Ice at North Pole could be gone by 2040, scientists warn
Dire news on global warming as Geophysical Union meets in S.F.
David Perlman, Chronicle Science Editor
Tuesday, December 12, 2006
Sea ice that for centuries has covered much of the High Arctic has been shrinking at a record pace due to global warming, and as winter began last month in the oceans surrounding the North Pole, larger stretches of open water remained free of ice than ever before, climate scientists reported Monday.
The extent of Arctic sea ice is a key signal of the world's warming rate, and its effects are widespread: Immensely valuable fisheries shift from the coasts of one continent to another, algae and plankton disappear in some areas and increase in others, Arctic wildlife becomes endangered, and torrents of fresh water from melting ice alter the salinity of seas far to the south.
Where only a few months ago experts were predicting that if the present rate of warming continues unchecked there could be no sea ice left in the Arctic by the end of this century, the latest climate calculations indicate the seas there could well be totally ice-free by 2040, the specialists warned.
The latest assessment of global warming and its effects came at the opening of the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco, where more than 15,000 scientists are gathering at Moscone Center this week to present new data from their research in topics as varied as earthquakes, weather, oceanography and space research.
The impact of global warming is felt not only at the Earth's surface, one team of scientists reported: Increased emissions of greenhouse gases from industry -- primarily carbon dioxide -- that raise temperatures at the surface will actually lower them in the outermost reaches of the atmosphere, around 200 to 300 miles above the Earth's surface where most satellites and the International Space Station fly. That region, which scientists term the "thermosphere," actually extends from 60 to 400 miles above Earth.
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