37.7 million US jobs could be outsourced to other countries.

[Elwood P Dowd]

http://tradealert.us/news_item.asp?NID=2669859

Alan Blinder, an economics professor at Princeton, ranked 800 occupations, as listed by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, by how easy or hard it is to offshore the work, either physically or electronically.

"Using that ranking, I estimate that somewhere between 22 percent and 29 percent of all U.S. jobs are or will be potentially offshoreable within a decade or two," wrote Blinder, who was a vice chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the Clinton administration.

"In my view, service-sector offshoring is in its infancy at present," Blinder said.

"It is found that there is little or no correlation between an occupation's 'offshorability' and the skill level of its workers as measured either by educational attainment or wages."

<snip>

http://tradealert.us/news_item.asp?NID=2668928

Nearly 400,000, or 31 percent, of local jobs have the potential to be moved overseas during the next two decades, according to the analysis, based on an index created by Princeton economist and former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Alan Blinder.

Nationally, Blinder estimates that 37.7 million jobs, or 29 percent of the current U.S. work force, could be outsourced to other countries within the next 10 to 20 years.

Blinder's study, released in March, is the most recent – and perhaps most ambitious – attempt to quantify the effects of globalization on American workers. He analyzed more than 800 occupations and placed each on a scale from “highly offshoreable” to “highly unoffshoreable.”

<snip>

A McKinsey & Co. study in 2005 concluded that the United States stands to lose at most 11 percent, or 18.3 million, service jobs to other countries by 2010.

Marney Cox, an economist for the San Diego Association of Governments, largely agrees with Blinder's conclusions and said San Diego County companies and policymakers need to prepare for a changing employment landscape.

“San Diego is more 'offshoreable' than most places,” Cox said. “Our most important jobs – jobs that drive our economy – are exportable.”

<snip>

Some have maxed out all their credit cards
Some are working two jobs and living in cars
Minimum wage won't pay for a roof, won't pay for a drink
If you gotta have proof just try it yourself Mr. CEO
See how far 5.15 an hour will go
Take a part time job at one of your stores
Bet you can't make it here anymore.

From James McMurtry's "We Can't Make It Here"

[Horse with no Name]

1. And yet

people will march in the streets against the low paying jobs the illegal immigrants take while the criminals usher the great jobs out the front door.

[PsN2Wind]

19. Aren't you a bit elitist?

That low-paying job just might be someones livelihood that you are so willing to have an illegal immigrant take from him but not the "great jobs" that support the more elite among us. Someones livelihood is their livelihood and you being unwilling to do it doesn't mean that someone else wouldn't.

[Horse with no Name]

36. Yeah right.

:eyes:
It is not elitist to say that the majority of jobs that illegal immigrants do are low paying jobs--either by design of them being targeted to do these jobs or by the nature that not many Anglos are interested in doing field work. Either way--the jobs are low paying. The anger in this country over that is palpable.
All the while our white collar professional jobs are being outsourced to offshore companies because of loopholes and tax breaks given to these companies which makes it advantageous to outsource it.
Take away the taxbreaks and take away the loopholes for these companies who practice this and you will see jobs return to this country.
Now THAT is something to go to the streets about.

[PsN2Wind]

37. It is extremely elitist

to not give a shit about someone who if they lose their job has to start living in their car or on the street but lament over those that might have to sell the big place and down-size and live off the old 401K until something else comes up.
The field work bit is a bogus argument. If in fact the illegals in this country were all, or even a majority, doing "field work" the farmers wouldn't be pissing and moaning about not having the help necessary to get their crops in. They are instead taking over much of the construction industry and other labor intensive trades. Just because you're too good for that kind of work doesn't mean that a lot of people wouldn't do the work for union scale, as I did for many years.
Yes, you are very elitist!!

[Name removed]

38. Deleted sub-thread

Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[thethinker]

39. Dream On

The idea that illegal immigrants are taking only field jobs is simply not true. Let me give you an example. A few years back new construction homes provided high paying jobs for plumbers, framers, carpenters, tile guys, etc. Now all new construction is built by illegal immigrants. The way the builders get by with it is they subcontract framing to one guy. The one guy goes and picks up a truck load of illegals. The house is built start to finish with illegal immigrants. Have you noticed the cost of new construction homes going down? No, the builder pockets the difference. Where I live all the major builders build their houses this way. Do you think the illegal immigrant gets even half the wage the Americans got? Believe me they don't.

This is only one example.

I also think your attitude is very elitist. It is like you are saying blue collar jobs don't matter. You are awfully generous in giving away someone else's means of employment.

But it doesn't stop with blue collar jobs. The guest worker program is taking many high paying professional jobs also. For instance, nursing. They are importing nurses like crazy. You think they can't hire them here? It isn't about filling a job. It is about filling the job with an employee that will work for 1/4 or less of the standard wage. They are also outsourcing every job they can find in the medical profession, like reading cat scans. Do you want your cat scan read in India when your life might depend on it? This is about greed. Hospitals are very profitable before the games.

They greedy CEOs will not stop until they reduce the wages on every worker in America.

[PsN2Wind]

43. Makes you kinda wonder

if someone else's ox might be getting close to getting gored.
Of course, I'm just bloviating here.
The educated class certainly didn't go to any lengths to protest the export of a large percentage of our manufacturing jobs either. They being more concerned with being able to buy cheap shoes and toys. But if a degreed individual loses their job it's just horrible.

[Horse with no Name]

45. Tag team eh?

Sorry I'm not playing.:)

[CrispyQ]

53. Classifying labor like all other expenses

ignores the fact that labor refers to living, breathing people who suffer when they are treated & regarded no differently than the other commodities. This is what happens when a society values things over people.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

41. Well, let's be honest.

Nobody except some white supremacists is so upset over illegal immigration that they're marching in the streets.

[Ilsa]

2. My husband's employer tried outsourcing, and discovered it

didn't work that well for them. They are in the computer programming industry, finance, and they had too many problems and issues, luckily for us.

[MUAD_DIB]

4. Don't worry. CorpAmurka will find a workaround for that.

[Brigid]

24. Yes, but . . .

by the time most companies figure that out, the damage has already been done. :(

[Ilsa]

42. They were pretty gentle in that they didn't fire anyone. They just didn't

hire anyone here to take those jobs. Now they've fired those overseas employees, and have left those positions empty. The rest of the staff is having to work 50-70 hours a week.

[Bonhomme Richard]

3. Why not?........A rant.

Why not? Seems to me that nobody wants to do their job anymore. I'm in a bad, bad mood and very frustrated.
I design and manufacture stuff (hydraulic filtration items) and I end up working on new designs because that is what my customers need. If I had a buck for every time someone said that something could not be done, well...... It's not that something can't be done, it's that someone is too lazy to do anything but look up a part number. Therefore if the part number doesn't exist then it can't be done. The lack of imagination, the unwillingness to take a little risk, brains devoid of curiosity, and downright laziness is rampant everywhere in our society. It has consequences in every thing we do, whether allowing a moron (and his minions) to bring our country to ruin, rolling over when jobs move overseas, or just not giving a shit about anyone but ourselves. God forbid if we miss american idol. I just don't get it.
I am really beginning to think we are doomed.
I apologize for the venting but I had to do it. I feel better.

[Robbien]

15. People are being asked to take cuts in pay and benefits

but at the same time they are being asked to increase their productivity to make up for staff being downsized.

It doesn't surprise me that service sucks these days.

[Bonobo]

5. There are still 37 million jobs in this country?

[The2ndWheel]

6. Now you're talking crazy

It'll happen quicker than decades from now. You cannot stop progress. For good or bad, it is relentless.

[Vincardog]

18. The corporate race for the bottom in wages is not progress. We can stop it

It starts with us demanding transparent fair elections.
It ends with us electing people who know they work for US not the Parasitic corporations.

[WinkyDink]

21. "Progress" cannot be "bad". So if it IS "bad", it is not "progress".

And it IS BAD. Crippling Americans, when our housing and medical care are costly, when our transportation is mainly and perforce the individual automobile with its attendant costs, IS BAD.

LAWS, however, CAN stop this engine. We have plenty of laws PRO-corporations, so it isn't like we are totally laissez-faire. We can tax; we can insist on U.S.-based oversight (especially for food products); we can give tax breaks to U.S.-based firms.

[snagglepuss]

33. So the march towards increased environmental degradation is progress?

What a relief to know that too is part of the march of progress.:eyes:

[MiniMe]

7. Wonderful, who is going to buy their products?

[Benhurst]

9. Americans will, of course. Not having to work, they will have plenty

of time to cruise the malls and shop, shop, shop.

We are no longer and industrial society, we're a consumer society.

:sarcasm:

[Brigid]

27. I have a better idea.

How about we use that time to start rioting in the streets over this?

[Brigid]

23. Exactly.

Even Henry Ford thought of that.

[moondust]

8. Just don't mention QUALITY.

Because it STINKS. (Based on personal experiences.)

[RedEarth]

10. If you know where to find Binders study I'd like to see it

sounds like it could be very interesting and helpful.

[yankeeinlouisiana]

11. Here it is

http://www.princeton.edu/~ceps/workingpapers/142blinder.pdf

I've just started reading it and I'm scanning for a chart or something that lists the jobs that can be outsourced.

Happy reading!

[RedEarth]

12. Thanks, I appreciate the link

[yankeeinlouisiana]

13. Found the chart!

Page 37

Top Ten Most Likely to be Offshored

Occupation/Rank/Offshorability
Computer Programmer/1/100
Data entry clerks/1/100
Electrical & electronics drafters/3/98
Mechanical Drafters/3/98
Computer & Information Specialists/5/96
Actuaries/5/96
Mathematicians/5/96
Statisticians/5/96
Math & Science occupations (all others)/9/95
Film & Video Editors/9/95

Top Ten Most Likely NOT to be Offshored

Postal Service/285/25
Advetising Sales Agents/285/25
Photographers/285/25
Music Director & Composers/285/25
Engineers & Inspectors/285/25
Health & Safety Engineers/285/25
Architects, Except landscape & Naval/285/25
Business Operations Specialists/285/25
Watch Repairers/281/26
Camera & photographic equipment repairers/281/26
Mail clerks & mail machine operators, except postal/281/26

[mainegreen]

14. Some of those 'highly offshorable' industries are experiencing shortages in labor offshore as well

so you can take that list with a healthy grain of salt.

[Blackhatjack]

16. When enough people work at below poverty wages and cannot pay their bills...

We will see people in the streets. We just have not got there yet --but it is coming, unless the next Democratic President begins to turn things around.

[mnhtnbb]

17. My son works for an international messaging and security software company

on their help desk. This company has offices all over the world, and some really big clients. He told me their sales staff really pushes the fact that the company
provides help in the native language of the client. Germans get help in German, French get help in French, English-speaking clients get help, not from English-speaking Indians, but from the U.S.,the U.K., Australia. It's a big selling point for them.

When my son handles e-mail help requests in Spanish, he clears his response
with a native speaker before sending it.

[WinkyDink]

20. I guess that's why I'm seeing lots of road-work. Can't out-source the highways.

[Brigid]

22. If you haven't already . . .

see "Roger and Me" by Michael Moore. That film is nearly twenty years old, but could be made today. Eventually this whole country is going to become one big Flint, MI.

[Octafish]

25. The Real Cost of Offshoring -- Business Week says US data spun to hide job loss impact

We might not even know it -- Business Week reports Government Lies about True Outsourcing Picture...

The Real Cost Of Offshoring

U.S. data show that moving jobs overseas hasn't hurt the economy. Here's why those stats are wrong

By Michael Mandel
JUNE 18, 2007
Business Week
COVER STORY

Whenever critics of globalization complain about the loss of American jobs to low-cost countries such as China and India, supporters point to the powerful performance of the U.S. economy. And with good reason. Despite the latest slow quarter, official statistics show that America's economic output has grown at a solid 3.3% annual rate since 2003, a period when imports from low-cost countries have soared. Similarly, domestic manufacturing output has expanded at a decent pace. On the face of it, offshoring doesn't seem to be having much of an effect at all.

But new evidence suggests that shifting production overseas has inflicted worse damage on the U.S. economy than the numbers show. BusinessWeek has learned of a gaping flaw in the way statistics treat offshoring, with serious economic and political implications. Top government statisticians now acknowledge that the problem exists, and say it could prove to be significant.

The short explanation is that the growth of domestic manufacturing has been substantially overstated in recent years. That means productivity gains and overall economic growth have been overstated as well. And that raises questions about U.S. competitiveness and "helps explain why wage growth for most American workers has been weak," says Susan N. Houseman, an economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research who identifies the distorting effects of offshoring in a soon-to-be-published paper.

FLY IN THE OINTMENT

The underlying problem is located in an obscure statistic: the import price data published monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Because of it, many of the cost cuts and product innovations being made overseas by global companies and foreign suppliers aren't being counted properly. And that spells trouble because, surprisingly, the government uses the erroneous import price data directly and indirectly as part of its calculation for many other major economic statistics, including productivity, the output of the manufacturing sector, and real gross domestic product (GDP), which is supposed to be the inflation-adjusted value of all the goods and services produced inside the U.S. (For a detailed explanation of how import price data are calculated and why the methodology is suspect, see page 34.)

The result? BusinessWeek's analysis of the import price data reveals offshoring to low-cost countries is in fact creating "phantom GDP"--reported gains in GDP that don't correspond to any actual domestic production. The only question is the magnitude of the disconnect. "There's something real here, but we don't know how much," says J. Steven Landefeld, director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which puts together the GDP figures. Adds Matthew J. Slaughter, an economist at the Amos Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College who until last February was on President George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers: "There are potentially big implications. I worry about how pervasive this is."

By BusinessWeek's admittedly rough estimate, offshoring may have created about $66 billion in phantom GDP gains since 2003 (page 31). That would lower real GDP today by about half of 1%, which is substantial but not huge. But put another way, $66 billion would wipe out as much as 40% of the gains in manufacturing output over the same period.

It's important to emphasize the tenuousness of this calculation. In particular, it required BusinessWeek to make assumptions about the size of the cost savings from offshoring, information the government doesn't even collect.

GETTING WORSE

As a result, the actual size of phantom GDP could be a lot larger, or perhaps smaller. This estimate mainly focuses on the shift of manufacturing overseas. But phantom GDP can be created by the introduction of innovative new imported products or by the offshoring of research and development, design, and services as well--and there aren't enough data in those areas to take a stab at a calculation. "As these countries move up the value chain, the problem becomes worse and worse," says Jerry A. Hausman, a top economist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "You've put your finger on a real problem."

CONTINUED...

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_25/b4039001.htm?chan=top+news_top+news+index_businessweek+exclusives

Long, but worth reading.

[Brigid]

26. That may be,

but the reality of the cost of offshoring can't be hidden forever. It's becoming more and more obvious every day.

[StarryNite]

28. But * says outsourcing is good for Merica..

Where is this going to end? I'm really trying to not buy imported stuff but sometimes it can't be avoided. And it's becoming more and more difficult to find Made in America labels. Even the companies that once used to stand up and be proud to be American are now selling products with Chinese labels. Harley Davidson, for crying out loud sells all kinds of things with their logo but a made in China label. They should be ashamed!

[Brigid]

29. Tell me about it.

When was the last time you could find a product that didn't say "Made in China?"

[MiniMe]

32. * said there were WMD's in Iraq too. Oops

[Morgana LaFey]

30. More helpful would've been a list of what ISN'T "offshoreable"

But, I guess that's simply all the OTHER jobs.

[The Backlash Cometh]

31. You mean, we still have jobs to outsource?

[ikojo]

34. If it can be done online and takes a computer

then it can be done in Eastern Europe, India, Jamaica (this is where United Healthcare has many customer service reps) or the Phillipines (a local hospital imports nurses from the Phillipines).

Ani DeFranco put it best..."take away our playstations and we are but a third world nation." 60+ years ago much of the US was third world.

[HughBeaumont]

35. But does the CEO class care? NAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!

Really, the only people who seem to support this Reaganite/Welchian practice is the extremely wealthy, and those who think they aren't peasants.

I mean, let's face it. It's not like Marc Andreesen, Greg Mankiw, David Dreier, Carly Fiorina, Mike DeWine, Jack Welch, the BFEE, Elaine Chao, every idiot at the Heritage and Cato institutes, Thomas Friedmann, etc, etc, are ever going to be in danger of losing a job. They're never in danger of starving, forced to train their replacement for severance pay, being hounded by bill collectors, having their utilities shut off, have their life stopped dead in it's tracks, forced to scrap up money and time to train for a new career (never mind that they may have loved what they did previously, or the fact that the career they're training for likely isn't location-safe), be constantly in fear that this may be your last day on the job . . .

Of course they support it. They're on the firING side of the desk, not the FIRED side. America's victimizing ownership class never take it personally when they fire someone or hundreds of people; it's something far worse. It's that they simply don't care and think not one iota about it at all. All they give three shits about is pleasing the fat white rich old men who own their companies. There's no concept of empathy in them. They're all cold-hearted bastards who drained their souls for greed and wouldn't veer from that numbness if one of their relatives died right in front of them.

Who the hell is from the middle class and can say "job offshoring is a GOOD thing" with a straight face? What's even MORE unbelieveable is that there are supposed DEMOCRATS thinking this way????!? If you were cattle, would you have a shit-eating grin all the way to the slaughterhouse? Offshoring jobs destroys corporate morale, makes rich men insanely richer, expands nothing but the rich-poor gap, fattens CEO pockets (Chainsaw Carly proved this in every company she ran), ruins communities and small businesses and more to the point, further allows imperial corporations to yet again thumb their nose at their economic, societal and cultural responsibility (and make no mistake, they do have some). This is why it's good for the economy . . . because THEY ARE the economy and we're on the outside looking in.

"Free trade" is an ownership class LIE. You want to impress me, Dems (because Repukes will go down the bunker with the Failure Fuhrer on everything)? Let's take a cue from Sherrod Brown and talk FAIR trade. FAIR trade would include labor protections and safety regulations for foreign workers, something that doesn't exist under the unbridled capitalist model now. FAIR trade would include corporate regulations of some sort and eliminate corporate personhood. FAIR trade would have to include a better plan for re-entering displaced workers into equivalent wages at equivalent careers. Maybe FAIR trade should also include provisos that no worker should have to fend for their damned selves when they're axed through no fault or choice of their own, but because they simply weren't cheap enough.

All free trade does is plunge the middle classes of ALL nations to the bottom of the well, especially ours. Indian wages are already rising, leaving corporations to look for even cheaper nations. Even with the wage increase, it isn't like they live in astounding conditions. Their infrastructure and pollution problems still exist, as does the overcrowding and outdated utilities.

A strong economy is supposed to accommodate EVERYBODY at a liveable wage, not just the heavily degreed and privileged.

Free trade is a moldy bill of Reaganite goods that benefits the CAPITAL of the country, not the labor. Retraining is a crock when you don't even know what you're re-training for, nor do you know that the career you choose isn't going to follow it's predecessor offshore or be subject to the wage-ravaging phenomenon spawned from . .. er. . . "competitiveness".

Just remember this, for those who want to defend this very detrimental and Republican business tactic.

[Pavulon]

40. 10% of the entire population seems high

When you look at offshoring functions there is profit. Sure you could offshore all kinds of things but at a loss in the end.

I would dispute that number.

[Nikia]

44. Some of it depends upon what else is office shored

For example, it lists agriculture and food science technicians as an offshoreable job. If you aren't offshoring the production though, it is pretty much impossible for a person to perform their job from another country. Most companies even prefer to use relatively local outside labs for testing that cannot be done in house, in order for quick turn around time without having to pay extra for air express.

[LostInAnomie]

46. My Brother in Law (an engineer) used to laugh at all the blue collar workers that...

... either lost their job to, or couldn't compete with illegal immigrants. He would say, "Sucks to be them. They should have went to school or found a better job. Whatever lowers prices is good for me."

Then whenever offshoring started becoming an issue he said, "Whatever lowers costs. They should have found a job that couldn't be outsourced like I did."

Last year, his company started laying off engineers. Apparently, his company found a firm in India that could do the work for much cheaper than the in-house staff. As of now he still has a job but he's shitting bricks every time there is a gap between projects.

It's amazing how certain people either don't give a shit or say "Fuck 'em, I got mine" until they are slapped in the face with it. The only time globalism is going to become a big issue is when enough people like my brother in law finally have to pay the piper.

[HughBeaumont]

47. You know, because EVERYONE is either meant for college or a psychic.

I REALLY hate people with attitudes like this. We're ALL paying the price for lower costs. Our cities have paid for them in the form of useless hulks of closed factories where people used to work.

[LostInAnomie]

50. We don't talk politics anymore.

I can't tell you how many times arguments have led to me calling him a social Darwinist and him calling me a communist.

He is a great example of the "Gods and Clods" mentality of the Republican party. To them, anyone that is working class is automatically a "clod" and deserves the hardship that the world thrusts on them.

[HughBeaumont]

52. I know a few of those.

They don't think they're part of the peasantry either. ;)

[windy252]

54. I think I know one of those too n/t

[ComerPerro]

48. There's gotta be a way to blame this on illegal immigrants. There just has to

[devilgrrl]

49. Too bad people in finance don't get outsourced... maybe they'll STFU about how great all those...

"tax cuts" have been. :sarcasm:

I'm aware that didn't make much sense but I'm saying it anyway.

[newportdadde]

51. Right now the business areas are still protecting their own.. IT though(the nerds) f'em.

In the past 3 years we have gone from just a few offshore to nearly all of our development being offshore/onshore. And I can't tell you how much crap has gone wrong.

The business however has kept its doors shut protecting their own. IT which of course is the source of all their problems not an issue to let them go.

In the end its going to hurt us more then we can imagine.. we aren't replacing talent, we aren't bringing in anyone new to learn the sytems.. its a joke.