Improvement with the veterans vote. Kerry lost 57 - 41. Obama only lost by 10.

[beachmom]

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/13/1672069.aspx

VETERANS DAY: John Kerry, a Vietnam vet who became an outspoken critic of the war, lost the veterans vote by a margin of 57%-41%. Obama, who never served, closed that margin against former POW John McCain, only losing by 10 points among vets.

This is really good news for Democrats. Remember the trend for Democrats getting more of the vets' votes started with Kerry. If Obama does a good job as CiC, then this trend will continue, which will be disasterous for the Republicans' supposed "national security" advantage.

[MonteLukast]

1. A lot of vets in 2004...

... never forgave Kerry for speaking out against Vietnam. You would think that it would've been obvious by war's end how much of a mistake it was, but still, so many soldiers clung to a "stay the course" mentality, just like the Bushies.

Probably all in an effort to confidently call themselves resolute people who never give up. Admitting futility and quitting a losing enterprise can be one of the hardest things a person can do, because it makes you ask yourself, "What the hell have I been doing with my life?"
Kerry's candidacy was, to too many Vietnam vets, a statement that they were wrong to keep fighting, even that their lives were misspent. Who wouldn't hate somebody who makes you feel like that? I'd wager that some even felt taunted by Kerry and his candidacy.

Too bad they never turned their heads around and looked in a different direction. Because JK has had this nasty habit of being right.

[beachmom]

2. No, that is the older vets who I am sure are still quite Republican

They hail from the culture war generation; the vets pissed off at the Dirty F***ing Hippies for ending the Vietnam War and calling them baby killers (plus spitting myths which never happened), etc. But to me the shift is no doubt amongst the younger generations of vets. A lot of them did not care for Clinton and initially voted for Bush; but Bush has really turned them off due to the botching of the Iraq War. They started shifting to Kerry in '04, and then even moreso to Obama. IF Obama does a good job handling foreign policy and war, they will stay Democratic.

[MBS]

3. Yes , much of his opposition came from that quarter.

. . and certainly fueled the lies (and the coffers) of the SBVT . But it's good to remember that his strongest support LAO came from those many Vietnam vets who, like Kerry, also turned against the war, and/or those vets who could at least appreciate the honor of his service as well as how much JK has done for vets his entire career. I was in the Veterans caucus, surrounded by vets of all ages and all services, at the 2004 Dem Nat Convention, and will never in my life forget the intensity of emotion in that room. This was no ABB crowd; these were folks who really got who Kerry was and is.
I felt at the time that Kerry represented for them a kind of lifeline, a route to getting official thanks and redemption for their service.

In 2004, an oped in the Boston Globe (I think it was their official editorial endorsement of JK's candidacy, but am not 100% sure) noted that Kerry showed courage in volunteering for the Vietnam war, and courage again in working to end that war. Which he did, on both counts. As all the smart guys (everyone on this forum! but also others!)know.

[YvonneCa]

4. Veterans are a subset of the country...

...a country that was very divided about VietNam and Kerry's role in it. The group supporting Kerry in 2004 DID understand and believe in what he did. The other 'side' saw a loss because of insufficient use of war power...hampered by protesters and a disillusioned American public. They NEVER want to fail again (Iraq) and they belittle the role of dissent as keeping victory from their grasp. McCain represents this side. The Kerry haters come from this group.

As JK has said, the "fissures of VietNam are stubbornly resistent to closure." I think Iraq enhanced that division between veterans. I also think that ...had JK run again and had McCain as an opponent...while it might have proven interesting, it probably would have divided us even more. Obama, as a candidate, didn't attract the haters.

As to trends, I think it's too soon to tell.

[beachmom]

5. Well, the trend has lasted 3 election cycles: 2004, 2006, and 2008.

So I do think that it is a trend (to be clear Gore lost the military vote around 70/30). And if Obama does a good job, then I think it will be something more permanent. Remember that McCain won the age group 29 - 40 (that's my generation). That is the generation who grew up under Reagan, who was popular. Once those opinions are formed, they tend to continue for a lifetime (with the caveat that there are always swing voters).