A Rarity: Bill Frist is much smarter than Bill Maher (on vaccines)

[ProfessorPlum]

Run time: 07:07 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tB5DLf1Qt78   Posted on YouTube: October 11, 2009 By YouTube Member: Views on YouTube: 0   Posted on DU: October 12, 2009 By DU Member: ProfessorPlum Views on DU: 3801

 
Wow, I find it hard to believe that Bill Maher is so stupid on this issue. I would urge him (and other people who think the flu can't kill healthy people) to read The Great Influenza by John Barry. Holy shit is this stupid and dangerous for him to be spreading this dumb idea. I thought Maher believed in science. His body issues, when crossed with science, sometimes produce these weird opinions.

[catbyte]

1. Yeah, but I loved Richard Belzer ripping Frist a new one

right after the panel was introduced. I can't remember everything exactly, but Belzer said, "If Frist hadn't kidnapped and killed cats while in college, played doctor in the Terry Schiavo case, and (something else I've forgotten), he'd be President now." Bill Mahr didn't look too amused, but I thought it was hilarious.

Diane

Anishnabe in MI

Screw Columbus

[rd_kent]

2. I agree, I was very surprised watching that how ignorant Maher is re: vaccines.

I fail to uderstand the logic that folks use to not vaccinate. Even if a link WAS (and any links are dubious at best) found that tied vaccines to autism, etc, the ADVANTAGES of those vaccines so far greatly outweigh those *perceived* risks, that NOT vaccinating makes one very irresponsible.

[Writer]

5. Maher has cast aside traditional metaphysics (religion) for his own metaphysics. n/t

[Kalentros]

28. Protection

Maybe Maher thinks that his wood chip diet and constant bong hits will help.

[no limit]

3. I couldn't believe what I was hearing when I was watching this the other night

my head almost exploded when Frist was the voice of sanity.

[grantcart]

4. Maher: "I don't trust the government with sticking a needle in my arm"

How fucking stupid is he.

Lets just start with the elimination of small pox. Man the anti intellectualism in this country is astounding.

[rd_kent]

6. He lost a lot of "cool points" with me Friday.

[Gman2]

15. He's not a philosopher, intellectual, or even very educated. He is funny though.

[valerief]

7. That was the pre_Raygun govt. nt

[Techn0Girl]

23. Maher: "I don't trust the government with sticking a needle in my arm"

"How fucking stupid is he."

Not so stupid my friend :)
You see, I was stuck with U.S. Army government air injectors during my military service in the late 70's.

It turns out that air injectors were a major carrier of Hepatitis C which I was diagnosed with 2 years ago (and cured by the V.A.through Chemo six months ago)

The Army did not discontinue the use of air injectors until the late 80's or so. It turns out that 30% of all Veterans of that era who were tested by the V.A.have turned up positive for HCV.

Oops.

I'd like to also remind you of the not fully tested anthrax vaccine that was giving to soldiers in the early 2000's that made many of them chronically ill.

Remember that Donald Rumsfeld, the Secretary of Defense at the time, was on the boards of several Big Pharma companies and profited a great deal from their stock rise during his reign.

I'm no tin foil hatter but government has been less than trustworthy with itl;s aliances to Big Businesses in the past - especially the medical industry

[grantcart]

24. The discussion is about taking the flu shot

None of what you have said is on point. We are not talking about the government administering shots but encouraging people to take the seasonal flu shot that has been adapted for H1N1.

The peer review science on the subject is 100% conclusive on this and Maher sounds like an idiot when he talks about it.

He talks about the virus mutating - that's why they have to come up with another flu shot every year. The effectiveness of the flu innoculations are well established and the dangers completely debunked.

Maher also doesn't "believe" that H1N1 has and fatal capabilities and he wants to argue the fact with a doctor. In San Diego we have had a number of healthy adults die from h1n1. Pregnant women die at a rate of 9-1 compared to non pregnant women.

Each year flu kills tens of thousands and this is a particularly virulent strain and could prove particularly effective.

How you link this to the type of injection device that the army used 30 years ago is a complete breakdown of logic. Smallpox killed 500,000,000 people throughout history, twice the number killed in all the wars combined. Government actions around the world led to its elimination. Giving untrue hysterical information about innoculations if your an entertainment provider and not a medical provider will result in the death of some people who think that because your on TV you are an expert on everything.

[Techn0Girl]

25. The discussion is about taking the flu shot

"The peer review science on the subject is 100% conclusive on this and Maher sounds like an idiot when he talks about it."

I'm afraid that it is not conclusive at all.
There are NO ... none at all ... statistics being collected regarding flu vaccine effectiveness in the United States. Thus there is NO consensus.

I have looked at 3 peer reviewed articles in the last hour. Their estimate of flu vaccine effectiveness varied widely from 30-50% (at best)

"Each year flu kills tens of thousands and this is a particularly virulent strain and could prove particularly effective."

It kills 36,000 people to be precise. And based on CDC stats that indicate that thus far H!N1 has only killed 1300 in the US - the disease appears less deadly than most other flu virus to date. There is absolutely no evidence for believing otherwise.

"How you link this to the type of injection device that the army used 30 years ago is a complete breakdown of logic."

I'm sorry if this was difficult to follow for you. I will restate it:
There is a proven connection between Big Pharma and the U.S. government (see my other links and articles). Thus the U.S. government has been less than forthright in the past in announcing their monetary connection to Big Business and it;s influence over them. Thus there is some concern that the current dire warnings (coming by the way more from pundits and Big Pharma itself) are accurate.

That is the connection.

In the 70's a government contract with a medical company infected millions with Hepatitis C virus. In the 90's an untested anthrax vaccine, provided by a government contractor was tested on many Gulf war soldiers leading to chronic disability for many. In the 2000's a trumped up bird flu scare led to the rapid rise of Tamaflu stock (proported to be a cure - it wasn't) - a major shareholder of the contractor providing Tamaflu happenned to be the Secretary of Defense at the time/

Those are the connections.

I am NOT anti-vaccine. I am very PRO vaccine for appropriate reasons.

[grantcart]

31. Your ability to follow the logic of an argument is highly defective.

1) The 100% peer review conclusive agreement is that vaccines are a cost effective measure to reduce the impact of the flu. Maher is arguing that flu vaccines have no impact and very likely have a negative impact and we shouldn't trust the government.

100% of the peer review literature conclusively agrees that flu vaccines help and there is no peer review study that supports the Maher position.

2) At no point did I suggest that flu vaccines are 100% effective but your reading comprehension doesn't follow the point being discussed. This is the second time that you have taken the discussion off point into a completely irrelevent dead end.

3) CDC has found that vaccine efficacy in recent years has reached 75%

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_vaccine
Studies demonstrate that vaccination can be a cost-effective counter-measure to seasonal outbreaks of influenza;<39> but not perfect. A study led by Dr. David K. Shay in February, 2008 reported that

"full immunization against flu provided about a 75 percent effectiveness rate in preventing hospitalizations from influenza complications in the 2005-6 and 2006-7 influenza seasons."<40>

Maher's point in the video that viruses continuing mutation renders vaccines ineffective has also been disproved by the CDC. So that even when virus variation creates a miss match it provides additional protection without complication

In most years (16 of the 19 years before 2007), the flu vaccine strains have been a good match for the circulating strains.<52> In other flu seasons like that of 2007/2008, the match was less useful. But even a mis-matched vaccine can often provide some protection:

...ntibodies made in response to vaccination with one strain of influenza viruses can provide protection against different, but related strains. A less than ideal match may result in reduced vaccine effectiveness against the variant viruses, but it still can provide enough protection to prevent or lessen illness severity and prevent flu-related complications. In addition, it’s important to remember that the influenza vaccine contains three virus strains so the vaccine can also protect against the other two viruses. For these reasons, even during seasons when there is a less than ideal match, CDC continues to recommend influenza vaccination. This is particularly important for people at high risk for serious flu complications and their close contacts.<53>

Celebreties who undermine public confidence in public health warnings and public health instructions on flu vaccines will only have a negative impact and will bear the responsibility for any high risk people who have taken their advice rather than that of the overwhelming opinion of the medical community. Your sophmoric attempts undermine the clear advice of the CDC because the companies that make it make a profit is simple irrational issue flogging.

Maher doubted that h1n1 was showing any real lethal activity (and your straw man on completely unrelated events in the Army and Tamiflu) is rendered into ashes by very recent announcements by the CDC:

http://health.usnews.com/articles/health/healthday/2009/10/01/28-pregnant-women-have-died-from-swine-flu-cdc.html

THURSDAY, Oct. 1 (HealthDay News) -- Twenty-eight pregnant women in the United States had died from H1N1 swine flu as of the end of August, and 100 pregnant women had been hospitalized in intensive care, federal health officials said Thursday.
Click here to find out more!

While the officials said they've never tracked deaths of pregnant women from seasonal flu, the number of deaths from the H1N1 flu could be significant.

"These are really upsetting numbers," Dr. Anne Schuchat, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, said during an afternoon press conference.

"We have obstetricians here at CDC who are coordinating the outreach as well as the surveillance efforts around it," she said. "And they're talking to doctors around the country who have never seen this kind of thing before. We don't track seasonal flu. We haven't in the past tracked seasonal flu complications in pregnancy. But what we are seeing is quite striking."

Schuchat said it's not yet clear whether there is something different about the H1N1 flu's effect on pregnant women, or whether researchers are noticing its effect on pregnant women more because the virus is being monitored closely.

Nothing in the science supports Maher. He should have checked himself when, by his own admission he said that he was taking a position that is basically supported only by conservatives who distrust science.

Here are CDC's most recent statements on H1N1, H1N1 stability, the vaccine's efficacy, and its safety:

http://www.cdc.gov/media/transcripts/2009/t091006.htm

This flu vaccine is made as flu vaccine is made each year. By the same companies. In the same production facilities. With the same procedures. With the same safety, safeguards. We have had literally hundreds of millions of people vaccinated against flu with flu vaccine made in this way. That enables us to have a high degree of confidence in the safety of the vaccine. It has an excellent safety record.


. . .


People always have concerns about vaccinations and that's understandable. We would rather not take any shots or medicine and stay healthy. The flu vaccination, being tried and true, is very effective. What we're seeing still is an excellent match between the virus that's spreading throughout the U.S. And the strain that was chosen to make the vaccine against. So, we expect a very good match a very good degree of efficacy of the vaccine. It will work to protect you if you get in time. Three major concerns that people have, despite the clear message from all of us in public health and doctors throughout the health care field that vaccine is our best tool to protect against the flu. Vaccine is the best tool to protect the flu, because, not only does it prevent people from becoming severely ill, it also prevents the spread of flu. The first concern that we hear is, oh, flu is just a mild illness. Actually, on average, flu is not a mild illness. It can make you pretty sick, knock you out for a day or two or three. Make you miss school and work. And for too many people end up sending them to the hospital, to the intensive care unit and tragically some people may die from it. In fact, this year already, we have seen quite a few children who have died from flu. So, although it is not a disease that will send lots of people who get it to the hospital, it can be very serious and even for those for whom it's an average case, it's no picnic. You would rather avoid it for yourself and your kids.



Our biggest concern is that the virus could change, mutate to become more deadly. We have seen nothing that would be the case. So far, in fact, the virus has been quite stable genetically. It hasn't changed much at all.

[Techn0Girl]

32. Because nothing wins a debate better then pretending to be Mr. Spock....

Your Vulcan kung-foo aside....

"3) CDC has found that vaccine efficacy in recent years has reached 75%"

Citing a wikipedia link as proof of a medical statistic is rediculous and I won't justify it with a further response. You might as well have cited Archie comics. If you want to cite a stat than please give me a direct CDC link or a link to a peer reviewed journal.

The rest of your post just isn't worth responding to because it goes off in a dozen different directions.
I have no idea what your argument is and neither, I think, do you.

Your fear mongering about pregnant woman is utter nonsense in as much as you quote "While the officials said they've never tracked deaths of pregnant women from seasonal flu," So no one knows if your 28 pregnant women dead is normal or not. I have no idea what you are arguing.

The facts are that for the entire year of 2009 - up till yesterday., H1N1 has accounted for only 5% of total expected flu deaths this year. 95% of flu deaths in this country this year have been from other influenza virus - NOT H1N1.

So if you want to worry about swine flu Boogy men and pretend that your doing the world a service then be my guest. Go cover your doors with duct tape and raise the Alert level to Orange if you want.

Bill Maher had a point I think and the statistics to date bear it out.

[grantcart]

38. Christ on a cracker you are dense.

Here is the NYT Times citation that was quoted in Wiki

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/28/health/28flu.html?_r=1

In a new study reported at Wednesday’s meeting, Dr. David K. Shay, who led a team from the C.D.C. and eight state health departments, found that full immunization against flu provided about a 75 percent effectiveness rate in preventing hospitalizations from influenza complications in the 2005-6 and 2006-7 influenza seasons. (The 75 percent rate could range, according to a standard statistical measure known as confidence intervals, from 41 percent to 91 percent.)

Here is the peer review article from CDC

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/professionals/acip/efficacycomparison.htm

The overall efficacy in preventing laboratory-documented influenza from all three influenza strains combined was 85% and 71%, respectively, when challenged 28 days after vaccination by viruses to which study participants were susceptible before vaccination. The difference in efficacy between the two vaccines was not statistically significant in this limited study. No additional challenges were conducted to assess efficacy at time points later than 28 days. In a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that was conducted among young adults during the 2004--05 influenza season, when the majority of circulating H3N2 viruses were antigenically drifted from that season's vaccine viruses, the efficacy of LAIV and TIV against culture-confirmed influenza was 57% and 77%, respectively. The difference in efficacy was not statistically significant and was attributable primarily to a difference in efficacy against influenza B (222). A similar study conducted during the 2005--06 influenza season found no significant difference in vaccine efficacy.

Of course you don't know what "my argument" is, you haven't been able to follow it from the begining but going off on issues (Army injection processes or Pharma hegemony in the pharmaceutical market).

You have offered no citations even though you state that you have been reading "peer review journals".


Here are the crticial points of the argument:

1) Bill Maher acknowledges that he is spouting rightwing points when he talks off the top of his head about the dangers of vacination. He makes it worse by saying that there are negative problems with vaccines, that the H1N1 is unstable.

2) Here is what has been proven with peer review citations from the CDC

a) The efficacy of flu vaccines in the past is very high, there is no reason to believe that the current season will not demonstrate a similar pattern.

b) H1N1 has proven to be a highly stable virus without a lot of mutation so that the vaccine will be well matched.

c) Even if the vacine was not well matched it still increase protection and decreases virus transmission.

d) H1N1 has demonstrated a higher rate of fatality than regular seasonal flu affecting children, pregnant women, elderly, and people with underlying health conditions.

e) The rate of problems with people reacting negatively to a flu virus is very low, about 1 in 100,000 and there is no reason to believe that this year it will be any different and this has been confirmed with the trials so far.

Conclusion: Maher sounds like an ass when he simply parrots wacko right wing freeper talking points about the H1N1 virus. It is consistent with the anti intellectual/ anti government paranoia of the far right. Like many other anti science positions of the radical right it undermines public health and will result in the unnecessary deaths of people who are in vulnerable populations and follow it.


The issues has been fully engaged, encompassed, documented, cited and proven.

There is nothing more that you can write that will entice me to return to further assist in the public humiliation that you seem to so desperately pursue. Fini.

[cliffordu]

43. Nice work, GC...I prolly shoulda warned that gal she was fucking with

the King fucking kong of research around here, but wanted to wait until she annoyed you enough for the inevitable spanking.

That was a good one.

[Techn0Girl]

44. Christ on a cracker you are dense.

Arguing with Internet kooks is not really fun.

For the benefit of other people who can actually think rather than merely react - here are some recent pertinent articles (no Wiki references) -and for the benefit of myself I am putting you on my ignore list because I just don't need to waste my time any further - feel free to run around yelling that the sky is falling. FWIW Most people apparently agree with me since this thread only received a +2 rating. Most people already understand that the swine flu "scare" is similar to the avian flu "scare" and other assorted nonsense.

Swine flu death rate similar to seasonal flu: expert
http://www.reuters.com/article/healthNews/idUSTRE58E6NZ20090916


Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild
http://articles.latimes.com/2009/apr/30/science/sci-swine-reality30

Swine flu death rate similar to seasonal flu: expert
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/life/2009-09/17/content_8702836.htm

[Hyper_Eye]

54. Hey I feel your pain!

Further down in the video responses Techn0Girl responded to something I wrote and that conversation was not any easier. I would say that yours went slightly better than mine did actually.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=385&topic_id=387458&mesg_id=387527

Trying to have a conversation with Techn0Girl is like beating your head into a brick wall over and over and over. You try so hard to break through and get her to the point of having the same conversation as you but she simply has no reading comprehension skills whatsoever. So I am now right there with you on her ignore list and thank goodness for that!

[ProfessorPlum]

40. excellent post thank you for the research

[spiritual_gunfighter]

8. Yeah, Maher proves how anti-science he is

when he comes up with this garbage. I am pretty astounded.

[NorCalDem]

9. I probably won't get the swine flu vaccine as well....

but for a different reason. I am not that scared of the swine flu, and there are plenty of other folks out there (e.g., the elderly, young, and pregnant, etc.) that have a far greater need for the vaccine than I do. Since it is in such limited supply, i'll happily forgo getting the vaccine for now such that others with greater need might get it first.

That being said, Maher is an idiot arguing against vaccination and an idiot for arguing that swine flu isn't dangerous. It's not as dangerous as the media would have one believe, however it puts the regular seasonal flu to shame. Protect yourself people!

[Techn0Girl]

22. I probably won't get the swine flu vaccine as well....

"That being said, Maher is an idiot arguing against vaccination and an idiot for arguing that swine flu isn't dangerous. It's not as dangerous as the media would have one believe, however it puts the regular seasonal flu to shame. Protect yourself people!"

Actually , if you look at an earlier post that I made here you will see that the CDC estimates that 36,000 people die each year due to plain ordinary flu in the U.S. You will also see in that same post a link that points to the fact that , with the year already 3/4's of the way over, swine flu has only accounted for 1300 deaths in the U.S. as of yesterday.

This swine flu has only killed 5% of the expected normal total this year (so far) for people who die of flu.

If ANYTHING, thus far swine flu has proven to be less deadly than most ordinary flu outbreaks.

Don't drink that Big Pharma Koolaid my friend :)

[Sky Masterson]

10. Yea I don't get him on this either.

He is totally fuck up in his thinking on this issue..

[Hyper_Eye]

11. I actually blogged on this today

Talk Radio Hosts Provide Sound Medical Advice

Some people may not like my blog on it. Sorry if you don't agree with me but this is how I feel about the issue. This is my first lengthy blog.

[kimmerspixelated]

12. Maybe Maher's not so stupid.

Maybe the sheeple that always inject whatever the gov. tells them to are dangerously unaware of the toxins, the adjuvant preservatives that are reported to be many thousands of times stronger in the vax than what caused the Gulf War Syndrome. Even the official websites on H1N1 vax says that 30K will be maimed or die from the vax. Those statistics should outweigh the good. Maher didn't bring up those facts, though.

[Pyrzqxgl]

13. I watch Maher every week but I wish he'd cool it on this particular rant.

It's embarasing to listen to him steer the conversation
to his ill informed ideas every week.

[Becks Magic Undies]

14. I watch him every week too

and sometimes I have to facepalm at the stuff he says. I don't know how a person can be so right on some (most) issues, and so wrong on others.

[SamuelA]

58. Maher is a bit slow

Maher is a bit slow

[Techn0Girl]

16. There is some truth to both sides ....

Most flu shots are ineffective - they only provide a 30% chance of protection against infection (according to CDC stats) . This is because the standard flu shot is developed over one year before the targeted flu season begins and the vaccine is based on a BEST guess as to what the prevailing strain will be one year later. Most flu shots are little more than a huge money maker for the pharm industry. Most of the money comes from government subsidies.

Remember the big Avain flu panic some years ago? We were all going to get sick. Panic!

Remember how Tamaflu was going to be the cure all for this disastrous epidemic (that never happenned)?

Now do you remember how it was found out that Donald Rumsfeld, then Secretary of Defense, was the president of the company that made Tamaflu and subsequently made a fortune from it - and his fear mongering about the bird flu as Sec of Defense?

Right.
Most of this flu scare is just a scam.

With that said, my understanding is that the current H1N1 vaccine (the one that just came out this month) is supposed to target the H1N1 virus as it was back about 6-9 months ago (but not what it has or will mutate into). So that particular flu shot would probably be wrthwhile.

But make no mistake - NOTHING the Pharm companies do , they do for your benefit. They do it only for short term profit. And Government officials are firmly in their and their lobbyists pockets.

Find out who is making the H1N1 vaccine. Then find out who owns stock in that company. I would think there is a good chance the answers to those questions would be as interesting today as it was back in Rumsfeld's time.

Fear. Panic. Profit.

[Pubslayer]

17. I had swine flu.

There was a small outbreak at work. It was no big deal; I was able to go on about my day. I had lower back aches, mild sore throat. It came on very fast, and only lasted a few days. My doctor said they had 50k case in Europe and the mortality rate of H1N1 is actually LOWER than standard influenza. He said the media is making it into something it is not. I don't do flu shots. I feel it is better for the body to do as much processing as it can, and only intervene if you are about to die. This was my first flu in two years. And please - you cannot compare a polio vaccine with the H1N1 - one has been around for 55 years, the other has been around for 4 months. In 1976 we had a similar outbreak of swine flu. The vaccine at the time killed about 25 people and several hundred developed Guillain-Barre Syndrome, which causes permanent paralysis. This is not internet hearsay - this has been well documented and it is easy to study. Please do a little honest research into the pros and cons of the vaccine, and look up the REAL data before you form an opinion.

[Hyper_Eye]

19. If I could provide one correction

Guillain-Barré syndrome is usually not permanent with a full recovery rate of around 80% and a recovery with disability at about 5% - 10%. With 33% of the population inoculated in 1976 there was a total of 500 confirmed GBS cases and there were a total of 25 deaths. That is an incredibly small instance rate and no other flu vaccination has been linked to GBS. I am not saying there is absolutely no cause for concern but the truth is that vaccination-caused GBS has been greatly blown out of proportion. There is a major difference between the swine flu of 1976 and H1N1. H1N1 has already been proven to be vastly different and more dangerous than the 1976 flu with the number of deaths already attributable to H1N1. Certainly there have been many more deaths than were caused by GBS linked to the 1976 vaccination.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu_outbreak

[Techn0Girl]

21. If I could provide one correction...

"H1N1 has already been proven to be vastly different and more dangerous than the 1976 flu with the number of deaths already attributable to H1N1."

I'm sorry but that's simply not correct.
In an average year he Center for Disease control says that there are 36,000 deaths in the United States attributable to plain ordinary flu.

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/us_flu-related_deaths.htm

As of one day ago, the TOTAL U.S. number of swine flu deaths was only 1300

http://www.wsaz.com/newskentucky/headlines/63542222.html

To recap - NORMAL United States flu deaths each year - 36,000
TOTAL U.S. swine flu deaths this year - 1300

Thus there is no basis for concluding that swine flu is more dangerous than any other flu. In fact
The total deaths this year from it (the year is 3/4's over) are about 5% of an average flu season.

[Hyper_Eye]

26. I didn't say it was more deadly than the seasonal flu.

I said it was more dangerous than the swine flu of 1976. The swine flu only caused a single death that year. So the 1300 deaths so far this year shows it is far more dangerous. You obviously read what I said incorrectly. Also, considering the fact that flu season is just starting the death toll from swine flu has the potential to be far greater. You have compared the number of people killed by the seasonal flu annually to the number of people killed by swine flu so far. But that is not a fair comparison because the swine flu is spreading and is likely not even close to its peak infection rate for this year yet. Both the swine flu and seasonal flu will kill many more people before the year is over. I am not saying that people are going to die in hugely greater numbers than usual but it would be foolish to think either the seasonal flu or H1N1 do not present a threat. In particular H1N1 has been very deadly for infected pregnant women.

[Techn0Girl]

29. I didn't say it was more deadly than the seasonal flu.

"I said it was more dangerous than the swine flu of 1976. The swine flu only caused a single death that year. So the 1300 deaths so far this year shows it is far more dangerous."

I'm not sure where you're cherry picking your statistics from but I would call you on the one where you say that the flu of some year only caused a single death.

I have already linked to the CDC stats that show flu causes 36,000 deaths a year.
I have already linked to the CDC stat that said this H1N1 variant has only caused 1300 deaths thus far this year.

I know that people cling to their misconceptions as if it were some giant teddybear but the facts are there for anyone without a closed mind. This year swine flu has only caused 5% of expected flu deaths overall.

Those are the facts.
Saying that swine flu is more deadly than other flu just is not consistent with reality.
Reality shows that, if anything, H1N1 is less deadly.

[Hyper_Eye]

30. I was already quite clear about which influenza I was referring to

I am specifically referring to the 1976 swine flu influenza scare that prompted that mass vaccination that ultimately resulted in 25 deaths. This is the event that you refer to when you talk about Guillain-Barré syndrome. That would be because it is the only vaccination that has ever been linked to an increase in susceptibility to GBS. The pandemic simply didn't materialize and the only death was the army recruit that initially tested positive for swine flu. This is the event that I referred to initially and it is the one I referred to in my follow-up. I will repeat that I never said anything about the deadliness of H1N1 in relation to seasonal flu. Not a single word. Read what I said again and try to actually understand what I am saying. Since you would like to express knowledge about vaccination-related GBS you might try to inform yourself about the 1976 swine flu scare that triggered the mass inoculation that resulted in the 500 reports of GBS and 25 deaths. The actual flu that was vaccinated against didn't really go anywhere outside of the military base it initially infected and there was only 1 death. This was the one and only flu scare that triggered the one and only mass inoculation that resulted in a very tiny number of GBS cases that everyone is going on about. So what I have compared is a flu that killed 1 person to a flu that has, so far, killed 1300 people. So you tell me where I am misinformed in anything I have said so far.

If you knew anything about me whatsoever you would never use the word closed-minded as a describing attribute. I have stated plain fact and you are either reading upside down or you are simply neglecting to comprehend it. If you want to claim an informed status how about trying to be actually be informed about what your talking about?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_swine_flu
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swine_influenza#1976_U.S._outbreak

To use your own metaphor have an open and informed mind and let loose the grip on that big teddybear. Everything I have said is true and the information is easy to obtain if you can simply take a moment to read the words I wrote.

[Techn0Girl]

33. I was already quite clear about which influenza I was referring to

In your post before you said the 1976 flu resulted in 1 death and in the post above you say that it resulted in 25. But in either case you never cite any factual sources. I can't hit a moving target.

And I an NOT going to respond to a Wikipedia statistic. You might as well cite Glen Beck's Annual Fact Book for all the legitimacy Wiki has regarding scientific issues.

Look, you are going ape here because you have a belief that you will not let go of.

The facts are that this year's H1N1 flu has accounted for only 5% of the death rate of any other plain ordinary flu. I already gave the CDC links to back that up (several times).

Any normal person would look at that stat and say "Hey! Maybe H1N1 isn't very deadly ". But you are getting all Wiki on my butt and citing some 1976 stats from dubious sources. Whatever. Hold on tight to your fears.... the stats so far do not bear you out. But whatever.

And for your information I was involved in the 1977 H1N1 flu epidemic as a medic in Ft. Benning Ga. Lot's of people fell ill. Including me. Very few deaths, if any. - in fact I don't recall a single one at the base myself but it was a ling time ago. I had H1N1 - I was involved in setting up a field hospital to supplement Martin army Hosp which was overwhelmed.

I was there . I wasn't citing Wiki.

But my experience is still irrelevant.
The CDC stats are all that matters - and the stats say it's not very deadly as influenza goes.

[Hyper_Eye]

37. Wow you have a serious reading comprehension problem

Everything I said was absolutely 100% clear. Take an aspirin because you must have a monstrous headache going to be so incapable of understanding what you are reading. Let me separate them to make it easier.

The swine flu of 1976 killed one person.

The swine flu vaccine of 1976 caused 500 cases of GBS that resulted in 25 deaths.


One more time:

GBS caused 25 deaths and that GBS was linked to influenza VACCINE.

Swine Influenza caused one death. That is 1 death caused by H1N1 INFLUENZA.

I didn't mix up any words. You just can't comprehend what you are reading. I notice I am not the first person within this topic to point that out to you.

The death caused by the 1976 H1N1 flu at Ft. Dix is documented fact and so is everything else I have said.

I am not going ape about anything. You simply don't understand what I am saying and you believe my statements to be incorrect but that perception is completely due to your lack of reading comprehension. I am actually not interested in arguing any longer with someone who can't keep a few facts straight in their head long enough to understand a very simple statement of facts. I have no doubts about the things that I have said because they are absolute documented facts. You might be able to figure that out yourself if you weren't so incredibly confused when reading anything someone else writes.

Maybe your inability to follow a thought through to the end or understand research concepts is part of the problem. Wikipedia contains sourced material. If it is not sourced then it is cited for one. When someone links to a Wikipedia article they are linking to a concentration of sourced material. You have the option to view those sources and determine the validity of the information provided. Distrust in Wikipedia content is largely a product of laziness on the part of people who don't see it for the collection of sources it is. The articles are summaries of sourced documents. Look at the sources. It is an invaluable resource in that it is the easiest way to find fact presenting sources on any particular subject. Let me present it this way:

http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no01/05-0965.htm

That is the sourced link for the information provided at Wikipedia in relation to the 1976 swine flu outbreak at Ft. Dix. It is a report on the incident at the CDC! Wait... whats that? The stats I was referring to came from the CDC which is exactly where your stats were coming from! How could that be when my stats are so dubious? Oh wait! You didn't bother to see that the stats came from the CDC because you were too busy not understanding what I have written and disbelieving what I have said. The number of infected and killed by swine influenza there, as presented by the CDC is clear. 1 death, 13 hospitalizations. Ok, now try to follow the events that followed. The events at Ft. Dix resulted in the 1976 Swine Flu scare which resulted in mass inoculation. 33% of U.S. citizens were vaccinated for H1N1. The vaccine was linked to 500 cases of GBS that followed. Of those GBS cases 25 people died. Those 25 deaths have absolutely nothing to do with the flu whatsoever. I never said they did nor did I say anything that implied they did. They were 100% caused by GBS that was linked to, and may have been caused by, H1N1 influenza VACCINE.

I do not fear swine flu. I simply stated facts about GBS and the incidences of it that have been linked to vaccination which would be the H1N1 vaccines of 1976. That is it. I never even argued with you here against anything you have said. I have simply tried to make you understand that you misunderstood my initial post in the first place and everything I have posted in response has been to try to breakthrough to you because you don't seem to have any idea what I'm talking about. In other words, we are not and have not at any point been talking about the same thing. That isn't my fault because your post was in response to one that I made and at that point you were already off on something else because you didn't understand me. I just don't think I can make it any more clear than I have made it in this post. If you don't get it after this that is simply too bad.

To finish the whole thing off: I never said anything you said was wrong. I said that you were wrong about what you thought I said and you were from the very first sentence. If you and I aren't having the same conversation nothing productive is happening. We have not been having the same conversation in a single reply to each other due to the initial misunderstanding you had of what I said in the first place.

On another note I would like to know what you are referring to when you reference Ft. Benning Ga. in 1977. I can't find any record of an H1N1 flu epidemic at Ft. Benning in 1977. I am not saying there was no influenza at Ft. Benning in 1977 but it apparently wasn't serious enough to warrant a report on it. Any information would be appreciated. But that is not the incident that I have referred to once again. Just to reiterate, the event that is referred to when people talk about the last H1N1 Flu Pandemic scare which resulted in mass inoculation was an outbreak of H1N1 at Fort Dix in February of 1976. The first case was that of a recruit who died the day after experiencing symptoms. There were more cases around the base including 13 more hospitalizations. The events there triggered a national pandemic scare and caused a recommendation for mass vaccination. In response 33% of the countries population got a vaccine and the GBS cases and GBS-related deaths followed (in response to vaccine - NOT FLU.) The pandemic never materialized and only Fort Dix was effected. The single death at Fort Dix was the only death that resulted from it.

It is my sincere hope that this post clicks with you. It would be great if there were a point during which you went, "Oooooohhhhh! Now I see! He isn't arguing with me. He is trying to clear up my initial misunderstanding about what he was saying and now I understand why!" For some reason I think that hope probably won't come to fruition and we will have to let this misunderstanding die. All the best to you.

[Techn0Girl]

45. Wow you have a serious reading comprehension problem

I'm sorry that we haven't communicated well.

My only points that I wished to make were as follows:

1. The current H1N1 virus has proven itself to be no more deadly (and apparently less deadly) than any standard flu virus according to CDC ststistics.

2. Wikipedia is not a legitimate resource for medical or scientific knowledge and I discount references to it immediately.

3. The virus outbreak stats that you cite from 1976 , for which you have never given a legitimate reference , are completely irrelevant. My argument is that, according to CDC stats since 1990, swine flu is no more deadly than the common flu as having been tracked for that time period. Stats , especially uncited stats, from 1976 are irrelevant. To make this clear - i don't care about your 1976 stats. It doesn't matter to me whether they are right or wrong. They are completely irrelevant to what I was trying to convey. I hope that I got that across.

Regarding my Ft. Benning experience that occurred in '77 (or possibly '78 - it was a long time ago) for which you can not find a reference: this may come as a surprise to you so you may want to sit down prior to reading further - OK? Here's the thing - not everything that ever happened is recorded on the web. It's a groundbreaking thought so you may want to take some time to process it.

[Hyper_Eye]

48. I gave you the link. That information came directly from the CDC.

You stated yourself that all that matters are the stats from the CDC. Well click the damn link I provided directly to the CDC website with a report on the 1976 incident I am referring to which is the event that was being referred to from the very beginning. The stats from 1976, which are absolutely undeniable fact, are only 100% relevant because that was what I was talking about and you replied to me. The reason that I talked about those statistics is because I replied to someone that was talking about GBS AND THAT IS THE INCIDENT IN WHICH GBS OCCURRED! The problem is that you don't get it. You apparently can't wrap your brain around it. I am done. You live on another planet and I have no interest in joining you there. If you want to actually understand the conversation that you felt so inclined to jump into read it again from the beginning and try to actually put some thought behind comprehending it!

And btw, your Ft. Benning experience is only 100% irrelevant. Do you understand that we were talking about H1N1, vaccination, and GBS? There are two events relevant to H1N1 and vaccination in recent history and that would be during 1976 and 2009. There is only one event that is relevant to GBS and that is during 1976. That was the conversation. You joined it so it would be worth a moment of your time to know what the hell the conversation you joined was about. What I just said is what it was about. That is it. Do you get it? Is it getting through? I highly doubt it. I am done having this conversation. It is close to the most impossible conversation I have ever had. Enjoy Pluto or wherever it is you spend your time.

[Techn0Girl]

50. I gave you the link. That information came directly from the CDC.

Dude,
What part of "I don't care about he 1976 statistics nor am interested in discussing them" is difficult to understand?

We are not able to communicate nor do I believe we will be in the future. So into the ignore bin you go.
Sorry.
Not.

[Hyper_Eye]

52. That is fine. I will enjoy my spot in ignore.

I will just note for the record should anyone come by this in the future... I didn't reply to this person. This person replied to me but, as just stated, clearly had no interest in the conversation they responded to. I don't see how I could have made it any clearer or how I could have had anymore patience. People shouldn't respond to a conversation that they don't understand or aren't interested in.

[swilton]

20. Thanks Techn0

The viruses mutate faster than other parasites - the pharma industry stands to profit from this, there is no doubt about that.

There is a big movement in Washington DC public schools trying to stop the vaccination of 12-year-old girls with the gardacil (sp) vaccine. Not having daughters, I haven't paid that much attention to the debates but here is a very limited portion of the gist -

The focus is on girls - not boys/men who are equally responsible for the sexual activity
The disease/vaccine haven't been out long enough to totally prove and validate the claims made by the vaccine manufacturers
Finally - Donald Rumsfeld is on the Board of Directors of the pharmaceutical industry that would profit if the DC schools made it manditory for the vaccinations. Due to the effort of public school activists, an opt out provision has been provided for parents who don't want their daughters used as guinea pigs

Pediatricians and doctors are some of the most vocal opponents against this procedure.

[Kalentros]

27. Um....

Know many men who suffer from cervical cancer? If you do I think we should try to match them up with the outbreak of women suffering testicular cancer.

[ProfessorPlum]

41. Do you have a link to the CDC stats? Here are some other numbers

Effectiveness of vaccine

Studies demonstrate that vaccination can be a cost-effective counter-measure to seasonal outbreaks of influenza;<39> but not perfect. A study led by Dr. David K. Shay in February, 2008 reported that

"full immunization against flu provided about a 75 percent effectiveness rate in preventing hospitalizations from influenza complications in the 2005-6 and 2006-7 influenza seasons."<40>

The group most vulnerable to flu, the elderly, is also the least affected by the vaccine, with an average efficacy rate ranging from 40-50% at age 65, and 15-30% past age 70.<41><42><43> There are multiple reasons behind this steep decline in vaccine efficacy, the most common of which are the declining immunological function and frailty associated with advanced age.<44>

In the United States a person aged 50–64 is nearly ten times more likely to die an influenza-associated death than a younger person, and a person over age 65 is over ten times more likely to die an influenza-associated death than the 50–64 age group.<45> Vaccination of those over age 65 reduces influenza-associated death by about 50%.<46><47> However, it is unlikely that the vaccine completely explains the results since elderly people who get vaccinated are probably more healthy and health-conscious than those who do not.<48> Elderly participants randomized to a high-dose group (60 micrograms) had antibody levels 44 to 79 percent higher than did those who received the normal dose of vaccine. Elderly volunteers receiving the higher dose were more likely to achieve protective levels of antibody.<49>

As mortality is also high among infants who contract influenza, the household contacts and caregivers of infants should be vaccinated to reduce the risk of passing an influenza infection to the infant.<50> Data from the years when Japan required annual flu vaccinations for school-aged children indicate that vaccinating children—the group most likely to catch and spread the disease—has a strikingly positive effect on reducing mortality among older people: one life saved for every 420 children who received the flu vaccine.<51> This may be due to herd immunity or to direct causes, such as individual older people not being exposed to influenza. For example, retired grandparents often risk infection by caring for their sick grandchildren in households where the parents can't take time off work or are sick themselves.

In most years (16 of the 19 years before 2007), the flu vaccine strains have been a good match for the circulating strains.<52> In other flu seasons like that of 2007/2008, the match was less useful. But even a mis-matched vaccine can often provide some protection:

...ntibodies made in response to vaccination with one strain of influenza viruses can provide protection against different, but related strains. A less than ideal match may result in reduced vaccine effectiveness against the variant viruses, but it still can provide enough protection to prevent or lessen illness severity and prevent flu-related complications. In addition, it’s important to remember that the influenza vaccine contains three virus strains so the vaccine can also protect against the other two viruses. For these reasons, even during seasons when there is a less than ideal match, CDC continues to recommend influenza vaccination. This is particularly important for people at high risk for serious flu complications and their close contacts.<53>

From wikipedia

[Techn0Girl]

46. Do you have a link to the CDC stats? Here are some other numbers

I can not respond to any of this because:

1. Wikipedia is not a recognized valid source. It is not an encyclopedia. It is not a medical journal. It is not peer reviewed by recognized authorities. Just so you know - Wikipedia is a place where average people (many , if not most without significant education) post articles about various things. Some of the things they say happen to be true. A lot of what is said there is blatantly false.

2. The Wiki article that you quoted cuts and pastes snippets (which may or may not be accurate) from at least half a dozen sources, each of which came from different places saying completely different things.

With that said, I actually recognized one or two of the snippets as having come from a medical journal article that I read yesterday as reference to this thread. The snippet that I recall is

"In most years (16 of the 19 years before 2007), the flu vaccine strains have been a good match for the circulating strains.<52> In other flu seasons like that of 2007/2008, the match was less useful. But even a mis-matched vaccine can often provide some protection:

That particular snippet actually came from an peer reviewed article that was claiming that flu vaccines had an effectiveness of between 16-30some percent at best. The snippet you referenced referred to a correlation between higher rates of vaccine effectiveness versus the correct match in the vaccine for the targeted flu virus. But you would not know that from the snippet because the snippet is only two sentences from the journal article and it is mashed between 6 other similar misquoted snippets.

I can't say this enough - Wikipedia is a resource made and edited by people, most of whom have neitehr the education (or frankly the innate intelligence) to understand what they are reading.

You should refer to the original articles (and read them!) that the Wiki references. That's what the footnote links are for.

[ProfessorPlum]

56. thanks for wasting my time

with no link.

[izquierdista]

18. He knows just enough to be dangerous

It's apparent that he 'believes' in evolution, rather than understand it. Maybe his friend Dawkins can explain viral evolution to him so that he doesn't come off as a complete imbecile.

If there's any motive for chicanery in the vaccine business, it's in making overly attenuated vaccines as (1) there will be less liability for lots of adverse reactions and (2) you can make more money selling a 3 or 4 shot course of vaccine than a one-dose.

[mzmolly]

34. I don't agree with black and white thinking

on the subject, period. However a Flumist vaccine recipient can shed the virus for up to three weeks. I think this is what Maher was alluding to in part? http://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/21212055/detail.html

DENVER -- It now looks like Colorado’s first batch of H1N1 vaccine won’t arrive until Thursday.

That’s when an estimated 54,000 doses of FluMist will be doled out to county health departments.

Those departments, in turn, will deliver the mist to hospitals and clinics which have applied for the vaccine.

But several metro area hospitals said they won’t be taking the FluMist because they don’t want to endanger patients.

[Techn0Girl]

36. I don't agree with black and white thinking

Interesting. I assume that FluMist is that nasal spray vaccine. I didn't know it made you potentially contagious? The CDC is saying that you have up to a 2.4% chance of passing along the virus to anyone that you meet if you choose the FluMist vaccine (but it doesn't say for how long you are contagious).

http://www.cdc.gov/FLU/about/qa/nasalspray.htm

That means that out of 100 people you have contact with each and every day you could infect 2 of them with flu virus after taking the nasal vaccine. That sounds like a WTF moment to me.

So far the virus has , over the past year in the U.S., resulted in less deaths then most ordinary flus. I think the red flags some pundits are waving is a bit overblown

[Hyper_Eye]

39. You only write "chance of passing along the virus" but that isn't specific enough.

The actual quote is this:

The current estimated risk of getting infected with vaccine virus after close contact with a person vaccinated with the nasal-spray flu vaccine is low (0.6%-2.4%).

The emphasis is mine. The bottom line is that data refers to transmittal of the vaccine virus. The vaccine virus is a weakened and altered virus. Getting the vaccine virus through contact with a vaccinated person will result in you getting the same vaccine virus that they have. That would be the one that is inoculating them against the flu. So I would assume that the chances of someone getting flu due to transmittal of vaccine virus due to contact with someone who has been vaccinated is the same as that of the person that got the vaccine. I would think the more likely result would actually be inoculation for the person that received the vaccine virus through the contact made.

The rest of that quote is as follows:

Because the viruses are weakened, infection is unlikely to result in influenza illness symptoms since the vaccine viruses have not been shown to mutate into typical or naturally occurring influenza viruses.

[Techn0Girl]

47. You only write "chance of passing along the virus" but that isn't specific enough.

"Because the viruses are weakened, infection is unlikely to result in influenza illness symptoms since the vaccine viruses have not been shown to mutate into typical or naturally occurring influenza viruses."

Yes , I noticed that as well - two thoughts came to mind when I read this:

1. The article states that the person who receives the nasal vaccine can experience flu symptoms like aches, headaches, etc. But then it goes on to say (as you point out) that people secondarily infected will not have such symptoms. I'm not a doctor so I don't see how this is possible. With my limited knowledge I only only that if you shed virus you shed copies of what you were infected with. So I wonder about the accuracy of the above snippet. My limited knowledge and innate distrustfulness makes me wonder if this isn't some BS marketing from the drug company. Perhaps someone with more medical knowledge can explain how this is possible

2. The original article states that certain people should not receive the nasal vaccine because it is very dangerous to them. This makes me wonder how, if you are a walking transmission mechanism for the inoculation (at a 2% rate give or take) after you receive the nasal vaccine, the how the heck can you be sure that you won't come into contact with someone for whom the virus will be dangerous??

3. Do standard intra-muscular vaccnies have the same transmission rate as this nasal vaccine after inoculation?

Anyhow those were my thoughts.

[Hyper_Eye]

51. Now here is a conversation where we are actually talking about the same thing.

1) I would assume that a person who contracts the virus through contact has the same chances for having side effects as the person who received it. It is simply a duplicated virus. The effects should be the same. The symptoms are not stated to be flu. They are stated to be side effects to the vaccination. The virus has been altered so it cannot cause the flu but it is still a live virus and it will potentially trigger a strong immune response. Many flu-like symptoms are not caused by the flu virus but are actually caused by the immune response to a virus. So these possible side effects are not the flu but your immune system working.

2) That is a good point. I would imagine it is possible this could occur. The rate of occurrence would be the rate of potential transmission (2% or so) combined with the rate of contact with people who should not receive the vaccine virus. So the potential would be very low (much much less than the 2% chance of spreading the virus.)

3) Injected vaccine viruses can't be transmitted. They are not live viruses. They are dead and chopped into pieces. That is why you don't have the same response from an injected vaccine as you could potentially have with the nasal vaccine. A dead virus isn't going to illicit the same response.

[mzmolly]

53. Touching on the first point and second points you made.

According to the Flumist manufacturer (referring to a conversation I had with them long ago) the live virus, if transmitted can lead to complications like pneumonia, which of course is partly what we're all trying to avoid with the vaccine program. Under the circumstances, I don't understand why the live vaccine is being used within the medical community.

[SamuelA]

59. I'm two good flu's from my optimum weight!

I'm two good flu's from my optimum weight!

[hmorehead]

35. Frist may or may not be right about this flu shot

but there are tons of things wrong with an awful lot of immunization. And it doesn't take much research to find out about it. Even the government has a list of defective immunization lots on line and the list is very long. When your infant gets the DPT shot at a few weeks, read the disclaimer that comes with it. When my oldest daughter got it, I read it. And out of the $130.00 I paid for it $100.00 went for the insurance premium AND I had to sign a waiver of reponsibility for the doctor. These are not things that have to happen with "safe" things.

When our children's daycare lady was preginate and there was a bout of Rubella was going around, we had the kids immunized. But that was about all they've been immunized for after my eldes was three. Frankly I see no need for small pox, or colora of whooping cough or polio immunization absent a break out here or if we were to travel somewhere there would be a breakout. After my mother's cancer and during her treatments we were told that if the kids had beeen immunized that they would not have allowed to be around her due to her immune systems being compromised by her treatment.

My grandaughter has minimal immunization and will not be getting flu shots. We do have pedilyte to fight dehydration and to keep her electrolytes up in case she does get sick. We do a lot of handwashing. We pay attention.

It is amazing the amount of treatment in this country that goes in the face of mounting illness that the treatments are meant to stop. Why does a nation that eats an miniscule amount of saturated fats (compared to 50 years ago) have increasing numbers of heart problems? Why are pharmicuticals being advertized on TV?????? We have the best health treatment in the world, right? Disease may not kill us buts the cures are. And the lawyers are advertizing to sue doctors and pharmicutical companies day and night on almost every show. Bill Frist has a vested interest in a medical disipline that looks more and more like quackery every day.

[ProfessorPlum]

42. "absent a break out here" . . . and then it will be too late.

[Techn0Girl]

49. "absent a break out here" . . . and then it will be too late.

The virus already has had a run this past spring, as you may recall. There was a lot of press about it.

Nothing happened. In fact the virus was proven to be less deadly than the standard average flu virus. Less people died of it than would have been expected in an average flu outbreak that happens each year.

Now this summer there suddenly were pundit popping up claiming that the virus could mutate like some Andromeda strain outbreak and potentially kill us all! Or something like that...

And yeah, that could happen. It could also happen that the standard polio virus, which is still around and to which we are all immune, could mutate into something that we are no longer immune to and we'll all be living in iron lungs by 2022 !!

It could happen - it's just nor very LIKELY to happen.

Which leads me to believe that the current swine flu mutation scare is more scare tactics by Pharm companies that need to seel more vaccines to the government.

The facts are that H1N1 has already run it's course this past spring - and nothing happenned.

FYI: I am aware of the 1918 H1N1 outbreak that was preceded by a milder outbreak 6 months before - but these are VERY different times and H1N1 has broken out at least 3 times subsequent to 1918 - each time with more mild results. The fact is that about half the population has some immunity to H1N1 already because they were exposed to it already. I probably have immunity to a degree from my 1977 (or 78?) exposure to it before.

[ProfessorPlum]

55. You seem to be perpetually off topic

[SamuelA]

57. Maher

Maher is a bit slow