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Everyone taking the long view can see this. The surge strategy basically bought time for the general counterinsurgency plan of bribing various parties, and specifically the Sahwa groups (Awakening Council). Why do these bribes have to be paid? Because the Shia government will not build equitable wealth sharing with the Sunni,. and the Sunni have no natural resources to draw on. So, the Sunni can avoid falling into utter economic catastrophe in one of two eays: they can essentially steal resources from the Shia areas (this has been the strategy of the Baath party and the determining factor in Iraqi history for 50 years), or they can get that money somewhere else (i.e., US taxpayer funded protection money). During the insurgency, they largely operated through choice 1, causing chaos in Iraq in order to get to a point where the Shia would submit. Since the surge and counterinsurgency pay-offs, they have opted for choice #2, reaping the rewards of US fear by cashing large DoD checks on the first and fifteenth.
But the problem remains clear: The Shia government will not share revenues with the resource-less Sunni regions. Neither, needless to say, will the Kurds. That is a fundamental failure of government, and it is severe and continuing.
Obama's quite right not to sign on to the Surge Victory Hysteria. It is inevitably unstable because it rests on the shakiest foundation imaginable: the complete failure of the Iraqi state apparatus to deal equitably between ethnic groups. It rests on US payoffs as a substitute for a working government. Conservatives should understand intuitively that this arrangement is unsustainable. It is welfare extracted at gunpoint by the Sunni war tribes. Conservatives have argued forever that somebody ON welfare has no incentive to get OFF welfare. It's only their utter and slavish devotion to the flawed neo-conservative dogmas that prevent them from seeing this same dynamic in Iraq. Obama sees it. I'll do you one better: Petraeus sees it, too. He knows that payoffs as counterinsurgency is a short-term fix, not a long-term structure. He knows they need to develop real structures, and they can only do so, as Obama has argued since the beginning, if rapid withdrawal of US forces is a real event on the horizon.
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