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I’m going to start by assuming there will be a recount in Ohio, I saw in another thread that a request for one does not mean it will be granted but that does not seem to the consensus opinion.
I was somewhat disturbed to note that it could not begin until early December at the earliest, as I see it this means that we need to be aware of some of the potential outcomes now, and be ready to deal with them.
1. The recount occurs, there is no significant gain for Kerry on the basis of the votes cast, he still loses the state. – If this happens as far as I am concerned anyway the fraud issue is pretty much dead unless and until someone could produce truly irrefutable evidence that is occurred, which is not linked to statistical trends. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that something did go on in non paper trail counties, but without proof I don’t think such allegations would get much traction. Voter suppression would of course remain a problem which would have to be dealt with in future elections but in terms of tabulation, which seems to be the most obviously provable aspect of all this, if nothing happened in Ohio, I’d be pretty certain that nothing happened. Any fraud would absolutely have to be centered on there.
2. After closing the gap through provisional ballots before the recount, Kerry is found to have won the state by a few hundred or a few thousand votes. Depending on how close it would ultimately be, this would suggest to me that any fraud or mis-calibration of the optical scanners or the machine counters would, even if present, exist at a fairly low level and therefore be unlikely to effect Bush’s popular vote lead, additionally it would be very difficult to prove based on Ohio that anything happened deliberately under this scenario. What would happen next would depend on when the recount was completed.
i) If it were completed after the electoral college date and the provision where Congress has to choose between two slates of electors would come in play, Republican control of Congress coupled with Bush’s lead in the popular vote suggests that they would choose the Republican slate and therefore elect Bush. – This would not be without something of a public outcry of course and would have effects on his legitimacy, but I can’t see Congress choosing the Democratic slate under these circumstances
ii) If it were completed before the electoral college date and the election re certified , you would expect Kerry to inaugurated President, however I think its highly likely that the Republicans would push the Democrat electors hard for one or two to swap and they may even be successful. For the simple reason that if Bush were to have a decisive lead in the popular vote, they could play on the electors’ conscience and 272 is a fairly large number to influence even if you do have laws prohibiting changing the vote in some states, the appeal would no doubt have quite a bit of traction, and while it is true that the Republicans would be somewhat hypocritical in making it, it may well resonate among enough who complained that Bush’s first term was illegitimate to make the difference. In other words if Kerry wins just by Ohio under this scenario I think its fairly likely he would still not be President. It is therefore key, fraud, or not fraud that the other close states like New Mexico and Iowa be recounted as well, to provide something of a buffer. I would be very surprised if Bush kept his popular vote lead and lost Ohio and another state, but it could happen and we must be prepared for it The point is though that such action needs to take place, if only in the preparation stages because it will be too late in December
3. After the recount Kerry is found to have won Ohio by tens or hundreds of thousands of votes. This would provide much clearer evidence that at the very least there were serious errors in the machines doing the counting, and at most that there was a systematic attempt to fraudulently steal the election either way it would obviously change the dynamic of what happened on November 2nd quite considerably, it would mean that Florida and other states were firmly in play and it would at minimum provide serious doubts about Bush’s popular vote lead. Again the outcome depends on when the count is completed
i) If it is completed and certified before the electoral college date, the Republicans would certainly make a lot of noise, but I doubt they would be able to sway any of the electors, particularly if the wide scale repercussions of the result in Ohio were conveyed effectively and I would expect Kerry to be inaugurated in January .
ii) It is completed after the Electoral College date and Congress chooses between two slates. This I believe is the most complex of all the outcomes and it’s the one where work done now on other popular vote issues and places like Florida is most likely to pay dividends. On the face of it you would still expect Congress to chose the Republican slate out of pure partisanship but if outrage could be generated on a large enough scale it is just possible that they would do the right thing and vote for the Democratic slate. If it can be proved that the machines were unreliable, not just in Ohio but across the whole country it does of course put the entire election into serious question and if the case can be made effectively enough, it could be enough to persuade Congress or in the worst case make Bush entirely illegitimate in public perception and therefore limit what he is able to do, this would also one would hope ennoble the Democrats to fight somewhat harder in the Senate and the house. The New Hampshire recount might help to prove this, but I am sensitive to the suggestion that exit polls are often unreliable in New Hampshire and therefore nothing additional of any significance may be found there. The other avenues mentioned in Indiana, Kentucky North Carolina and particularly Florida should be carefully investigated To finally get to the point then which I wanted to start with, quite a few states seem to be certifying at the moment or have already certified. I have read, either here or elsewhere, that if no recount is requested within a few days of certification, ballots may be thrown away, memory wiped, in other words absolutely nothing will be provable in the future. As far as I understand it then these next few days, not weeks could be absolutely critical. Those that believe there was wide scale fraud or machine error may well have to act now in order to make the case truly effectively in future. This really might come down to a public opinion game in which the evidence must be available to convince, otherwise all that will probably happen is that the Republicans will be able to sling enough mud as to obscure what happened:
“it doesn’t matter if Kerry won Ohio Bush still won the popular vote by over 3 million” –
“but that’s not possible if Kerry won Ohio by (for example 400,000 votes), can’t you see that the level if alteration that happened in Ohio must have happened elsewhere ”
“So what? That’s only supposition, You don’t have any proof, the results are clear and they haven’t been formally challenged”
Etc.
Now they may be able to sling enough mud anyway but having documented proof of nationwide problems with results will be much harder for them to ignore.
My overall point is twofold. Firstly whatever happens it is absolutely critical that the recount be finished before the Electoral College votes, the importance of that simply cannot be overestimated. Secondly, if there really was widespread machine error or fraud every day could be critical at the moment in terms of proving that, the fact that the Ohio recount is likely to be in December could distract people from that very real fact, and the work could have a genuine effect on who is inaugurated in January
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