As the dollar loses its reserves status, at least half of the world’s $5,385 billion dollar reserves will be sold off and replaced with other currencies (yuan, euro, khaleeji, gold, rand, etc…). The US, with its $71 foreign reserves, will not be able to do anything to counteract this mass exodus from the dollar. With outflows of this magnitude, the dollar’s value will collapse to a fraction of where it is now.
The process of foreign nations extracting themselves from the dollar is not going to be pretty. The likely impacts are:
1) The dollar’s value will plunge as investors see the writing on the wall and jump ship.
2) US credit markets will collapse. As the dollar fall, a mass exodus from credit market will begin. Investors sitting on toxic securities will sell at firesale prices to escape the currency depreciation.
3) The fed’s balance sheet will explode beyond all reason. In response to the mass exodus from credit markets, the fed will buy trillions worth debt in a desperate attempt to hold interest rates down. Unfortunately, the more debt the fed buys, the more quickly the dollar will fall, and the more panicked the credit selloff will become.
4) US interest rates will soar, despite (or because of) the fed’s efforts.
5) Countries around the world will be hurt badly by the dollar’s decline. These countries include:
A) Nations which are heavily dependent on US exports: Japan, Mexico, etc…
B) Nations with large dollar reserves: Japan, China, Gulf oil states, etc…
C) Nations which receive large amount of US foreign aid: Israel, Egypt, etc…
D) Nations which rely on remittances from citizens working in the US: Mexico, India, etc…
E) Nations which use dollars as their official currency: Liberia, Panama, etc…
F) Nations which have large amounts of dollars in circulation: Central and South America (especially Argentina), Eastern Europe, etc…
6) Some nations will see benefits from the dollar’s decline. These countries include:
A) Nations with large gold reserves: EU zone, Switzerland, etc…
B) Nations which owe dollar denominated debt will see that debt wiped out: Iceland, African nations, etc…
C) Nations who stable currencies: EU zone, Switzerland, China, etc…
7) World politics will be greatly altered. There will be considerable anger at the US from nations hurt by dollar’s fall. The US will lose influence to Asia (mainly China).
US retailers will get crushed. As the dollar falls, the cost of imports for retailers will increase, but the American consumer will be unable to afford to these higher prices. Competition between desperate retailers will force them the sell inventory at below cost, creating massive losses. Retailers most heavily dependent on imports (ie: Wal-Mart) will be the first to go under. Eventually as more and more retailers go bankrupt, the few survivors will be able to raise prices enough to cover costs, and the sector will stabilize at a fraction of its current size.
9) American lifestyles will change radically. The end of cheap oil, low interest rates, and deficit spending will mean a lower quality of life and higher taxes.
10) The price of gold and other precious metals will explode.
11) US will experience hyperinflation.
LINK:
http://scot.altermedia.info/globalist-economy/what-happens-if-us-dollar-loses-reserve-status_1583.html