Better check if that umbrella still works...(Hurricane Center Update)

[brooklynite]

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 231519
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 23 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON SATURDAY...IF NECESSARY.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/231519.shtml

[Virginia Dare]

1. What are the models saying?...n/t

[SoCalDem]

2. It looks pretty close to the coast..not much time to "grow"

By the time it "organizes" it should be on or near land.. That's a good thing :)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/images/images.html

[Mojorabbit]

3. some models

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=91

[Virginia Dare]

7. Well gol damn...

one of those models goes right over my house.

[woodsprite]

4. Hope it doesn't putz around too much out there in the ocean

but comes on land and peters out. Our whole extended family is meeting on the Outer Banks next weekend. :(

[alfredo]

5. I am getting some black horizontal lines from

the GOES satellite. I hope it is temporary. If it goes out, bush may not allow a replacement. You know how he is for faith based knowledge.

[Warpy]

6. The Atlantic hasn't had a chance to warm up

sufficiently to form a powerhouse storm and weather patterns over Africa are just now starting to shift northward. The really bad east coast hurricanes generally form near the Azores and drift westward.

However, if something forms in the Gulf of Mexico, watch out. The Gulf is red hot for this time of year.

[Virginia Dare]

8. One of the most damaging storms in East Coast history...

and especially here in the Washington DC area, was Agnes in late June 1972...so you never know. One of the tracks on the model looks like it pretty much takes a similar track that Agnes did.
:(

[Warpy]

9. Agnes wasn't an intense storm, though

just a wet Willie. I know, I was in DC for that one, wore plastic sandals to work that day because I was wading through ankle deep water to get to the bus stop.

I'm talking about intense storms with large storm surges and high winds capable of wiping out coastal communities. Aganes wasn't it.

[gkhouston]

10. the Wet Willies can be troublemakers, too, though.

as Houston well knows. :-(

[Warpy]

11. So does Alamogordo

It was just a big thunderstorm, but it downed power lines, ruptured a couple of gas mains, and flooded part of town.

It's a real mess there.

[Swamp Rat]

13. Was this today?

I have family in Alamogordo.

[Warpy]

14. Thursday night

A small part of town looked like New Orleans. It was awful, a flash flood that happened and was over within a couple of hours, leaving wrecked houses and cars and mud everywhere.

[Virginia Dare]

12. Yep, but a very costly wet willy, $$$ wise....n/t