Kerry and Democrats

[liberalpragmatist]

I find it pretty unfortunate that Kerry's approval ratings among Democrats have fallen so low.

I want to put forward a slightly different explanation for this than the one most people have been relying on.

To a lot in the media, and many people both within the Democratic Party and without, Kerry's low standing is evidence that Democrats never liked him.

I'm not actually sure that's true. According to the same national thermometers being cited, Kerry's approval rating at the time of the election was 52.

That was actually the lowest of any Democratic candidate for President since 1972. That doesn't tell the whole story, however. Among DEMOCRATS and Democrat-leaners, Kerry actually scored 70% - matching Bill Clinton's performance in 1992 and completely in line with the Democratic average since 1950. Among Republicans, however, Kerry scored very low, which brought his overall average down.

See: http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/archives/001044.php

I think the biggest problem Kerry faces right now is simply skepticism over the fact that he lost; American politics isn't kind to "losers" and that instantly knocked out a lot of his popularity. Coming on top of the manufactured outrage over his botched joke, it has kept Kerry's approval ratings very low.

All of which is very unfair to Kerry.

I'm curious what you're experiences are with other Democrats are regarding Kerry? I know plenty of people who thought he was fine during 2004 - even if they weren't worshipping him like the Bush cultists were - but who are now very skeptical and dismissive towards him.

[karynnj]

1. Interesting comments

Kerry's 70 % score among Democrats in 2004 is actually amazing. From 1996 onward, there was a gradual but persistant shift to right in the TV and radio media. Kerry's positives had to come from:

- the convention - that was lauded while it was ongoing - than criticized after the Republican hate fest.

- the debates

- the coverage of the primary wins

- the coverage of the Rassmann reunion

because other than this the positive coverage given Kerry was very miserly and a huge amount of negative coverage was put up.

[wisteria]

2. Washington 'insiders" never liked Senator Kerry very much. He is his own man.

My statement can be backed up with the lack luster support they provided him in 2004. The Senator has always been on the outside looking in so to speak with the DLC wing. He was a member,but not popular enough with this group to push forward. Now mind you, this is the group that still thinks it is all about domestic issues and the economy. The Iraq war is something they run from. They didn't want to make it an issue in the past elections and were very angry at kerry for pushing this issue hard this election.
Kerry, gained the support of the people in 04 by going around the country and connecting with them. He was making progress again connecting to the people before the flubbed joke made the rounds too.And, he will be able to do it again because once you actually see the man and you hear what he has to say, you forget about the media lies.

Democrats do not like to run candidates more than once for high office. This policy could actually work against us if you consider the people elect more Republican Presidents than Democratic ones and many of the Republican Presidents have run for the higher office more than once.

Democrats who lose are treated badly by our party and encouraged not to try again through derogatory comments and smears. Kerry has so far resisted the push and now they are trying to shove him out. People who are cool to Kerry now are experiencing the cold feet of risking having him run again. They are doing what the party insiders hoped they would, not see him as a winnable candidate.

You are correct, that Kerry's biggest hurdle is to convince people that he can win this time. His campaign did accomplish a lot. There were many positive result of his last run. Combine them with the mood of the country now, and I think he has a shot. I really believe he could accomplish a win if given another chance, however, there are those in the party not willing to do that. They are behind some of the nastiness going on.

It is a shame they are blind sighted and narrow minded, because I know of no one who would make a finer President that Senator kerry.
He still has all of my support.

[demdiva]

4. I agree with this

A lot of the "insiders" I know (I live in DC so they are everywhere) are against him simply because he lost in 2004 or because they were always aligned with another candidate anyway. They voted for him, but there's always the "If my candidate (Dean or Clark esp)had one the primaries this would have turned out better" (bull) But, ironically, most of the skeptics I know have also turned around on Gore (post An Inconvenient Truth). So I think that anything is still possible with this crowd. More importantly, I think the Washington media always likes a good comeback story, so if Kerry starts to show signs of being a formidable candidate again (and I believe he will) then that will make it's way to the media. I also think the Democratic Party is SO STUPID to throw away their good candidates after one run. The Republican Party has been successful frequently in the past because they are historically more disciplined and they are aligned behind their candidates in the end. You don't hear Republicans out there saying John McCain can never win, for example. Even though he didn't even get the nomination before.

[ProSense]

3. Kerry's numbers are always dragged down by Repubs, but they were even higher

among Democratic leaners in 2004, as high as 85% in early 2004.

[Mass]

5. The fact that Democrats are so dismissive, but that the media

continues to write stories is the best proof that people think that Kerry matters.

While I think some candidates are ignored at the media's own risks and that this is not fair either, the fact that the media continue their gossip and dismissal of Kerry articles after articles shows that he is a factor in the 08 race (as is Gore if he runs or Edwards if he runs).

[whometense]

8. And that it is almost an exact replay

of 2003.

Every day I read something, or see some pundit make a comment on tv that makes me flash back to the second half of 2003.

Back then you couldn't turn around without hearing someone dismiss Kerry as "dead" or "on life support" - so offensive. They dismissed him then, and they dismiss him today. But I want to share a comment I read over at Steve Gilliard's blog tonight. The post is wonderful: http://stevegilliard.blogspot.com/2006/12/silly-season.html

The Silly Season

I have news for you, despite the popularity polls, there isn't a chance in hell Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama wins a primary, forget being president.

Harold Ford ran as tight a race as possible and still lost.

And people liked him.

Now, they like Obama, but he should heed the counsel of Colin Powell. He was vastly more popular than Obama, across racial lines, had a real record to run on, and the minute people started seriously talking about him running for office, they were planning to dig dirt up on him and his wife.

Powell realized that he wasn't going to be president very quickly.

Hillary Clinton is hated by more people than liked. Someone said that she's got the black vote locked up, and I just laughed. What has Hillary Clinton done for black people? They may like her, but she's not exactly Bobby Kennedy. She has been mute on the Bell killing...

The comment: http://rateyourmusic.com/yaccs/p/commentsn/blog_id=90000045368_and_blog_entry_id=116593873544014060#8776553

Last night the daughter asked me if I thought Obama would be a good president.

I thought about it for a second, and said that, while I have nothing against him personally, I think the next president is going to have to be the most qualified, most serious, most committed person on the planet, because the problems we face now are only going to be worse in two years.

I thought Obama didn't have the requisite experience.

"What about vice-president?" she asked.

"Well, that would be ok, I suppose," said I.

What I didn't say? Hillary...nonononononononononono...

-- merciless

Who does that sound like to you? Yeah, to me too.

[MH1]

6. Just chatted with a cab driver who LOVES Kerry.

Fellow from Haiti who got all excited when I said I was just coming home from Boston after being at a birthday party for Senator Kerry. Actually he lit up and said "John Kerry?! That's my BRO!" and reached back to shake my hand. He expressed hope that Kerry would run again, and how much he liked him and was so sorry he didn't win in 2004.

Oh, and he detests Hillary for the way she handled the attack on Kerry about the joke. Said it showed she was just out for her own ambitions, she should have kept her mouth shut or supported Kerry against the right wing smear job. He volunteered that too - after he asked me what I thought of Hillary and I said, "she's better than any republican but she's the Democrat I like least of the 2008 candidates." I didn't say ANYTHING about her shitty treatment of Kerry - he brought it up on his own.

Maybe the guy is atypical. I just know he's a random cabdriver that I drew out of the line tonight. Talking with him made my night though. And not just because he's a Kerry fan - it was nice to get a native's take on the deal with Aristide. It's cool as hell to talk to educated people from other countries!

[ProSense]

7. That's so cool!

The cab driver who took me from the airport when I arrived in Boston provided some great insight on the Big Dig.

[whometense]

9. I'd say he was very typical.

Tay and I have said it before, but one of the reasons Kerry runs so deep under the radar is that the people he appeals to the most are not pundits or big shots or DC insiders - he's won every election by going out and meeting real people, listening to them, and talking with them. It's the working people who love him because they can see for themselves how real he is, how genuine and how caring. The people the pundits, if they acknowledge their existence, think of as too stupid to figure out who they want to vote for for themselves.

It floors me still that they get away with it. If you look at Kerry's daughters - what lovely young women they are, and how much they love their father. If you look at the relationships he's had and kept for his entire adult life - you know that he's someone who does not believe in throwing people away.

Ok :blush: off my soapbox - I'm really happy you met that cab driver - he is more typical than not. During the 2004 campaign I was on a viz in South Boston, standing in the freezing cold for hours holding up a sign. The most people who honked and waved and gave us the thumbs up? Cab drivers and truckers. Not the drivers of giant SUV's.

[wisteria]

10. Great unsolicited comments. I love getting hearing things like this. n/y

[JI7]

11. it's different when people actually see Kerry for themselves

most of what you describe is a result of what people hear from the media . but i always find that when people actually get to see Kerry for themselves he gets a positive response.

the same criticism along with whining Dems was going on during the 2004 elections. but it was seeing Kerry in the debates and at the convention for themselves that turned people over to him.