Webb up 47-44 over Allen in new LA Times Poll

[WI_DEM]

LA Times released poll results from five key races:

VA: 47-44 favoring Webb
NJ: 45-41 favoring Menendez
OH: 47-39 favoring Brown

In MO, Talent holds a 48-45 point lead.
In TN, this poll shows Corker up by five--49-44 over Harold Ford, Jr. Is that racist ad actually having some effect?

http://www.latimes.com/news/politics/la-na-poll25oct25,0,2498438.story?coll=la-home-headlines

[fooj]

1. Hmmm...yesterday the #'s were reversed...

Interesting, yes?

[acmavm]

2. Sheesh, yesterday Macacca Boy was up four points. This just

proves one thing. A poll only says what you want it to say unless they numbers are waaaaayyyyy out of whack, like the exit polling in 2004.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

13. There wasn't a damned thing wrong with exit polling in 2004

The pugs cheated. It was rigged. Period.

The laws of statistics don't lie.

[acmavm]

15. That's exactly what I said. That the numbers can say anything you

want them to say UNLESS they are so skewed (out of whack) in one direction.

[ItsTheMediaStupid]

27. I misunderstood

I thought you were implying that the polls were inaccurate and Bush actually won.

[grizmaster]

3. K & R

[bluestateguy]

4. This is like trying to get frogs into a wheelbarrow

One jumps in, and then one or two jump out.

Webb pulls ahead, and then McCaskill falls behind. Ugh!

[Lasher]

26. Or trying to hold 100 ping pong balls underwater all at once.

And it looks more grim than the LA Times/Bloomberg poll shows, we've lost ground in Senate races. From Real Clear Politics, which averages latest polls from different sources:

Missouri: Talent +1.0%
Montana: Tester +5.3
New Jersey: Menendez +4.8
Tennessee: Corker +2.3
Virginia: Allen +1.3

According to RCP we would pick up only 4 Senate seats if the election were held today and if all their projections are correct. Last week they had us ahead in 6 races, which is the minimum we need to get a majority. If you go to the RCP site you can see that a couple of other polls have come in since the one mentioned in this OP.

[Tiggeroshii]

5. Wow!

I think it's becoming clear that we will win either Tennessee or Virginia in November, bothare very close.

[SheilaT]

6. Difference in poll numbers

are because of exactly when a poll was taken, what method was used to decide who to poll, in short, the whole methodology. And how closely any poll ultimately reflects the actual outcome on election day (assuming no chicanery at the polls) depends on how carefully a given poll tried to get those who really and truly intended to vote to answer the poll, and that's tricky at best.

So, without any evil intent whatsoever, especially in a close race the numbers will shift back and forth.

[UrbScotty]

7. Keep on fighting. (nt)

[gordianot]

8. Talent is in trouble with the Kansas City Star over his ads.

I have always wondered what kind of idiot lets TV ads influence their vote? McCaskill has several really good ads that will come out in the stretch "food for the idiots".

[ochazuke]

20. And they're still on!

It's like they say:

McCaskill is a Horrible liar
--K.C. Star

When they should say:

McCaskill is a Horrible liar
--McCaskill Hater (as reported in the KC Star)

This shows you that negative ads work. They won't pull them even though it has been widely reported how misleading they are and the Star demands they be pulled because of the obvious damage to the Star's reputation. Oh, and the lying.

[nicknameless]

9. Too bad the ballot cuts off Webb's "(D)" after his name.

And the "(R)" after Allen's name.

For people wanting to vote a straight Democratic ticket, this is very unfortunate.

Just coincidentally, rethugs keep trying to conceal their party affiliation these days.

... Yeah. What a coincidence.

[klook]

12. WHAT????

Is this for real? This is the first I've heard of it. That is unbelieveable. Is it legal to publish a ballot without the candidates' party affiliations? And one that doesn't give voters the opportunity to vote a straight ticket??

[nicknameless]

16. Here's the link:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/10/23/AR2006102301178_pf.html

Even if candidates' full names appear, as is the case with Webb's Republican opponent, incumbent Sen. George F. Allen, their party affiliations have been cut off.

If there's a place on the ballot to check for a straight party ticket, that might still work.
But voters who want to actually see the party affiliation of candidates are out of luck with this ballot.

[Justice Is Comin]

17. It's better if you don't vote a straight party ticket on a designated

place to vote all at one time. It's easier to flip the whole ballot.

I wrote in two write-ins as John Diebold.

[nicknameless]

18. That makes sense.

If "John Diebold" wins, would Wally O'Dell be sworn in?

[klook]

19. Completely unacceptable!

Thanks for the link. That is beyond ridiculous, that Webb's name is cut off because it's "too long."

U.S. Senate candidate James Webb's last name has been cut off on part of the electronic ballot used by voters in Alexandria, Falls Church and Charlottesville because of a computer glitch that also affects other candidates with long names, city officials said yesterday.

James H. 'Jim' Webb is too long to fit on the electronic ballot???

And according to an article in the Falls Church News-Press, the manufacturer was notified of the glitch (which keeps names of more than a few characters from printing on the summary page because they use a font that's too large) a year ago!!

This is an incredibly simple problem to fix. Who are these idiots (Hart InterCivic) trying to kid?

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

21. It not only cuts off the "D", it cuts off his LAST NAME. Apparently, it shows

up okay in the part where you actually choose the candidate.

Then, on the summary screen at the end where you review your votes before casting, it cuts off "Webb" and it cuts off the "R" after George Allen.

[nicknameless]

22. Webb just shouldn't have such a "long name".

... How effing outrageous.

And we're not supposed to notice that "James H. ‘Jim’ Webb" is one character shorter than "Sen. George F. Allen"?

:mad:

[nicknameless]

10. -- Duplicate --

[in_cog_ni_to]

11. I saw that! woohoo! Did you catch the TN. Ford Corker numbers?

I missed them.:(

[WI_DEM]

14. I'm astounded that Corker is five points up--I hope that will begin

to close again.

[fujiyama]

23. Any real indication on how accurate the LATimes polls are?

I really don't see anything that alarming. Different polls are showing different results re. VA, MO, and TN...

Basically these are all within the margin of error.

[mvd]

25. Probably average reliability

I already saw a more recent SurveyUSA poll showing Ford and Corker tied at 48%. These races might be nerveracking, but I think TN and MO will start shifting our way.

[Mr_Spock]

24. So close...

I hope we Dems pull this one off...

[IWantAChange]

28. TN unfortunately is in a 1950's time warp...

As a retail consultant I spent time in the largest cities in their major shopping malls, not exactly the backwoods dirt road crowd (no offense intended - just making a differentiation) and I found the majority of the people racist, suspicious of strangers and not quite in tune with mainstream America. I applaud Harold Ford's efforts but I will be amazed if he can overcome the "ad" and the social stigma attached to it that seems to matter so much to the voters of Tennessee.

[Flirtus]

29. Gosh darn, if we knew you were coming we'd a baked a cake

Good thing you said no offense intended. (Ain't nothing like a good defense!)

In Tennessee, like everywhere else, the key is to get out the vote. If 60-80% of the voters vote and their votes are really counted, then we'll have something to talk about.

[progressivebydesign]

31. Sadly racism still plays in the South.

There are more and more fair-minded and progressive people moving to those areas, or just changing the mindset as each generation grows.. however, the South (where they fly the confederate flag at Nascar events), is not exactly a bastion of equal rights for all, thinking.

My niece and her cuban boyfriend moved to a town in North Carolina a few years ago. They left after a few months of being harrassed and threatened daily... for simply his ethnicity and appearance.

Racism still plays for some backwards folks in America, and in the South in particular. You'd think those people would have gotten a clue by now, but it has to die off slowly with each generation.

[KharmaTrain]

30. Any Incumbent At 45% Or Less Now Is...

Let's say there's still 10% undecided at this point...and in most elections that vote will go 2/3rds to the challenger...Allen's numbers are even worse. That's why at this stage anyone over 50% is looking good...anyone under 45 is vulernable...and an incumbent at that low number is in serious danger since it means the challenger is hanging tough. Even the Repugnicans are seeing this...thus the plug being pulled on DeWine and Rectorum right now and they're fighting so hard in Missouri & Tennessee. Talent hovers between 45-50...I don't think I've seen him over.

This election will be a ground war. Who has the better machine...and I feel we may be surprised here...especially if Mark Warner gets involved. Remember, Democrats have run close elections in Virginia in recent years and a strong Webb showing in NOVA will win this election.

[Oskie]

32. Speak up Ford!

I don't understand why Ford, and other Dems, don't make
counter ads that point out that a candidate who stoops to lies
and smears to win, will stoop to worse things in office. My ad
for Ford would start out with "COKER" and TWO AD
guys viewing their slime ad "Call me, Harold"  then
"COKER" lookalike points out all the lies and
insinuations in the ad. AD GUY #1 says: Lie, cheat, and
steal...that's how we win. AD GUY #2 says to "COKER"
-- "Look you call for the ad to be pulled. We wait a week
and pull it, after we've smeared him." 
"COKER": Okay, go with it.   CUT TO: Ford or a DNC
voiceover saying "A candidate who uses lies and smears to
win, well...just think what he'll do when he's actually in
office."  Maybe even use graphics about Abramoff, Foley,
Ney, lies from Bush about WMD, etc. Reveal the lies and
corruption at the heart of the GOP.  

It's time to stop "admiring" Rove's so-called genius
(which really means he'll lie, cheat and steal at the lowest
denominator) and turn the tables by calling the GOPers on what
they do.