On the reality in Iraq versus all the spin about progress being pushed by the Bushies

[ProSense]

U.S. troop buildup felt in Iraq hotspots

PATROL BASE MURRAY, Iraq (AP) — From this base in insurgent country south of Baghdad, there are no doubts that the U.S. decision to pour 30,000 additional troops into the fight has had an effect.

Before the 3rd Infantry Division's 2nd Brigade arrived in mid-June, the area around Patrol Base Murray was known as the Triangle of Death — a safe haven for al-Qaeda in Iraq to ambush Shiites, launch mortar and rocket attacks into the Green Zone and rig car bombs, suicide vests and other weapons for use in the capital.

Today, commanders point to the sharp drop in Baghdad attacks — down in August to a quarter of what they had been, according to the top commander Gen. David Petraeus — as evidence of their effectiveness.

"Our job was to stop the flow of accelerants to Baghdad," Lt. Col. Ken Adgie, commander of the 1st Battalion, 30th Infantry Regiment, said Monday, referring to bombs, bullets and fighters that accelerate the conflict.

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Spin: Baghdad is safer!

Reality (civilian casualties in Baghdad):

Feb 869
Mar 741
Apr 839
May 1039
Jun 781
Jul 869
Aug 603

Above reported at icasualties.org with the following disclaimer: This is not a complete list, nor can we verify these totals. This is simply a compilation of deaths reported by news agencies. Actual totals for Iraqi deaths are much higher than the numbers recorded on this site.

Tuesday, September 04, 2007

On How al-Anbar isn't that Safe
and on How its "Calm" is Artificially Produced

Bush made a surprise visit to Al-Anbar Province on Monday, as part of his propaganda drive to get Americans to think we should stay in Iraq because "progress" is being made.

The debate over al-Anbar province is driven by the Bushies' desire to find any 'good news' to grasp at. Indeed, from 2003 forward, their criterion for objective reporting on Iraq was that it gave the 'good news.' When there obviously wasn't any good news, they started ignoring Iraq, as at Fox (Republican TV) Cable News.

<...>

Is al-Anbar Province really paradise, as Bush suggested?

Al-Anbar residents killed 20 US troops in July. The total US fatalities in July were 79 according to icasualties.org, and some of those were presumably from accidents, etc. So al-Anbar, despite being reduced to the stone age, managed to kill a fourth or more of all US troops killed in combat in July. Al-Anbar is roughly 1/24 of Iraq by population. So it killed six times more US troops than we would have expected based on its proportion of the Iraqi population.

That's what the Bushies are celebrating, that the deadly al-Anbar has been wrestled down to only killing a fourth of the US troops killed in a month. It used to be more.

In mid-July, There were about 100 violent attacks in a single week in al-Anbar. That's a bright spot. That's progress. Since the year before, there were 400 violent attacks in that same period.

Well, yes, that's a relative improvement. But a hundred violent attacks in a week? That's being touted as good news to be ecstatic over? There were probably on the order of 1100 attacks that week in all of Iraq. So al-Anbar generated nearly one-tenth of all attacks. But it is only 1/24 of Iraq by population, so it is more than twice as dangerous with regard to the number of attacks than you would expect from its small population.

<...>

One of the ways "calm" has been produced in the city is to simply forbid vehicular traffic. Since May, if you wanted to get somewhere in Fallujah, you have had to walk. So when the National Review tells us things are suddenly miraculously "calm" in al-Anbar, this is being produced artificially. Things would be calm in most hot spots if you could ban all forms of locomotion save walking.

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Fewer, but more deadly attacks.

Violence Metrics:

...............................................June/July 2006....June/July 2007....Change
Iraqi Military and Police Killed..............349.....................429..........Up 23%
Multiple Fatality Bombings..................110.......................82......Down 25%
# Killed in Mult. Fatality Bombings........885..................1,053.........Up 19%
Iraqi Civilians Killed.........................6,739..................5,300......Hard to say1
(All violent causes)
U.S. Troop Fatalities..........................104....................187...........Up 80%
U.S. Troops Wounded........................983..................1,423...........Up 45%
Size of Insurgency.......................20,000+...........~70,0002........Up ~250%
Attacks on Oil and Gas Pipelines..............8...................143...........Up 75%

Infrastructure Metrics:

...............................................June/July 2006....June/July 2007....Change

Diesel Fuel Available.....................26.7 Ml...............20.7 Ml..........Down 22%
Kerosene Available.......................7.08 Ml.................6.3 Ml..........Down 11%
Gasoline Available........................29.4 Ml...............22.2 Ml...........Down 24%
LPG Available..........................4,936 tons............4,932 tons........Down 0.1%
Electricity Generated................8,800 Mwatts........8,420 Mwatts....Down 4%
Hours Electricity Per Day...............11.7.................10.14..............Down ~14%

(posted here)

From Washington Monthly:



U.S. troop fatalities August: 83

‘This is General Petraeus’s baby’

Posted September 4th, 2007 at 11:25 am

About once a week, U.S. politicians, generals, and troops visit the Dora market in Iraq. The bustling commerce, in a relatively safe area, is proof that the surge is beginning to have an effect. After all, if there were no progress, a stroll through the market would be impossible.

There’s only one problem: it’s a scam. Sudarsan Raghavan exposes this charade as “a Potemkin village.” Staff Sgt. Josh Campbell called the market “General Petraeus’s baby,” not because the general is proud of its success, but because Dora is a showcase necessary to pull off the broader masquerade — if VIPs think the market is indicative of broader success, then they may give the administration more time and money to pursue a strategy that doesn’t work.

The U.S. military hands out $2,500 grants to shop owners to open or improve their businesses. The military has fixed windows and doors and even helped rebuild shops that had burned down, soldiers and others said.

“We helped them a lot. We gave them money, security, even the locks on their doors,” said a 36-year-old Iraqi interpreter at the outpost whom U.S. soldiers call Jimmy for security reasons. He asked that his real name not be used. “Everything we gave them. That’s why the violence has stopped. That’s why they cooperate with us.”

Some shopkeepers said they would not do business in the market without U.S. support. “The Americans are giving money, so they’re opening up stores,” said Falah Hassan Fadhil, 27, who sells cosmetics.

1st Lt. Jose Molina, who is in charge of monitoring and disbursing the grant money, said the U.S. military includes barely operating stores in its tally. “Although they sell dust, they are open for business,” said Molina, 35, from Dallas. “They intend to sell goods or they may just have a handful of goods. But they are still counted.”

Sgt. Campbell told Raghavan the market shouldn’t be considered an emblem of the surge’s success “Personally, I think it’s a false representation,” Campbell said. “But what can I say? I’m just doing my job and don’t ask questions.”

The closer one looks at the charade, the worse it appears.

<...>

Remember, according to the Bush administration (and Lieberman, McCain, & Co.), this market is a crown jewel. This market had 850 shops before we invaded, now it has 349, including many that only exist because the U.S. military props the stores up. The market is barely open, because customers and shop owners fear their own country’s security forces might kill them. I’d call this many things, but “success” isn’t one of them.

Kevin Drum asks the pertinent question:

With enough time, money, and manpower you can secure any single neighborhood. No argument there. But how many of these showcase neighborhoods are there? Visitors could come to Iraq by the planeload and all report back that they were individually impressed with what they saw, but how meaningful is this if it turns out they all saw the same few places?

Not meaningful at all, actually.

Undercutting Bush’s claims of success in Anbar.

Pattern Cited in Killings of Civilians by U.S.

Iraq insurgent group names minister


Edited to add this great chart on met, partially met and not met benchmarks according to the GAO report, via Think Progress:



h/t TayTay

[ProSense]

1. More on Bush's disaster

here and here.

[ProSense]

2. Claim of drop in avg. number of civilians killed by sectarian violence excludes car bombings

From the LA Times:

<...>

Civilian toll Determining accurate civilian death tolls is virtually impossible in Iraq, where the government has no single source for reporting deaths related to the war. Whichever numbers one uses, however, it is clear that thousands of Iraqis continue to be slain or driven from their homes.

According to U.S. military figures, an average of 1,000 Iraqis have died each month since March in sectarian violence. That compares with about 1,200 a month at the start of the security plan, the military said in an e-mailed response to queries. This does not include deaths from car bombings, which the military said have numbered more than 2,600 this year.

Figures from Iraqi government ministries point to far higher casualty numbers and show that this year, an average of 1,724 civilians a month have died in sectarian attacks, bombings and other war-related violence.

In February, the civilian death toll was 1,646. Last month, it was 1,773, according to numbers from officials in the ministries of Defense, Interior and Health, who cite morgue, hospital and police reports. It was the second straight month that casualties have increased since the security plan began.

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(emphasis added)

[ProSense]

3. U.S. general: Next few months crucial

U.S. general: Next few months crucial

By ROBERT H. REID, Associated Press Writer 17 minutes ago

BAGHDAD - The No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq said Tuesday that the next three to four months will be crucial in determining whether the United States can start to withdraw troops from Iraq without sacrificing security gains since the troop buildup began early this year.

Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno said the number of attacks in August fell to their lowest level in more than a year, although he gave no figures. Odierno insisted that overall violence was declining — a sign that the buildup ordered by President Bush was working.

"I think the next three to four months are critical," Odierno told reporters. "I think that if we can continue to do what we are doing, we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with less troops."

Bush himself raised the possibility of a reduction in the 160,000-strong U.S. force during his surprise visit Monday to al-Asad Air Base in Anbar province, where Sunni Arab sheiks have been turning against al-Qaida in Iraq.

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Translation:

"I think the next three to four months are critical," Odierno told reporters. "I think that if we can continue (spinning failure as success), we'll get to such a level where we think we can do it with (5,000) less troops (which will buy us more time to keep spinning)."