Charlie Cook: The Ripple Effect (2008 Campaigns So Far)

[WillyT]

<snip>

No question, Thompson is hot. Whether he can keep this momentum up and the expectations in check once he actually enters the race is a good question, but his rise is having a devastating impact on Giuliani and McCain. To be sure, Thompson and his campaign have a lot of organizational spadework ahead of them, building an infrastructure that other campaigns built months go. But, catching up organizationally is a lot easier when your polls are headed up than when they are headed south. The Thompson folks have a terrific opportunity here; let's see if they can capitalize on it.

While former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's upward movement in the polls isn't nearly as great as Thompson's, it is steady. He raised an extraordinary amount of money in the first quarter and he has, along with McCain, the only full-scale campaign infrastructure on the GOP side.

Arguably only the campaigns of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., McCain and Romney have world-class political teams. While Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and Giuliani each have some top-notch, "any campaign would love to have them" people in key places, they don't have the number or depth of first-rate talent on board that the first three do.

Romney raised a ton of money in the first quarter, but spent a big chunk of it on television in early states. He has now seen that turn into advantages in Iowa and New Hampshire that are leaving the Giuliani and McCain campaigns with their mouths agape. Thompson needs to use his momentum to build what Romney already has.

While former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has gotten favorable notices on the trail, he doesn't have the campaign behind him to capitalize on it and none of the other third-tier candidates appear even close to catching on. If I were a betting man, my money for the GOP nod would be on either Romney or Thompson.

For Democrats, Clinton's lead is holding, while Obama's once impressive upward momentum appears to have stalled over the last couple of months. The only strong growth on the Democratic side is for former Vice President Al Gore, who unquestionably would love to have the Democratic nomination but few believe he'll fight for it.

If the nomination were offered to him on a silver platter, he would probably snatch it in a nanosecond, but the Democratic contest, unlike the GOP fight, has no vacuum. Indeed, it is a bit oversubscribed, and Gore would have to fight for the Democratic nod. It looks extremely unlikely that he will be headed to Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina anytime soon to fight for it.

While not sexy, the Clinton campaign seems to be the proverbial "three or four yards and a cloud of dust." They are organizationally strong, featuring a political focus and discipline that matches that of the candidate.

<snip>

Link: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19318492/

I dunno... I'm still digesting this.

:shrug:

[babylonsister]

1. McCain? That proves how unsound this might be; I heard he's not

doing well 'at all'. Maybe on HArdball?

[Cha]

2. Is Charlie Cook ever

wrong..this far out?

[WillyT]

4. I Dunno... He's Been Pretty Accurate As Far As I Can Recall...

:shrug:

[TacticalPeek]

6. No one reads the numbers better - not that I've seen.

If he does not know, he does not act like he does. If he says something, it's sure worth considering, although no one is 100%.

[KoKo]

3. Media would love for Gore to come in so they can kick him around...

but there's always "Hillary Fatigue" that might set in if she seems the heir apparant to soon.

Hard to know how it will play out at this point, though.

[Tom Rinaldo]

5. Sounds pretty much on the money to me

Cook is much more astute than your average pundit, he knows how to talk in nuance, the way reality often is, without being evasive or meaninglessly vague. For example when he says this about still attracting good staff...

"But, catching up organizationally is a lot easier when your polls are headed up than when they are headed south"

...Cook isn't flat out asserting that it is too late now to put a good campaign staff together, instead he points out how much more difficult that is to pull off after a campaign develops negative momentum.

And my fear for those who are counting on Gore has always been that he would rather not re-enter politics if he has to wade through a hard and nasty primary campaign first before he ever gains the nomination. I have little real doubt that Gore could be drafted to run, but he might need a top down as well as a bottom up draft to recruit him before he would.

[WillyT]

7. Morning Kick !!!

:kick: