I think the Senate is going to be tough--but not impossible

[WI_DEM]

We could get six or more seats but it will be difficult.

It is increasingly likely we will win Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island and Montana and if we do that is four pick ups.

However, we have one seat that I'm worried about, NJ, and while Menendez has a slight lead in most polls there are lots of undecideds and undecideds tend to break 2-1 against the incumbent. Menendez is being portrayed as a corrupt NJ politician and this year corruption is a big issue. Kean's big advantage is his family name. Menendez advantage is NJ's Democratic tendencies--but you would think that he would be leading by a bigger margin.

This leaves Missouri, Virginia and Tennessee. We really need to win two of those three (if we win NJ--all three of them if we lose NJ). In Missouri the polls are neck and neck. In some McCaskill has a small edge in others Talent does--but all are within the moe. Virginia seems to be tightening somewhat--One poll yesterday showed Allen up by four and another today (LA Times) has Webb up by three. In TN, Harold Ford, Jr. had been closing the gap, but recent polls show Corker gaining ground and is up by five in a LA Times Poll (is this a result of that racist ad the RNC put out?)In all of these states its going to be the ground game/gotv effort which will decide who wins.

Then there is a wild card in Arizona, where the polls are tightening, but Kyl at this point is probably the favorite.

So it's tough, but doable.

My prediction is Dems pick up 5 seats in the Senate.

[Vexatious Ape]

1. I don't think the Right expected to win so soundly in 94

Maybe we could wake up November 8th and be just as surprised.

[WI_DEM]

6. that's what I'm hoping for along with a few surprises

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

2. I'm not as worried about NJ.

Yes, I know the trend against incumbents and all, but voter turnout is going to be key all across the country, and it's our people that are energized, not theirs. I'm slightly worried, but I have to believe the tidal wave is going to push that one in our favor.

I don't think we take Virginia - too much GOP base to deal with down there - but it's not out of the question.

I think 5 seats is a reasonable prediction. I'd toss Missouri into our "will pick up" category - Talent's numbers have been rising, but there's got to be a ceiling on that, considering how low he's been. Tennessee and Virginia are going to come down to the wire. Thank god they're east coast races so we don't have to wait deep into the night to find out who's going to win (hopefully).

[cautiouslywaiting]

3. I don't know

I'm really worried. I think we can win the House but the Senate is going to be a lot harder. There aren't as many seats that we can win in the Senate.

[WI_DEM]

7. true, but even a four or five seat gain is pretty good in a chamber

where only 1/3 of the seats are up for grabs.

[cautiouslywaiting]

9. you're right

I just really don't want them to be in charge of anything. But at least we can make it harder for them to get anything on their agenda accomplished.

[longship]

4. Watch AZ, Kyl vs Pederson.

It's tightening up. If this race goes to a toss-up your five seat pickup could get blown out of the water.

Kyl has apparently run a competent and uncontroversial campaign this year. If he's in trouble it's a clear indication of the depths of the Repuke's problems this year. In that case, I would be calling seven or eight seats for the Dems.

A couple of weeks ago I was calling seven seats, now I've tempered that to six or seven. My reasons are because I think that the pollsters are overstating Repuke strength in their internals. I think voter disaffection for Republicans is stronger this year than pollsters are assuming. This is skewing their results. There have been some absolutely horrible internals, particularly with Zogby polls. I'm not sure if this is widespread, but one is tempted to think it may be.

The deal is that in a year where voter anger is strong, the standard models which have worked in the past might not be accurate. Yet, that is precisely what the pollsters are using.

So I've been looking more at the big picture, the accumulated candidate poll results, the issue polls, accumulated anecdotal evidence, etc. They show something unprecidented may be about to happen.

[BootinUp]

5. I said 5 yesterday

and still think thats right. We will win MT,NJ,PA,OH,RI.

Not very confident on MO,TN,VA,AZ although that last poll in VA is awful encouraging.

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

8. It seems like picking up six or more...

...would require everything to go right. But even if we don't win control of the Senate we'll be in a far, far better bargaining position than we are now, as it'll only take one or two Republican defections on a given issue to force the bastids to negotiate.

Edit to add: And it's likely that any given Republican Senate leadership isn't going to be anywhere near as strong as the current one, and with Bush going down in flames it'll be much more difficult to enforce party unity.

[kath]

11. uhh, about the "one or two Republican defections" - when does THAT ever

Happen? Seems like on any important issue, the Repugs are able to get a party line vote. (which virtually NEVER happens with the Dems :-( )

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

12. It happens quite frequently.

And it will happen even more frequently if the leadership is in trouble, which it is.

[Sammy Pepys]

10. My guesses

Virginia - Allen
Tennessee - Corker
Missouri - I think Talent might squeak this one out
New Jersey - I think Menendez will carry it
Pennsylvania - Casey
Montana - This will be tough. I'm not saying Burns will win, but if anyone has a chance to squeak it out he does. He's got more money than Tester at this critical point.
Ohio - Brown
Maryand - Steele by a nosehair

[BootinUp]

13. Maryland and Montana

Curious why you think Steele in Maryland. It looks like most polls give Cardin a comfortable lead.

My thinking on Montana is that although Burns has closed the gap, he is still in the low 40s. I think undecideds will not be enough for Burns.

[Sammy Pepys]

14. Burns....

I don't know if Montana is a blue enough state, though I'm holding out hope.

As for Steele, for some reason I just think he's going to end up pulling it out. I know he's around 8-10 back, but I think he's the type of candidate that has the potential to close well. I just don't see that in Cardin....my lack of faith in Cardin may be coloring my view a bit.

Of course, I heartily welcome the opportunity to be wrong on both of these! :)