5/22 deadline in Iraq looming; Maliki now anticipates deadlock

[beachmom]

I don't know about any of you, but I am anxiously watching the calender to see if elected Iraqi officials can form a unity government. A couple of days ago, I sensed optimism both from Baghdad and Washington that this would happen, even by this weekend. However, they have run into a snag. Iraq the Model reports:

Friday, May 12, 2006

Mutlaq and Fadheela walk out, Maliki anticipates a deadlock.

Politicians here were saying last week that a government would emerge within no more than a few days and I was hoping they were right this time but obviously they are going to request some more time…as usual.

A few issues are complicating the talks; Fadheela Party announced their boycott to the negotiations of allocating cabinet posts; meanwhile Salih al-Mutlaq's Dialogue Front is most likely to stay out of the formation as well. Of course this is in addition to the already existing points of difference regarding some major posts.

snip

In reaction to these obstacles, Nouri al-Maliki is apparently preparing himself for the worst and is already making a plan to override a possible deadlock; al-Sharq al-Awsat reports that sources close to Maliki said that if no deal is reached he will consider announcing his cabinet in the middle of next week and may appoint himself as acting minister of defense and interior until the concerned blocs reach an agreement on the candidates for these two ministries.

Anyway, there are 10 days left before the constitutional deadline expires on May 22nd so it's still early to worry about a constitutional breach or a new deadlock.

http://iraqthemodel.blogspot.com/2006/05/mutlaq-and-fadheela-walk-out-maliki.html

The dispute is largely due to fighting over, surprise, surprise, the oil ministry as well as the interior ministry (from which death squads were ordered to terrorize, torture, and kill the Sunni population). That would be interesting if Maliki gave himself the two posts (well, from above it says Defense and Interior) -- is that constitutional? But at this point, what's most important is getting a unity government by the deadline. If they miss the deadline, what will OUR government do and what will Sen. Kerry say?

10 days to go.

[ProSense]

1. Bush will not do anything!

Notice that after Kerry made his proposal, Bush, Rice, Rumsfeld and the MSM reports started to point to progress in Iraq forming a government. It was BS of course. There was no ultimatum from the Bush admin and the deadlock has been ongoing.

If Bush acted on Kerry's plan, issued an ultimatum, then withdrawal process could kick in by the deadline. The main thing is Kerry's proposed troop withdrawal by the end of the year. If the Democrats take back Congress in November, that can still happen.

IMO, pressure is mounting as Kerry's proposal gains support, calls increase for Rumsfeld to resign and casualties mount. Also, given the recent news, the Bush admin is in deep poop and the Republicans challenged to answer for Bush's failed policies. I wouldn't be surprised if things move rapidly toward a withdrawal policy before November.