If the Pats lose on Saturday, this guy is going to look awfully smart.

[WilliamPitt]

Green is spot-on with a lot of this, especially the stuff about our soft run defense. I spotted it back in game 2, when Bufallo's Lynch ran all over us, and it hasn't gotten better since. We score so prolifically and quickly that opponents have to abandon the run and pass wildly to catch up, so it hasn't really been exploited as the glaring weakness it is.

I've been able of late to quickly tell the difference between homer Patriots fans and astute football fans who back the Pats: the homers aren't worried about Jacksonville...but the rest of us are. This could be an interesting weekend.

===

I said it before, I'll say it again -- Jags will beat Pats
By Jeremy Green
Scouts Inc.

Nearly a month ago, I wrote a blog that said if they met in the playoffs, the Jacksonville Jaguars would beat the New England Patriots. Apparently, not everyone agreed. My inbox was flooded with hate mail and questions about my sanity. Some people wanted to know whether I had a recent concussion that went untreated. Eventually, the e-mails softened and users told me it was moot because the Jaguars would not even advance out of the first round to meet the Patriots.

Well, thanks to San Diego and Jacksonville winning their wild-card playoff games, my predicted matchup is here: Jags against the Patriots. So am I ready to take it back? Absolutely not. Despite the mild forecast (I was hoping for some snow and wind), I'm still picking the Jaguars.

First of all, it all starts with a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T. Aretha Franklin sang about it and the Jaguars are looking for some of it. The Jaguars went 11-5 in the toughest division in the NFL -- the AFC South -- and would have gone 12-4 had they played their starters in Week 17. The Patriots played in the dismal AFC East. After going 16-0, I will call them the best regular-season team of all time, but six of those wins came against the Bills, Dolphins and Jets, who were a combined 12-36. Still, despite that, the Patriots have eight Pro Bowlers while the Jaguars had zero. OK, Fred Taylor got in this week due to an injury to Willie Parker, but that's not exactly a rousing show of respect. I know Jacksonville coach Jack Del Rio will be reminding his players all week that they had no Pro Bowl players voted in by their peers, opposing coaches or fans. He will be telling his team the Patriots' coaches, players and fans don't respect them since those are the people who make up the voting process. The Jaguars will be motivated.

Secondly, I don't really care what the Patriots' defense is ranked -- it is overrated. Yes, they were fourth overall, 10th against the run and fourth in scoring defense. Those are great stats, but they are misleading. The Patriots' run defense was not very good against Dallas, which averaged 6.2 yards per carry. Or Indianapolis, as Joseph Addai ran for 112 yards. Or Baltimore (Willis McGahee had 138 yards) or the New York Giants, who averaged over four yards a carry. The common denominator is those last three games were close. The Patriots' run defense ranking looks good, but it's a mirage. It's that high because the Patriots blow people out and force them to throw. You know what I love about the Jags? They don't get blown out. Teams that don't commit penalties don't get blown out. Teams that take care of the ball don't get blown out. Teams that can run the ball don't get blown out.

Speaking of that run game, the Jaguars have big-time running backs in Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew. They also have a ticked-off offensive line that gets overlooked despite its success. Taylor and Jones-Drew don't make miracles happen every week on their own. Vince Manuwai, one of the most physical guards in the NFL, should have been a Pro Bowler. He is an excellent athlete who can get to the second level, and his ability to reach veteran ILBs Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau will open up the Jacksonville run game. The Patriots have an excellent defensive line and it gets much more hype than the Jaguars' offensive line. But the Jaguars won't back down from anyone. They look at this Patriots defensive line and believe it's just another opportunity to prove they are tougher and more physical.

And in a twist, what the Jaguars do best on offense is also their best defense against the amazing Patriots offense. There really is not a defensive scheme yet devised to stop the Patriots' offense. It is the most explosive attack we have seen in a long time, but know this: New England won't be able to run on Jacksonville. Pittsburgh ran it 26 times for a 1.7 average Saturday night, so the Patriots will throw the ball. The Jaguars' weak link is the back end of the defense. How do you protect your pass defense if you are the Jags? You run the ball. Then you run the ball again. Then you run the ball some more. The best way to beat the Patriots' offense is to leave it standing on the sideline. Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Co. can't beat you if they are not on the field.

More: http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs07/columns/story?columnist=green_jeremy&id=3187786

[hughee99]

1. Certainly a good argument,

the Pats are weak on run defense, even more since Colvin went down and they're not able to rest the other regulars (Seau in particular) as much. One thing about the Jags, though, is that they are vulnerable to an effective passer. Once Big Ben got his head out of his ass in the second half, he was able to move the ball effectively with a series of short and mid-range passes (something the Pats are even better at). They scored on 4 of their 6 second half possessions with one ending in a punt and one ending in a fumble. Even with 2 picks in Steelers territory, they still came out with only a 2 point win. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Pats put 8 in the box against them pretty much all day and make Garrard try to beat them, something he has not really been called on to do this year. I think if Brady can avoid the picks (which he's been pretty good at doing this year, about 1 every 50 attempts) the Pats will still be able to pull out a "W".

My prediction, Pats 34, Jags 27, Pats don't cover the spread.

I wouldn't be surprised to hear this is hanging in the Pats locker room somewhere either.

[MrSlayer]

2. Bah. The Pats are playing a meaningful game for the first time in months.

Even with just going through the motions a few games they went undefeated. This team is going to be ready. I wouldn't be surprised if they kill the Jags. They are not losing this game.

[WilliamPitt]

3. That's just what this guy thinks

http://www.boston.com/sports/nesn/wilbur/sports_blog/blog/2008/01/08/why_the_jaguars_dont_stand_a_chance/

[MrSlayer]

4. He's right.

I like the Jags but once you take away their running game they have nothing. The defense is going to feast. The Colts are going to be a much tougher battle. If the Patriots get to the Bowl they win. The NFC sucks.

[trumad]

5. This guy is a Johnny come lately

let him come on DU a few months back and diss the Pats... now that takes balls.

[joeybee12]

6. True, the Jags are looking for respect, but so are the Pats....

...16-0 and far too many people dish them.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

7. 28-10. Pats.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Should be a routine victory

Jacksonville will play hard but they simply don't have enough weapons. Check out the halftime scores of the two relevant games, when the Jaguars played Indianapolis. Both games were double digit edge at halftime.

I gave -11 here. Now it's up to -13.5. I'm amazed Jacksonville got so much respect, to open only +11 or +11.5.

The only thing Jacksonville has in its favor is they were not beaten by NE this season. It's going to be home Fury of Anti-Revenge for NE vs. the Colts if that game materializes, and would have been the same against Pittsburgh. But Jacksonville is a fresh foe so the beginning of the game won't be an avalanche in terms of intensity level. Slow decisive stepladder win.