Soyuz rocket flaw found? (Bad Astronomy)

[LongTomH]

Phil Plait's latest post at the Bad Astronomy blog has some encouraging news on progress finding and fixing the flaw that caused the loss of a Soyuz rocket carrying a Progress capsule destined for the International Space Station:

Various media (like the New York Times) are reporting that the flaw that sent a Soyuz rocket crashing into Siberia last month has been identified. Judging from the telemetry, Russian space agency officials are claiming it was due to a clogged pipe that kept the third-stage motor running. When the pipe stopped feeding kerosene to a turbine, power failed to a fuel pump, and the third stage burn stopped.

NASA has been saying that, unless the flaw can be fixed by November, they might have to bring home the last 3 astronauts aboard the ISS and continue operation in an unmanned mode.

That’s the immediate issue. However, this rocket failure is a bit more problematic. The flaw appears to have happened in the manufacturing process, and that’s the sticky point. If it were something procedural setting up for launch (tanking up the rocket, for example), that’s a relatively easy fix. If it were some malfunction in the machinery used to make the rocket (again, possible to find and fix in general), the flaw would’ve turned up more often. That leaves something that happened by accident, and that’s not terribly reassuring. How do you know when a problem like that is mitigated? What was the exact circumstance that led to the pipe being faulty?

Until the Russians can figure that out, implement a fix, and make sure that problem is eliminated — and that other similar mistakes are prevented — it’s too risky to allow astronauts to fly on board the rocket. And that, currently, is the only way to get humans up to the space station. The only other rocket currently capable of getting up there is the Space X Falcon 9, which has not yet proven its reliability, and in any case has not been cleared by NASA to carry humans (the Space X Dragon capsule could theoretically do that, but needs to pass a set of strict regulations to be (pardon the expression) street legal).

I’ll note the Wall Street Journal is reporting that with the flaw being found, Soyuz flights could resume as early as October. Interestingly, the WSJ article reports that NASA is optimistic, while the NYT article says the Russian commission that investigated the crash is more cautious. The WSJ also says NASA may have a statement out this week, so we’ll see. I don’t see any mention of this on the NASA site (an ISS telecon will be held on Tuesday, September 20), but I’ll keep my eyes open.

Phil is suggesting that his readers keep watching the Universe Today website for updates. I would suggest also keep checking the Space Daily site.