for determining undervotes by County and precinct?

What ever happened to the investigation of the U.S. Senate race.
There was a suggestion it was fraudulent and a good study was posted on DU.

Unofficial Audit of NC Election: Comprehensive Case for Fraud

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=45003&mesg_id=45003

This is a pretty good case for fraud in North Carolina.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
Melissa G Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Mar-12-05 08:55 PM
Response to Original message
25. kick for bernview1! n/t
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 
DU AdBot (1000+ posts) Click to send private message to this author Click to view 
this author's profile Click to add 
this author to your buddy list Click to add 
this author to your Ignore list Thu May 02nd 2024, 11:56 AM
Response to Original message
Advertisements [?]
 Top

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC