Military DUers; Is the Green Zone about to become another Dien Bien Phu?

[benburch]

I have been considering the differences and similarities in the two situations, and I wonder if the Green Zone is about to be cut off such that it can only be re-supplied from the air, and what that would mean from a strategic point of view. Comments please?

[manic expression]

1. More like another Carrhae or Cannae n/t

[CoffeeCat]

2. I'm shocked that the Green Zone is...

...still standing.

Frankly, I don't understand why it hasn't been decimated. It's definitely a coveted target.

If I was in the Green Zone, I wouldn't feel safe. It's only a matter of time before something tragic happens.

With the chaos and civil war spreading like wildfire---the Green Zone has to be more vulnerable. That thing must be fortified like nobody's business.

[benburch]

3. It stands because by attacking elsewhere they gained strength.

Every time the insurgency succeeds, they aid their recruitment. They now have the strength to cut off the green zone, but I think they are smart enough to know that the US Military will react like a cornered animal. So I expect that further attacks will occur to draw the strength out of the Green Zone before it is actually cut off.

[TomInTib]

4. A hard rain is gonna fall...

I say it is going down within the next 8 weeks.

[benburch]

36. I hope you are wrong.

But I fear you are right.

[Kagemusha]

5. It's not anywhere near as bad as it could be yet.

The Shiites have still not turned on the US in true force.

Yet.

[eridani]

25. Now that we are rubberstamping the mass murder of Shi'ites in Lebanon

--that could change quickly.

[lonestarnot]

6. It has been for months!

[Breeze54]

7. Yes benburch. I'm in Iraq as are

all du-ers!! :sarcasm: We ALL have "the skinny'!

I seriously DOUBT that is happening.
Why? Because the US military has more fire power.

Next!

Hey Ben? What's happening in Somalia?? :shrug:

[benburch]

10. Many of us have been students of the military for years.

And many have been officers and enlisted men.

So, you can drop the sarcasm tag.

I am asking a legitimate military question of people who have actual military knowledge. You don't need to be there to look at a map and see the situation.

[Breeze54]

12. Really?

So just because you were in the military, at one time, then you are all knowing?

Who'd have thunk? :sarcasm:

[benburch]

15. No, but we can ask questions about a tactical situation.

What are YOUR qualification, chum?

[Joe Fields]

37. Why heap scorn and ridicule on someone who is just offering

their opinion of a crumbling situation? It isn't hard to make a justification for Ben's take on a possible scenario. I happen to be thinking along those same lines.

[TomInTib]

11. "more firepower"? You must be kidding.

Do you mean like our superior firepower in Vietnam?

I was there.

39 months.

We lost.

The Green Zone will be paralyzed.

Actually, it already is.

[Breeze54]

14. There's a difference

between paralized and contained.

They aren't 'cornered' by any means, imho.

The USA has a lot more "bullets", and as former military, you all should know that!

[benburch]

17. We had a lot more bullets in Vietnam too.

And we used them! Massive B-52 raids. Napalm. Agent Orange. Helicopter cavalry. Armor. Heavy guns. And we got our asses handed to us.

[Breeze54]

20. Really?

Gheesh! I must have been sleeping all those years during the Vietnam police action.

Iraq isn't Vietnam. I would more liken it to Beirut. Urban Warfare!

Iraq isn't like Vietnam, terrain wise. It is urban warfare though, imho.

[TomInTib]

21. We are contained within the GZ.

It is all over except for the crying.

The excess of 'bullets' matters not.

They want it more than we do.

And that is what counts.

Macnamara asked Vo Nguyen Giap how did the Vietnamese hold forth in the face of the terrible attrition rate and Giap replied, "It was our Country".

And that is it.

[jwirr]

19. Yes, my nephew has been there for months and has not left the

green zone once because it is too unsafe.

[Breeze54]

24. My son just got back in

April and he did leave the Green Zone....although he wasn't required to do that.
He had toys and clothes and food to distribute, sans "the family and friends".

It IS dangerous on "The Irish Highway" - aka - "The Emerald Highway" but it has gotten better.

I do not believe, for one second, that the USA would be cornered there!
Just to much fucking fire-power at their disposal!

I doubt that would EVER happen there!

Seriously...

[benburch]

28. Ah. Now I understand why you cannot allow yourself to consider this.

I'm not sure if I could be objective in your shoes, either.

[Breeze54]

31. You understand nothing but assume a lot!

You seem to assume, that my son being stop-lossed, is my advocating the war.
That is where you, benburch, make great leaps and bounds in your assumptions.
You couldn't be farther from the truth.

Never assume, benburch! It only makes an ass of you!

[benburch]

32. Now it is you assuming.

I assume that you cannot consider that your son could get trapped in a situation that is un-winnable by a foe who will not take prisoners. That is what I assume.

[Breeze54]

34. My son is at HedgPeth Fest this coming weekend, the 28th; in Wisconsin!

Not in Iraq! lmao! He's done and out and gone!
Told me that the USA can go fuck themselves!
Got flood?? Tough shit!!

He volunteered for the National Guard in 1999,
to help people in floods and shit like that!

Never thought he'd be forced into a war zone!! Naive'? Maybe!
He was afraid to tell me he signed up!

But despite all you fuckers that dismiss the kind of heart,
he continued to write his music, in a war zone,
and is now going to play it for the world!!!

In spite of you!

At HedgePeth Fest with Primus and The Flaming Lips!
His band is 'The Doomsday Social'


http://www.hedgpethfest.com/

Have a self-righteous night! :toast:

[Joe Fields]

39. I'm glad for you and your family that your son made it back alive.

But I have to ask, what is your problem?

[Breeze54]

46. People who ask open ended, accusatory questions.

People who pre-label people and prejudge others.

People who haven't a clue but still spout BullShit!

People who condemn all for the crap of a few.

Need I go on? :shrug: :grr:

[TomInTib]

29. Firepower alone doesn't get it done

Applied Force gets it done.

I am just wondering.... ( and no offense)...

Just want to know...

Did they go out on those humanitarian actions without guards?

[Breeze54]

35. My son was a computer operator/signal tech

but he was trained on a 50 calibur machine gun...just in case. YIKES!!!!
They train a lot of people on this and that, as 'back up'.
They went out to fix/test signal wires? and he was not allowed to go out normally
because they didn't have armored vehicles and they couldn't afford to 'lose' him!
But he did manage to go out on a few occasions. He didn't want to tell me that.
He knew I would freak out! He knows me well! ;)

He didn't go out on a 'humanitarian action'...he just went and decided to bring
all the shit our family had sent to him!
He gave away his Christmas and other gifts to the kids there.
He made a point of bringing the extra food with him, when he got the chance to go.
That's all.

He did what he could while he was there and he got the fuck out of there
when they told him it was time to go!
That's all.

[Bucky]

30. Well of course we have more fire power. That's why they target civilians.

I'm glad your son came home safe. I worry about all the millions for whom home is Iraq and will not be safe for a long long time.

[Breeze54]

33. I am concerned as well.

But a lot of people, like benburch, assume that all the US military in Iraq,
are out driving around on trucks, shooting people.
That isn't the case and he is apparently, by his own admission, stuck on Vietnam.

Iraq isn't Vietnam. More like Beruit. But that's just my opinion.

I'm not a war student, just an anti-war protestor.

I just happen to disagree with benburch.

[Joe Fields]

38. I do not share your optomism. What I see now is an area of Baghdad

(the Green Zone) that is under siege.

[donsu]

43. there is more then one way to bring down a castle (green zone)

don't boast too loudly

[Strelnikov_]

8. So When Does Reich Marshall Goering . .err . . Rumsfeld Declare

"Mein Fuehrer, the Luftwaffe can resupply the Green Zone from the air"

[POAS]

9. They need to get the

adversary to spread his resources as thinly as possible. Only then will they strike and then meld back into the background to start the process anew.

[uppityperson]

13. replying so I can check answers later, been wondering this also

helicopters. Hope they have enough helicopters. But then I am cynical and uppity. Thanks benburch.

[benburch]

18. I hope so too.

We may see the Osprey's baptism by fire.

[alcibiades_mystery]

16. Go read Bernard Fall's "Hell in a Very Small Place"

and you will see how ridiculous your question is.

That is all.

[Strelnikov_]

22. So, Could You Explain Why The OP's Question Was Ridiculous

http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0306802317/002-0291074-3815271?v=glance&n=283155

Book Description

"The definitive account" (Saturday Review) of the battle that paved the way for American involvement in Vietnam.

The 1954 battle of Dien Bien Phu ranks with Stalingrad and Tet for what it ended (imperial ambitions), what it foretold (American involvement), and what it symbolized: A guerrilla force of Viet Minh destroyed a technologically superior French army, convincing the Viet Minh that similar tactics might prevail in battle with the U.S.

[eridani]

26. Actually, it was the political war they won over the US--

--not any particular military battle.

[benburch]

27. Dien Bien Phu pre-dates US involvement.

It was a different war entirely, and ended with the Geneva accords of 1954.

It was the French who lost at Dien Bien Phu/

[benburch]

23. Can you summarize as I am trying to understand the situation by analogy.

I see the following similarities; It is bad tactical ground surrounded by easily held terrain that if held prevents resupply except by air in a country where the majority of the populace wants us defeated.

I see this as a Dien Bien Phu because of the supply lines, and the lack of evacuation routes to use in a retreat. The Green Zone is a parcel of land bordered by the river on two sides and by urban baghdad on the other two. The river is not fordable at that spot, and there is not sufficient riverine transport to evacuate across it. There is one main road out. If cut off at the choke point, only destroying the enemy or the use of vertical resupply and evacuation is possible, but the enemy already knows how to take out helicopters. The main airport is fairly distant, and is itself vulnerable.

I'm looking for the closest modern analogy to the present situation.

The differences I see are that there are not peaks from which accurate fire can be directed at the green zone, though the urban sprawl in its vicinity does provide great cover for shoot-and-scoot indirect fire weapons. At Dien Bien Phu there was not the additional complication of civilian diplomatic staff to feed, protect, or evacuate. At Dien Bien Phu there were not nearby air-bases from which to stage close air support missions as there are here, but there also were not the complications of a civilian population that would become collateral damage in counter-strikes.

[Johnyawl]

44. The big difference between Dien Bien Phu 1953 and Baghdad 2006

Is artillery.

The Vietnamese had a massive amount of artillery surrounding the French, and it was carefully dug into the hills, and hidden by the jungle. Their artillery was so well dug in, that the French artillery and air support could not effectively get at it. The French artillery commander, once he realized how outmaneuvered he'd been, and how ineffective his counter fire was, committed suicide. The French did not have the numerical superiority to launch infantry attacks to dislodge the Vietnamese, though god knows they sacrificed alot of men trying.

The insurgents DON'T have artillery, or rockets, in the numbers to match that, nor do they have any where in the vicinity to dig them in where they couldn't be gotten to by american air power. And the insurgents have proved powerless to stop US ground attacks. They can make us bleed, but they can't stop us.

If it comes to that, our infantry/armored units, with massive air support, will hold the road open, and evacuate the bulk of our military. Collateral damage be damned. Your average American (including this one, I got relatives there) isn't gonna give a damn about Iraqi civilians, until our boys are clear. As a nation we'll anguish over flattening Baghdad later.

Once our military has evacuated, the GZ will look like Saigon 1975, as the civilian, diplomats, contractors, and our Iraqi flunkies scramble aboard the helicopters, heading for safety.

[bemildred]

40. I am not ex-military but ...

a.) Patience Grasshopper. There is no hurry. Collapsing the Green Zone will be the final act. The threat is stronger than the move.

b.) We seem to be diverting jet fuel and bombs to Lebanon. One wonders about the bullet situation too, other logistics issues, but I do not know.

c.) CAS is critical, and one has no idea what the situation is there, although one can infer it is not likely good. Without air support the iraqis can drag up the tubes and start to open up. It won't take long at all if that occurs. That would be Dien Bien Phu. All we see now (AFAIK) is hit and run stuff, a few mortar rounds, a few rockets, which suggests that anything more is still dangerous.

d.) The pulling of troops back into Baghdad indicates trouble in controlling the parts of Baghdad that we need to control, that would include the area around the Green Zone and supply routes. This suggests that we might now see a struggle over keeping the Green Zone supplied, a sort of dispersed seige, and that is likely to be much more congenial for the resistance than a direct attack, it plays to their strengths and our weaknesses, and is consistent with what seems to be happening now.

e.) The iraqis may well be distracted by their internal issues, and that could well prolong the situation arbitrarily.

YMMV.

[genie_weenie]

41. No. There is a HUGE difference

Air power.

To go into more detail. In Vietnam, the US had to worry about SA-2 emplacements and effective AAA including actual AAA pieces. At no time will you see the insurgency advance to the stage were they field large battalions of troops or more standard military formations like an Arty BN to encircle the Green Zone as Dien Bien Phu was encircled with mortars and tubes to rain down shells.

With our air power any concentration of troops would immediately be targeted and destroyed.

However, some different wrench were thrown into the equation say, The Mahdi Militia backed by Iranian troops makes a play for Baghdad and an all out war with Iran occurs, The Green Zone would be in trouble.

But, with just the insurgency to deal with the Green Zone will "only" be subject to random mortar attacks and car bombs.

The insurgents merely have to remain in the field.

[GreatCaesarsGhost]

42. when those Heritage Foundation civilians in the green zone

start running to the choppers, that's when we'll know the shit has hit the fan.

[Breeze54]

45. The shit already hit the fan...

when * invaded!