Curlin leans toward running

[two gun sid]

From DRF:
Less than 24 hours before he would need to be pre-entered in the Breeders' Cup Classic, Curlin worked between races on Monday at Santa Anita, his move taking on even more interest from wider circles with Big Brown having been retired Monday.

The $5 million Classic on Oct. 25 was anticipated as a matchup between the two most prominent horses in racing in 2008, Big Brown and Curlin. Big Brown's connections had committed to the race, but those entrusted with the care of Curlin have been circumspect about his participation because of uncertainty over how Curlin will handle Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface. Curlin has never raced on a synthetic surface.

Curlin's work on Monday - five furlongs in 59.11 seconds in company with Hawaii Calls, a stablemate from the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen - was designed to most approximate the conditions Curlin would face in the Classic, should he run. It was a sunny afternoon, with a high temperature in the upper 70s, and a holiday crowd was on hand for the races. Asmussen and owner Jess Jackson had until Tuesday at noon Pacific to decide whether to pre-enter Curlin in the Classic, but after the work Monday they seemed to be leaning toward running.

"I'm extremely pleased with everything Curlin said to us - how he worked, and galloped out," Asmussen said. "I'm very anxious to see how he is in the morning. I want to see the same things. To this point, I'm extremely pleased."

http://drf.com/news/article/99039.html

[aaronbees]

1. Curlin better go in the race

Sounds like a good work and faster than he typically works. Time to crank him up. I really want to see something special from him here in the BC Classic, which is likely to be his last race stateside if they choose to go to the Japan Cup.

I bet the race will get some new additions now. The way it was looking Big Brown may have been the lone front-end speed, which would have improved his chances a whole bunch.

Even without Big Brown, this is shaping up to be a nice field. Duke of Marmalade is coming over. And Casino Drive looked fantastic on Sunday in that allowance race (slow speed figure though). Colonel John is my sleeper pick now, but I don't like his lack of a race since the Travers. I wish Zenyatta would go in the Classic! She could whoop 'em.

Here's Curlin on the track Friday (along with some other Santa Anita horses): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIIHnI6VPCw. And another: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeV1zvmjRuo. Looks pretty smooth to me. Then there's Colonel John: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epWzNTgQUsY. Can ya tell I love watching workouts? Maybe I'll be a clocker in my next life.

[two gun sid]

4. Zenyatta! That would liven things up in the Classic...

and I wouldn't have to watch my girl, Ginger Punch, get beat again by that monster.

You should be a clocker. Think of the material you could gather for a book hanging out at the track. Or writing for DRF.

[aaronbees]

5. Maybe for retirement ....

be a part-time clocker at Santa Anita.

I doubt Zenyatta goes for the Classic. All indications are she'll point for the Distaff. Lots of race fans daydreaming about it though.

Here's Curlin's work from today: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pu-9Fw5FDd8. He looks happy and shiny.

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Nice lean

It would be absurd to pull out solely due to Big Brown's absence. That would make the sport look great.

The race is so much less compelling now I don't know where to start. With Big Brown going to the front, apparently without much company as aaaronbees said, it would have been fascinating to see what tactics Curlin chose, how much he respected Big Brown's ability to stay. Now I have no idea who enters and who inherits the lead. Casino Drive generally rates off the pace. At this point I'll be rooting for him, although it would be amazing to win the Classic with his resume.

[two gun sid]

3. Well Armed inherits the front...

he's got good early speed and has won on all kinds of Cali artificial surfaces. He's consistent and always close. Finished 3rd to Curlin on the dirt in Dubai. Can he get 1 1/4? I don't know. Mott's horse reeled his ass in in the stretch in the Pacific Classic and Well Armed was clear heading for home.

Jackson has to go in the Classic. I agree that it would make the sport look silly if he doesn't. Curlin worked pretty well today under race conditions and I think he has a real shot at winning. Casino Drive is lacking the resume, but that pedigree makes him dangerous. I just haven't seen enough of him to say he's got as much talent as his brother and sister.

I'm with aaronbees. Enter Zenyatta in the Classic. She has the ability to kick the boys asses. Curlin's got to be a little bit tired after this years campaign. Give it a shot. She could be horse of the year and become a very, very valuable broodmare.

OT: Awsi, I hope everything is well with your family back in FL.

[Awsi Dooger]

7. Sid, thanks for the thoughts about my family

My mom is still hospitalized but the last week or so has been encouraging. They put her on ultrafiltration and dialysis after she had gained 65 pounds in water weight, primarily due to kidney complications from MRSA, the hospital disease. She has lost more than 45 pounds due to those procedures and tomorrow her external fixator is scheduled to be removed from her ankle after 3 months. :)

I hope everything is well with yourself and your family.

Yes, Zenyatta would be fascinating in the Classic. That would be the opposite of the Big Brown/Curlin dynamic, with Curlin needing to worry about a charging challenger from behind.

And thanks for laying out the pace of the race with Well Armed.

[aaronbees]

6. I like Casino Drive

Did you see his Sunday allowance win? I was impressed how readily and easily he ran, though he wasn't beating much. Given Better Than Honour's record as a broodmare, I don't think he can be easily dismissed. Looks like a smart, relaxed horse too.

Edited to add: Saw your posts at that forum. Good stuff, LOL. I used to post there as Johnhenryshammer - but got tired of the childish snark there. Still fun to read and there are some insightful racing fans there. A lot gets lost in the muck though.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Yes, I saw his allowance race

I forgot about it until Sunday night but as soon as I remembered I knew partymanners would have it on YouTube. I have no idea how that guy has so much time and dedication to post all the races, current and old. The only concession he makes on the old and more obscure ones is to merely write "race" in the summary box. :rofl:

I don't have more races to upload to YouTube but pretty soon I should be putting on some old college football clips and maybe some Olympic stuff. I know I have plenty of stuff that isn't on YouTube, primarily from the '80s.

I thought Casino Drive looked good on Sunday. He was wide throughout and never really encouraged until the final yards, to hold off the late charger. He looks relaxed and easy to place and had no trouble running in company. I'm not sure if Big Brown's absence helps him or hurts him. BTW, I thought Big Brown was going to run big in the Classic. I was almost looking forward to it, to shut up some of those jerks at that forum.

You should resume posting on thoroughbredchampions. Many of the topics are obvious for childish behavior but others are fun. I liked the recent threads about best and worst horse names.

And I agree with sid, our small group here is as good or better than there for race analysis, particularly breaking down what happened during the race. They get too preoccupied with Beyers and many of the main contributors have built-in biases they never threaten to shake or conceal.

[Venceremos]

9. I look for

Two Step Salsa to set the pace with Well Armed pressing. Two Step almost always takes the lead early and posts solid, but not blistering, fractions. His record is 4 - 2 - 0 in 7 starts, all his wins are on synthetics. He wired the field in the Affirmed Handicap and the Laz Barrera. He set the pace in the Swaps, came in second behind Tres Borrachos and beat Colonel John by a head.

[two gun sid]

10. Do you think Two Step out runs Well Armed...

or do you think Well Armed tries to lay just off the pace as a strategy? Both are proven on the Poly. I guess a lot will depend on the PP draw.