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My own two cents: Analysis of yesterdays events, and after reading today's La Jornada,,,
I'd like to focus attention of the pattern of attacks, the configuration of people, the behavior of the feds, and other events of yesterdays battles, and congeal them into a coherent analysis. First some corrections....
Instead of the Oaxacan legislative buildings and External Relations buildings being burned as I reported, those buildings or offices that were on fire were: the Poder Judicial Federal (federal judicial power, ie federal courts), Tribunal Superior de Justicia del Estado (Superior Court of the State), El Teatro Juarez (the Juarez theatre, and used to be the seat of the State Congress), La Secretaria de Turismo de la Entidad (the Ministry of state tourism), and different commercial establishments...
Those buildings damaged were: the Relaciones Exteriores (various federal offices of the foreign relations ministry), the Registro Publico de la Propiedad (public Registrar of Property), Facultad de Sociologia de UABJO (Sociology Faculty building), La Asociacion Mexicana de Hoteles y Moteles (State chapter of the Mex Association of Hotels and Motels).
Plus El Hotel Camino Real, and two big houses suffered minor damage from molotov cocktails.
And yesterdays reports that there were 8 trucks leaving the 28th Zone Military Base for the zocalo, never was confirmed and obviously never arrived at their supposed destination (unless they are there right now, and I have yet to hear it). However, today La Jornada reports that at 11pm last night there were attacks at the 28th Zone Military base by unknown assailants. And last night there was an indirect warning from the Interior Ministry, thru Church officials, to RU or APPO reps (no sure which) that was duly reported by RU. However, according to todays news, no direct message was transmitted to APPO negotiators by the Interiror Ministry, and unlike the last big confrontation (Nov 1 or 2) where Fox and Abascal convened an emergency cabinet level meeting in DF, this time they continued to attend a frivolous Guanajuato goodbye luncheon (with no urgency of leaving for DF, and convening cabinet).
Also there were eye witness reports that before the battles started there were strange civilian characters congregating in distinct groups, distinct from other demonstrators, in and around the zocalo, and distinct from the young people (anarcho punkers, for lack of a better word), and others who were a part of the mega march. And it was reported today that during the back and forth battles between APPO and the PFP, in and around Santo Domingo church, some of these civilians were chasing and shooting at people running away from Santo Domingo, away from the PFP.
Meanwhile, the ordinary federal forces, the PFP, the state ministerial police, and their commanders, IMO seemed to have been unawares of all the actors involved and played their predictable roles. And after the military base was attacked, is when there were reports/rumours spread of them leaving their bases...
Of course, today's headline of the Milenio newspaper suggested, well, explicitly accused the APPO for everything that transpired yesterday, and no doubt the official intl newswires will parrot this interpretation.
However, I think what La Jornada journalists are suggesting, without actually saying it, and what others suspected yesterday, is that an unseen hand was at work. That unseen hand was the premeditated preparations of the state and/or fed priistas in anticipation of the megamarch. I'll even go so far as to say that the federal govt was either involved or were informed of these plans. The reason La Jornada doesnt explicitly accuse priistas, is because as they present the infromation, above portrayed, is that it is an obvious conclusion (at least in mexico) by the way priistas have behaved in the past.
So if we look at the targets, buildings and institutions, that were attacked, we see a tendency to the federal targets, rather than state. Why would that be suspicious? Because the state priistas know that provoking the feds, gets their attention, and the more probability of a strong reaction. Of course the priistas want the reaction to be against the APPO, and not themselves. The other interesting target is the Motela nd hotel association, and certain commercial establishments. It is fairly well known that business people are vulnerable because of their substantial investments, and it is fairly well known that the local priista establishment know which businesses need further convincing of either their support, or their quiet acquiesance. The blatant attack on the military base is an obvious provocation, to create more repression againt the APPO, as APPO would be their obvious target, if and when they entered the fray on the streets...
The local PRI establishemnts are conniving SOBs whether they feel threatened or when it is business as usual, and like I have said, they have alot of statewide resources and organizational capacity, and should not be underestimated at the extent of their complicity and autonomous initiative (as in, for their own interests and independent of the federal arm of the party, and beyond federal govt control). That doesnt mean the feds dont know this, but themselves manipulate these local establishments for their own ends...
Yesterdays events were a classic revelation of Mexican social reality...
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