Juan Cole analyzes the John Hopkins/Lancet study (655,000 Dead in Iraq)

[enough]

http://www.juancole.com/2006/10/655000-dead-in-iraq-since-bush.html

Quite long and detailed. Worth reading especially with all the spin coming out now.

snip>

This study is going to have a hard ride. In part it is because many of us in the information business are not statistically literate enough to judge the sampling techniques. Many will tend to dismiss the findings as implausible without a full appreciation of how low the margin of error is this time. Second, it is a projection, and all projections are subject to possible error, and journalists, being hardnosed people, are wary of them.

The New York Times report has already made a serious error, saying that deaths in the Saddam period were covered up. The families interviewed knew whether their loved ones were disappearing in 2001 and 2002 and had no reason to cover it up if they were. The survey established the baseline with a contemporary questionnaire. It wasn't depending on Iraqi government statistics.

Another reason for the hard ride is that the Republican Party and a significant fraction of the business elite in this country is very invested in the Iraq War, and they will try to discredit the study. Can you imagine the profits being made by the military-industrial complex on all this? Do they really want the US public to know the truth about what the weapons they produce have done to Iraqis? When you see someone waxing cynical about the study, ask yourself: Does this person know what a chi square is? And, who does this person work for, really?

snip>

I follow the violence in Iraq carefully and daily, and I find the results plausible.

First of all, Iraqi Muslims don't believe in embalming or open casket funerals days later. They believe that the body should be buried by sunset the day of death, in a plain wooden box. So there is no reason to expect them to take the body to the morgue. Although there are benefits to registering with the government for a death certificate, there are also disadvantages. Many families who have had someone killed believe that the government or the Americans were involved, and will have wanted to avoid drawing further attention to themselves by filling out state forms and giving their address.

Personally, I believe very large numbers of Iraqi families quietly bury their dead without telling the government of all people anything about it. Another large number of those killed is dumped in the Tigris river by their killers. A fisherman on the Tigris looking for lunch recently caught the corpse of a woman. The only remarkable thing about it is that he let it be known to the newspapers. I'm sure the Tigris fishermen throw back unwanted corpses every day.

snip>


much more

[BootinUp]

1. hundreds per day, every day

raises the level of disgust just that much more. I'm sure this is one of the reasons the US government specifically avoids publically issuing estimates, they know official body count numbers would be way to the low side.

[DoYouEverWonder]

3. That's why they don't let the media show too many pictures

They made that mistake in Vietnam and were careful not to make it again.

BTW: Are you still an OCTer? I haven't seen you in the dungeon in awhile. :hi:

[BootinUp]

5. Hi

Yeah, I haven't changed my views on the 9/11 stuff. Well the dungeon can a little boring, how many there have not made up their minds? It would be more interesting if that number were higher I think.

[leftchick]

2. I like how he deals with cordesman's claim of this study being "political"

<snip>

Then Anthony Cordesmann told AP that the timing and content of the study were political. But is he saying that 18,000 households from all over Iraq conspired to lie to Johns Hopkins University researchers for the purpose of defeating Republicans in US elections this November? Does that make any sense? And, if Cordesmann has evidence that the authors and editor set their timetable for completion and publication according to the US political calendar, he should provide it. If he cannot, he should retract.


I completely agree with Juan and find this study completely plausible. I recall a similar study in the midst of the Vietnam war that was pooh poohed as well. Years later after the war's end that study had actually under estimated the deaths. I predict the same for Iraq. :(

[endarkenment]

4. At what point are our crimes on the level of genocide?

I'm thinking that the blood of 650,000 Iraqis dead, (and how many seriously wounded would that imply?) in a nation of 30,000,000, is reaching the level where we have the sort of ethical choices faced by the people of Germany as their regime started out on its own bloody adventure in world domination.

[maddezmom]

6. kick

:hi: