I've earned the right to say, "I told you so". That is my prefix to this post, which explains why the United States is now in an untenable military situation in Iraq and has no option but a strategic withdrawal and a shift to a covert action program targeted at secular Sunni, Shia, and Kurds.
In November of 2005, I was among the first to warn that the Civil War was well underway in Iraq:
The multiple threats we face in Iraq will not be solved by an election. The differences dividing the ethno religious groups in the territory of Iraq cannot be bridged by a group hug or a sit down around a conference table. We have ripped the scab off of an ancient wound and unleashed a beast that cannot be calmed through diplomacy. We do not have the force structure in place in Iraq to contain the burgeoning civil war. Instead, we are becoming pawns that each side of this ethnic quagmire will use to justify their particular agendas. The British learned the hard way in the 1920s. It remains to be seen if we are willing to learn anything from history or just destined to repeat it.
I reiterated the point in December 2005, on the eve of the highly touted "purple finger" election:
With voting already underway in Iraq we should harbor no illusion about the ultimate outcome--the Iraqi shias with the closest ties to Iran will secure the largest share of the votes. George Bush is right about one thing; this vote is likely to remake the face of the Middle East. Unfortunately, his vision that Iraq will become a launching pad for a new era of peace and understanding among the nations in the region is not only farfetched, but ignores what is actually taking place on the ground.
And I announced the civil war in February 2005 while Bush claimed we had turned another corner on the road to democracy. We did not turn a corner, we turned into a blind alley.
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http://www.tpmcafe.com/blog/coffeehouse/2006/oct/10/americas_defeat
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