Feb 9, 2006
by Nathan L. Gonzales ( bio | archive | contact )
With a potential political wave developing, Republicans should face the reality that it likely will only break one way – toward the Democrats.
GOP leaders in Washington are trying to point out the “hypocrisy” of the Democratic attacks on ethics and corruption, but recent history shows that if a wave develops, it will disproportionately hurt one party over the other.
Not only are Republicans likely to lose seats this November, but their chances of defeating a Democratic incumbent or taking over a Democratic open seat are minimal. Sure, the GOP has opportunities against newly-appointed Sen. Bob Menendez (D) in New Jersey and a handful of other Democratic incumbents, as well as in open seats in Minnesota and Maryland, but in “wave” elections, competitive seats tend to break heavily toward one party.
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But the bottom line is that Republicans should not depend on off-setting losses in Pennsylvania, Ohio, or Montana with wins elsewhere. Over the last 25 years, when the wave hits, only one party drowns.
Nathan Gonzales is political editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan newsletter that handicaps U.S. House, Senate, and gubernatorial elections
http://www.townhall.com/opinion/columns/NathanLGonzales/2006/02/09/185936.html