Kerry will win if the Ohio Recount process is fair and counts all votes

[berniew1]

My understanding is that the 93,000 figure is undervotes, not spoiled ballots, which includes overvotes. If someone has information to the contrary, please let me know. I also understand that Ohio law is very unfavorable to overvotes.

Second, my math doesn't include the usual "errors" and "mistakes" that get made, almost invariably in favor of the Republican. Who'da thunk it? Or "machine errors" in Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties (I believe there are potentially a lot of votes in Franklin, because the turnout numbers seem very off in several precincts in Columbus, including where I worked on Election Day, and I've heard similar questions raised in Cleveland as well). So I don't think that my analysis is anything approaching a best case scenario, but a reasonable middle ground.

Bottom line: is this a 100-1 shot? NO WAY . Is it a slam dunk for our guy? Similarly, absolutely not. If I had to lay odds right now, I'd say it's 50-50. If that sounds chickenshit, sorry; but I bet it's better odds than you thought when you woke up today. ;-)

Update: OK, based on some comments (not the love notes, but some other ones), another math exercise is in order.

I assumed 90% of the provisionals and 90% of the undervotes would count. A number of posts (not the trolls, just the pessimists -- nothing wrong with that, just not who I am) said I was too optimistic. OK, fair enough -- let's try a different math problem.

Let's say only 70% of the provisionals count -- a bit higher than the 2/3 being reported in Cleveland -- but let's go with it. 70% of 155,000 is 108,500. Let's assume 90% are for Kerry (there's no reason to question that right now -- they are what they are, after all). That would mean 97,650 votes for Kerry and 10,850 votes for Bush, a lead for Kerry of 86,800. Subtracting that from Bush's current lead of 132,000 yields a Bush lead of 45,200.

Now we move on to the undervotes. If 90% is too high for the number to be counted (unlike provos , there is a standard and a history to go with it), let's use 80% instead, to be conservative (no pun intended). 80% of 93,000 is 74,400. Use the same percentage (80%) for Kerry (again, no reason to change here -- the ballots are what they are). 59,520 votes for Kerry, 14,880 for Bush, a net of 44,640. So now the lead for Bush is 560 votes -- gee, isn't that really close to 537? And remember, we haven't even touched the other aspects of a recount (some overvotes may count, not as many as we'd like, and who knows what may be under those voting machine rocks when they get turned over in the recount). WE ARE STILL IN THE GAME.

If you think I'm wrong, please tell me. Don't shout at me, don't insult me; tell me, show me. I'm an optimist, I can't help it, it's who I am. You pessimists out there, poke holes in my balloon. A few have tried, and I've tried to respond. It's your move. Have at it. I'm ready for ya.

Update : Last update. In comments, ineedalife, after calling me a "rube," then said my calculations were "naive." So just for him, here's a worst-case scenario.

Only 70% of the provisionals get counted. That's 108,500 votes. Kerry gets 85% rather than 90%. That's 92,225 for Kerry and 16,275 for Bush. Lead for Bush is now 56,050.

On the undervotes, only 70% get counted, and they break for Kerry 70-30 rather than 80-20. Of the 93,000 undervotes, that's 45,570 for Kerry and 19,530 for Bush, knocking the lead down by another 26,040 votes.

The lead is now 30,010 votes, with the recount still to go. Overvotes. Machine errors. Shenanigii (love that word). Absentees (at least some, from what I can tell). The margin will narrow further, maybe completely.

OK, so Bush wins by 5,000 votes. Or 10,000. Does that make you feel worse than you do now, or better? And remember, this is clearly the WORST CASE; it could easily get a lot better. Take that mandate and shove up Dick Cheney's ass. Fuck mandate, it's more like 2000 Redux. I feel better. Don't you?

Jonathan S. Shurberg [e-mail] is a self-employed trial attorney residing with his wife and two children in Silver Spring, MD. He has been licensed as an attorney since 1991, and has operated his own law practice in Silver Spring since 1996, concentrating in the areas of criminal defense and personal injury. Active in Democratic politics since 1982, he has been a strong supporter of progressive and Democratic causes, most recently serving as a volunteer attorney for the Kerry-Edwards Election Protection program in Columbus, Ohio on Election Day 2004.

[madison2000]

1. I sure hope this is right

It would be like falling asleep in hell and waking up in heaven.

[Blueguy]

2. My first post - but your totaly using wrong numbers.

"Only 70% of the provisionals get counted. That's 108,500 votes. Kerry gets 85% rather than 90%. That's 92,225 for Kerry and 16,275 for Bush. Lead for Bush is now 56,050.".

http://www.ohvotesuppression.blogspot.com/

Summary of provisional ballots count - UPDATED 11/27/04
Note: 65 of 88 counties have reported.

Current % of provisionals being counted: 77%

Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +36,050
Kerry +32,490

Bush is ahead currently with 77% of the provisional ballots cast. After the provisionals are counted he will have increased its lead (it seems). So your whole theory gives false hope.

[berniew1]

31. Election Supervisor has only posted results for Bush counties so far

The Election Supervisor is making a major effort to prevent a recount in Ohio, which would should Kerry would have won a fair election where all eligible votes were counted. He's slowed the provisional recount process and only posted Bush counties so far, to give the appearance that a recount is unnecessary.

But also note that its a matter of record that the difference in % of provisional votes being counted is due to official malfeasance, not due to voters not being eligible voters or being at fault in the process. Thats the point of Kerry clearly wins if fair process is used. If you don't count the Dem and minority votes as a matter of process its clear that Bush wins.

See the Dr. Phillips documentation on this.

[Blissfulbride]

32. The recount in OH may not happen

If counties continue to successfully enforce restraining orders.

The following is just one of numerous accounts re: the court orders from Ohio Voter Suppression News:
--------------
"Wednesday, November 24, 2004
Courts not cooperating with recount advocates

A federal judge on Tuesday denied the Glib's request for a recount of Ohio ballots even before the official count was finished. The Dispatch has more here.

Perhaps more importantly, a Delaware County judge also on Tuesday granted a temporary restraining order sought by the county's Board of Elections to block Green and Libertarian presidential candidates from forcing a recount.

Also from today's Dispatch:
County Prosecutor David Yost, the board's legal adviser, said he was pleased that Common Pleas Judge W. Duncan Whitney granted the temporary order. The board is seeking a permanent injunction to quash the recount request . . .

In the Delaware County case, the elections board wants to block a recount both before and after certification.

"To ask taxpayers to fund someone's political hobbyhorse when there's no possible chance of a different outcome seems to be an utter waste," Yost said. "There's better uses for that money in Delaware County and, I suspect, in other places around the state."

Yost couldn't immediately estimate the cost of a recount in the county, but said it would be "substantial."

This is the latest ingredient in a thickening legal soup.

Delaware County is apparently the first county to seek a court order blocking a recount, said Carlo LoParo, spokesman for Secretary of State J. Kenneth Blackwell. Other counties, however, are thinking about it, he said.

Keith Cunningham, director of the Allen County Board of Elections and incoming president of the Ohio Association of Elections Officials, said he might mobilize other counties to resist a recount, the Associated Press reported.
Although they are nominally bi-partisan, Republicans have the upper hand in all county Board of Elections. This combined with the fact that even many Democratic reps on the BOE feel the recount is pointless, suggests that there will be many more BOE's joining this effort to stop the recount before it gets started. Further, the BOEs are guaranteed to emphasize and/or exaggerate the costs above and beyond the $150,000 that is required by those requesting a recount and - in at least this narrow area - those seeking the recount will probably lose this PR battle."
------------------

My last hopes for getting Kerry into the white house in '04 are resting on this recount and I will be very disappointed if the venture doesn't happen.

I have three goals this post election season.
1) to get a recount that puts Kerry in the white house in 1/05
if that fails, I'll settle for
2) a scandal that wipes that smug grin off the shrub's face
and finally, if that fails,
3) I hope to improve the integrity of our voting process so that the repugs can never again steal an election.

This is two presidential elections in a row -- I don't know if I could live through another -- Hell, I don't know if America will make it through another 4 years of the shrub!

Does anyone know how the glibs might get around these restraining orders?:(

[righteous1]

34. Your getting close

It appears that JK will pickup about 15,000 votes in the provisionals. That would bring Bushs lead down to approximately 119,000. 93000 undervotes ,overvotes, etc. a VERY optimistic scenario would be 50% of thiose could be determined (in Fla in was less than 30) 47000x 80% = 37,000- 10000(B)= net 27,000

[berniew1]

3. More support for Kerry win in Ohio Recount if the process is fair

From a different number cruncher, similar results:

http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/summary.htm
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cleveland.htm
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/ohio.htm
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/cameron.htm
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/uncounted.htm
http://web.northnet.org/minstrel/columbus.htm


The Ohio process is systematically preventing the count of eligable voters, especially minorities; extremely widespread and systematic voter suppression of minorities and college students.
www.flcv.com/ohiov04.html and VotersUnited.com web page

But even with this, the recount vote count will be close if the recount process is fair.

Kerry clearly would have won in Ohio with a fair election process.

[Blueguy]

4. Theory not reality...

Its all Theory.. The REALITY says right now bush is winning the provisional ballot totals.. ALL the people saying 85% of those ballots are going to Kerry.. are 1000000% wrong as we speak, right now..

Current % of provisionals being counted: 77%

Current "additional" vote count:
Bush +36,050
Kerry +32,490


77% in bush is winning... Kerry could pull ahead in this count, but its mathematically impossible for kerry to get more then an extra +30,000 votes. Bush would be up +106,000 votes after everything is fully counted. We would have to find MAJOR fraud.

[New Earth]

5. he said the RECOUNT, not just the provisionals

Kerry will win if the Ohio Recount process is fair and counts all votes

[Blueguy]

6. Recount with standards... The vote will remain the same...

If the recount goes forward with the standards that are in the law.. Those ballots that are rejected, will be rejected again. All the undervotes will remain undervotes. They have very very very clear undervote rules.

Do you really think we are going to FIND 136,000+ votes out of the thin air? Maybe if it was another state, but not with Blackwell there we arent. He isnt going to recuse himself, the courts are owned by the republicans, the house is owned by the republicans in that state...

Where do you expect to find these votes? LOL

Now maybe if there is fraud found and someone counted an extra 150,000 votes for bush.. then fine.. but unless that theory happends.. we are going to watcht he chimp for 4 more years, period, end, game, match, gameover.

[Stand and Fight]

7. Good Catch

Good catch Faye.

[Blueguy]

8. Provisional Ballots are MAILED back to the voter if they rejected.

If the provional ballots are rejected they arent sitting in the counting office. They are mailed back to the voter telling them why it was rejected. Right there, EVERY rejected voter would have to show up during the recount.

[ClassWarrior]

9. I've volunteered to go help with Ohio!!

Who's with me??

NGU.

[Blueguy]

12. What are you going to help with?

What are you going to help with? If there is a recount your not going to be able to be there when they count the votes.

So what are you helping with exactly?

[Imajika]

10. There are not enough votes...

I just don't know how it can be any more clear. There are NOT enough votes to change the outcome in Ohio. The Kerry camp knew that on November 3rd - that is why he conceded.

It's really not particularly complicated. There are NOT enough votes in Ohio to give Kerry a victory. The provisional ballots are not going to help Kerry much - and his election team knew it. The absentee ballots are not going to help Kerry much either, and again - the Kerry campaign understood this. Additionally,the undervotes/overvotes would not make enough of a difference even combined with the outcome of the provisional and absentee count. All three combined just do not offer enough additional votes to change the final outcome in Ohio.

I am all for recounting the votes. Hell, recount them everywhere, the more the better. The exercise in recounting the votes is good for the system, and might help uncover whatever fraud there may have been. But at the end of the day, there are NOT enough outstanding votes to flip Ohio. Hang onto the fantasy if you wish, but, as horrible as it is, Bush has carried Ohio, and will be inaugurated in January. It sucks, but that is just the way things are.

Imajika

[Blueguy]

11. Of course its not complicated.. Some refuse to understand it.

People will use every excuse, tinfoil hat theory so they dont have to digest the fact we cant win in Ohio. Now listen, if some comet comes out of the sky with an extra 150,000 Kerry votes, im all for it. But, im not going to hold my breath.

[ZRB]

13. Then why

are the Ohio authorities using every trick in the book to delay the recount? What have they got to lose?

I agree that provisionals and spoiled ballots are not enough, but we don't know how many "computer malfunctions" might have happened. 4000 votes here, 4000 votes there, could have made the difference.

The only hope for the recount is that fraud is uncovered. I don't think anyone who's aware of the current provisional count still thinks a recount would flip the state if there was no fraud.
Obviously there aren't enough outstanding votes.

[Blueguy]

15. Simple..

Because KERRY DIDNT ASK FOR IT. If Kerry did we wouldnt have had any problems. Some putz with 26 votes is asking for it. Why would someone want to pay 1.5 million for some shmuck that got 26 votes? Its retarted in there eyes.

[ZRB]

17. Who is this "someone"

who will pay the 1.5 million?

That's the total cost spread throughout the state, and that is not a lot of money when democracy depends on it.

Besides, delaying the recount won't change the cost. They are deliberately delaying it so that the count won't be finished until AFTER the electors meet. Why is that? It's 1.5 million either way, so why not get it over with?

Oh, that's right...

[CementDude]

20. I'm with you - we can't win with the Glibs leading the charge..

I've been saying this in a bunch of threads.

Because it's the Glibs asking, the county BOEs and local governments can gripe about the excessive cost, waste of money and human resources, and what they consider to be - get ready, it's an "F" word of their own - FRIVOLOUS request. Why is it frivolous? Because the Glibs lost by such a humongous margin - less than .5% of the vote - that there is NO POSSIBILITY of a recount favoring them (in other words - handing them the state's electoral votes).

Mark my words. A judge *will* rule that the Glibs recount request be denied. That's assuming Kerry/Edwards doesn't finally step up and request it themselves. I still believe that if they do, and they use their army of attorneys and 50$+ million of cash, they will be an unstoppable force and will truly ensure *every vote is counted* in Ohio.

[Blissfulbride]

33. How do we get Kerry to do that?

[New Earth]

14. Blueguy you do have a point

i think we should all just give up. you know, the world ends tomorrow. :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes: :eyes:

[Blueguy]

16. There is your way, there is my way, and then there is reality.

Reality for some of you havent sunk in yet... We all helped kerry for years and lost.. it hurt bad.

If you are simply looking for fraud without expecting to change the election results, thats a good cause.

If you actually think you will change the outcome of the election, you are going to have such a let down for the 2nd time. It hurt enough the 1st time.. I dont need tinfoil hat hope.

[New Earth]

18. that's great

but your doomsday predictions aren't going to hold any one here back from continuing to investigate.

[DoYouEverWonder]

26. Quit making excuses and just count the votes

Problem solved. Then we will know who won and we can get on with our lives.

But there is no reason in the world not to count the votes and then recount them by hand if necessary. You should be able to come up with the same number twice, you would think?

The problem is that so far these vapor vote systems are totally unreliable. What a shame.

[Mandate My Ass]

28. "digest the fact we cant win in Ohio"

Then why in another thread did you advise another poster to forget Florida and focus on Ohio? :think:

[bleever]

19. R's will do everything to delay because K can't win?

Aren't these the folks anxious to wave their mandate in our faces?

Something about the pessimism doesn't compute.

Godspeed, ClassWarrior.

[Paligal]

21. I don't think the recount will happen

I think Blackwell will wait until Dec. 6 to certify the election, and then they will claim that there is not enough time to do a recount before the 13th, and that it will cost the state too much money, and they will throw a cog in the wheel at every turn until time runs out.

[CementDude]

22. That's exactly right..

There will no be a recount as long as it's the Glibs asking. A judge will issue a restraining order.

If Kerry/Edwards step up, things could be different. It doesn't look like that's likely to happen at this point.

[pat_k]

23. That is exactly wrong

He can certify. He can even appoint electors. But I doubt he will. Whatever he does, the recount goes forward. If the outcome of the recount is that Kerry won, then a slate of Kerry electors gets appointed. If a Bush slate was already chosen then both the Bush and Kerry Electoral Votes are conveyed to Congress. Congress would determine which to count. Heaven help them if they count the Bush votes when Kerry has been proven the winner. I'd almost like to see them try.

Electors are appointed after December 7th all the time. In fact, even in 2000, I think a number of states didn't appoint electors until nearly Christmas. And some year, don't recall which, Hawaii took until January 3rd.

Don't allow fascist thinking about dates and the law infect your thinking. NO date in law is immutable. Higher principle or higher law trumps deadlines all the time.

When you get hung up on dates or other legal technicality more often than not you are parroting fascist propaganda. Please don't. Please challenge anyone who is. Legal technicality cannot trump reality or the consent of the governed.

We the People are the soveriegns here. We hear the words, but most have ceased to live them or even believe them. We must internalize our founding principles. It is these principles that must energize our efforts on the election and as we talk to each other or reach out to or confront people in positions of power (whether that power is in the political realm or the public square). I believe in these principles and have watched people at our Meetups wake up as they are reminded of the fundamental truths.

To secure these rights , governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed... Whenever any form of government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the right of the people to alter or abolish it, and to institute new government, laying its foundation on such principles, and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their safety and happiness.

--Thomas Jefferson: Declaration of Independence, 1776. ME 1:29, Papers 1:429

[Laelth]

24. I'm sick of low-posters telling me to give up hope.

Seriously, what do I have to lose by hoping? What do I have to gain by fighting? Why do you care?

makes me suspicious ...

-Laelth

[helderheid]

25. My thoughts exactly.

Even though I don't have a high post count. ;)

[pat_k]

27. There are many ways to win

The recount is NOT the only option. There are other options both legal and political.

For example, Writ of Mandamus. See posts 1212, 1213, and 1214 in the Grand Theft Presidency 2004 discussion on TableTalk.

Congressional objection to and rejection of electors. You can demand these actions now.

Discrimination suits.

We the People are the soveriegns here. Whether it's 10 of us, 100,000 of us, or 10,000,000 of us, we who know we must are fighting for the integrity of the Election 2004 and fighting for our founding principles.

We've had some amazaing success too. Ian Solomon's Op Ed is a BIG DEAL. The Baltimore Sun is essentially a "Beltway" paper.

That there has been anything at all in the MSM is also a big deal.

We have Randi Rhodes, and her show reaches millions.

Don't despair. The recount probably won't overturn the election, but it does not need to for us to win. We have other fronts in the battle.

[Imagevision]

29. Kerry could win? - not even if he had a landslide!

There comes a time when "John" has to step up to the plate otherwise it will be too late to claim Ohio if he does win i...fraud,glitches whatever...he said he had our back's covered...after Jan. 6th we'll all know where "John" stands....just a matter of time.

I only hope John Kerry doesn't end up making Bushit look good?

[Imagevision]

30. KERRY WILL ALSO WIN IF HE EXPOSES VOTER-FRAUD

EVEN IF THE ELECTION DEOSN'T FALL TO KERRY...I KNOW FOR A FACT THAT THERE ARE COUNTLESS MILLIONS WHO WOULD LIKE TO BE ASSURED THEIR ELECTION ISN'T RIGGED AND FIXED FOR THE HIGHEST BIDDER.

AND IF IT PROVES THAT ELECTIONS HAVE BEEN FIXED FOR SOME TIME NOW AS I PERSONALLY BELIEVE --- THEN IT'S EVEN MORE REASON TO CATCH THE CROOKS BECAUSE THEIR WAYS JUST DON'T SEEM TO BE WORKING FOR NOBODY BUT THEMSELVES -- JAN. 6TH...KERRY? SHIT OR GET OFF THE POT.