Another probability analysis to illustrate why rBr is implausible....

[TruthIsAll]

	RELUCTANT BUSH RESPONDER PROBABILITY ANALYSIS					
Once again, we show how implausible the rBr hypothesis is
using simple binomial probabilities.
								
How to read the tables:						
Each Case assumes 1000 respondents and a given response rate.

For example, look at Case 1:
It assumes a 53% response rate						
For the scenario where Kerry wins the exit poll by 52-48%, the
probability that Bush would win 479 (54%) of the 887 who
refused to be interviewed is .02% (1 in 5000). 
	
								
			Response Rate Table					
Response rate	50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%
Responders	1000	1000	1000	1000
Refusers	1000	961	923	887		
Total		2000	1961	1923	1887		
								
CASE I								
Response rate							
53%			Bush Percent of Refusers			
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
887			444	452	461	470	479	488
Scenario:							
Kerry%	Bush%		Probability 					
56%	44%		0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
55%	45%		0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54%	46%		0.85%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
53%	47%		3.68%	0.83%	0.14%	0.02%	0.00%	0.00%
52%	48%		11.66%	3.62%	0.82%	0.13%	0.02%	0.00%
51%	49%		27.56%	11.50%	3.56%	0.80%	0.16%	0.02%
50%	50%		50.00%	27.28%	11.34%	3.49%	0.94%	0.16%
								
CASE II								
Response rate							
52%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
923			461	471	480	489	498	508
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Probability 					
56%	44%		0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
55%	45%		0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54%	46%		0.74%	0.12%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
53%	47%		3.40%	0.78%	0.10%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
52%	48%		11.20%	3.53%	0.68%	0.11%	0.01%	0.00%
51%	49%		27.16%	11.50%	3.15%	0.71%	0.12%	0.01%
50%	50%		50.00%	27.68%	10.55%	3.26%	0.74%	0.12%
								
CASE III							
Response rate							
51%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
961			480	490	500	509	519	528
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Probability 					
56%	44%		0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
55%	45%		0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
54%	46%		0.59%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
53%	47%		2.91%	0.56%	0.09%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%
52%	48%		10.16%	2.76%	0.62%	0.08%	0.01%	0.00%
51%	49%		25.71%	9.72%	3.01%	0.58%	0.09%	0.01%
50%	50%		50.00%	24.90%	10.41%	2.84%	0.65%	0.09%

[LightningFlash]

1. How many different ways does one have to show its implausible?

Before Mitofsky just rolls over and says "You're right...I just was ordered to lay it out as an easy exscuse."

It's over. The distraction doesn't do anything but distract, focus back on the real problem.

[kster]

4. kick.nt

[TruthIsAll]

2. HERE ARE CORRESPONDING TABLES OF BUSH PERCENTAGES

These are final Bush percentages, assuming he wins the
percentage of refusers (and overcomes the corresponding
astronomical odds) displayed in the original post.

CASE I								
Response rate								
53%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
887			444	452	461	470	479	488
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Final Bush Percentage					
56%	44%		46.82%	47.29%	47.76%	48.23%	48.70%	49.17%
55%	45%		47.35%	47.82%	48.29%	48.76%	49.23%	49.70%
54%	46%		47.88%	48.35%	48.82%	49.29%	49.76%	50.23%
53%	47%		48.41%	48.88%	49.35%	49.82%	50.29%	50.76%
52%	48%		48.94%	49.41%	49.88%	50.35%	50.82%	51.29%
51%	49%		49.47%	49.94%	50.41%	50.88%	51.35%	51.82%
50%	50%		50.00%	50.47%	50.94%	51.41%	51.88%	52.35%
								


CASE II								
Response rate								
52%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
923			462	471	480	489	498	508
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Final Bush Percentage					
56%	44%		46.88%	47.36%	47.84%	48.32%	48.80%	49.28%
55%	45%		47.40%	47.88%	48.36%	48.84%	49.32%	49.80%
54%	46%		47.92%	48.40%	48.88%	49.36%	49.84%	50.32%
53%	47%		48.44%	48.92%	49.40%	49.88%	50.36%	50.84%
52%	48%		48.96%	49.44%	49.92%	50.40%	50.88%	51.36%
51%	49%		49.48%	49.96%	50.44%	50.92%	51.40%	51.88%
50%	50%		50.00%	50.48%	50.96%	51.44%	51.92%	52.40%


								
CASE III								
Response rate								
51%			Bush Percent of Refusers					
Refusers		50.0%	51.0%	52.0%	53.0%	54.0%	55.0%
961			480	490	500	509	519	528
Scenario:								
Kerry%	Bush%		Final Bush Percentage					
56%	44%		46.94%	47.43%	47.92%	48.41%	48.90%	49.39%
55%	45%		47.45%	47.94%	48.43%	48.92%	49.41%	49.90%
54%	46%		47.96%	48.45%	48.94%	49.43%	49.92%	50.41%
53%	47%		48.47%	48.96%	49.45%	49.94%	50.43%	50.92%
52%	48%		48.98%	49.47%	49.96%	50.45%	50.94%	51.43%
51%	49%		49.49%	49.98%	50.47%	50.96%	51.45%	51.94%
50%	50%		50.00%	50.49%	50.98%	51.47%	51.96%	52.45%

[TruthIsAll]

3. THE GRAPH