Humble Elias's latest take on the Obamamania and what it implies for Kerry

[Mass]

And once again, Elias is spot on.

http://www.chimesatmidnight.blogspot.com/

Game On...Mah Friends...
The new congress has not even settled on it's collective duff before Barack Obama has danced off to Manchester New Hampshire.
He was received like he was Germanicus returning to Rome with the second lost eagle of Varus.
Well folks this is it, the great game is once again afoot a lot of money and organization is in play to find an alternative to Senator Hillary Clinton, right now the spotlight shineth brightly on the Junior Senator from Illinois.
If we were to dissect the game play here there is much to suggest his candidacy. He is a Midwesterner, he is a back bencher in the senate but that also means he has no lengthy record to fuel attack adverts. He is also charismatic, telegenic and reasonably energetic.
The question is, can he carry the ball into the goal zone in a general election?
Well that is a question we can ask of all the candidates quite frankly. Humble Elias suspects a lot of powerlibs on and off long might gamble on an African American being no less odious to the electorate than a woman with as long an alleged rapsheet as Senator Clinton.
The conventional wisdom suggests that Obama is poison to any hopes Senator Kerry has of running again in 2008. Well yeah...Senator Obama has formidable talents...but then I can recall with the simplest nostalgia when the Smart Aleck Legion once assured us that Wesley Clark was the end of John Kerry's White House Dreams.

Game on...game on indeed

(With no disrepect to General Clark, a man I respect and hope will run in 08 if he decides to, but who was disserviced by his late entry in the race).

[whometense]

1. This gave me a huge smile this morning.

The big thing I took away (once again) from yesterday's festivities was the intense loyalty Kerry people feel towards him.

Politicos come and go, as sdo lobbyists, operatives, etc. But once you "get" Kerry, you have a strong tendency to stay squarely in his camp forever.

Walter Shapiro has another glowing Obama as Second Coming article. Can you say overexposure???

My favorite comment so far on Obama came from Charlie Pierce: http://www.boston.com/news/local/connecticut/articles/2006/12/10/independence_day/

http://toughenough.org/2006/12/pierced.html

[MH1]

2. Charlie Pierce is great (as usual)

Thanks for posting that, I needed a smile after reading the Rick Klein garbage.

[sandnsea]

3. I like Obama

I like him a damn site better than Hillary - or Biden, Bayh, Richardson or even Edwards. So far he's just a charismatic speaker - but I think we'd be foolish to alienate him or the people who like him. He's not going to want to get in Hillary's corner, and if he decides it's too early to run, he might just decide to go with the guy who is closest to him ideologically. That would be a good thing.

[karynnj]

4. I agree - at this point Obama needs to define himself

All anyone knows is that he gave a great speech at the convention and has given a few other very good speeches. But speeches alone are not enough. He also was always against the war. While it's true that all Kerry's coments, if he were not a Senator, would have defined him this way as well, this is one of Obama's advantages.

His disadvantages are that - unlike Kerry, he has NOT been a leader in resolving the war and has none of Kerry's foreign policy expertise. Nor does he have a health plan, environmental plan etc though clearly if he runs he will get one - but these will likely not be things he's worked on for years - though he may have some experience here from Chicago.

He also has not even experienced a real state-wide election. In 2004, he was not a sure thing in the primaries. Shortly after he won the primary, his Reublican opponent imploded and they had NO candidate. Running against Keyes was almost like running unopposed. The question may come down to whether he wants the gruel of a campaign now - when his youngest (of 2) kids is 6 years old. Also, how will he respond to the knives a certain candidate seems prone to using to stab her opponents in the back. (He didn't fight beack all that well against McCain)

I see no real to knock Obama - in addition to your reasons - imagine if Gore doesn't run and Kerry is knocked out - in a choice of Obama, Hillary or Edwards - he may be our choice.