The 2008 GOP Iowa caucus results:

[saltpoint]

Sam Brownback places first, riding the same demographic in a crowded field Pat Robertson rode in a second-place finish there against Bob Dole. Dole placed first with 37%; Robertson a strong second at 25%.

Chuck Hagel places second. Iraq has not improved and may be even worse, and Hagel's conservative enough for GOP caucus voters yet right on Iraq -- just the combo for a strong second place finish.

Mitt Romney places third.

McCain places fourth.

Giuliani fifth.

The rest of the vote divided among Huckabee, Tancredo, Hunter, and so on, probably in that order, and all in low single digits.

This is a much more crowded field than the Dole / Robertson outcome in '96. The percentages will be bunched up, smushed together, and inconclusive.

[Mojambo]

1. How would Newt fit into that should he declare?

I'd suspect he'd fit in front of Romney.

[saltpoint]

2. Not a bad guess at all. I think he's smarter than Romney, too.

If Newt jumps in, he could be a factor.

[Mojambo]

5. It is a wide open field

It almost feels like the Democratic field in 04, only without a Dean frontrunning.

I wonder if Gingrich doesn't capture that kind of position eventually.

[saltpoint]

11. Can't be ruled out. The comparison for me is about the numbers, and

how the Republicans actually split their vote in that caucus.

I'm very partisan, and feel we had a great field in Iowa in 04, but the Republicans are faced with a gaggle of nutcases. Hagel is the only one among them who can feed himself. Newt can probably feed himself too, but he eats styrofoam.

The rest of the GOP field is a macabre, frightening, unwelcoming line-up, with extremely high yuck factors.

[Mojambo]

15. Oh I agree. Their path to a nomination is going to be very entertaining to watch. n/t

[Unbowed]

46. Newt is smarter than Romney.

After all, he can read and write.

[saltpoint]

47. A belated welcome to DU, Unbowed. Thanks for throwing in to this

thread.

I agree -- I think Newt is an intelligent man. It discourages me as a citizen when bright people -- Newt Gingrich, David Brooks, etc. -- give their brains over to the conservative agenda.

Gingrich is crafty. It could be that he's waiting for Romney, Rudy, and McCain to beat the crap out of each other, and then ride in as a consensus, "fresh" entry into the race.

But wow, does he have some serious baggage.

[saltpoint]

48. A belated welcome to DU, Unbowed. I think you've hit the nail

on the head -- Newt is smarter than Romney. Newt is intelligent and crafty.

But it discourages me to see intelligent people like Gingrich and David Brooks, for example, working for the conservative agenda.

I half expect Gingrich to wait for Romney, Rudy, and McCain to beat the crap out of each other in the early primaries, and then ride in on a white horse to "save" the party as a consensus candidate.

I don't think it will work -- it's such a long shot -- but it could.

Hope to see you around on these boards. Again, welcome.

[Unbowed]

49. Thank you. The welcome is...well, welcome.

I'm usually on the boards sporadically, so it's nice to know somebody has noticed my ramblings.

As much as it embarrasses me to admit this, I've actually read some of Newt's fiction and he is rather entertaining.

Crafty is the right word though. He's sold his true intellect for a lower cause, sad to say.

[saltpoint]

51. You got two replies, Unbowed, because when I typed the first one and

sent it I got a bug message.

So I did another one.

Anyway, I appreciated your post very much and feel it's a considerable contribution to this thread.

[Joanne98]

4. No way. Newt can't win GE!

[Mojambo]

6. I don't think so either, but he could play in the primaries. n/t

[saltpoint]

9. I think he'd have difficulty, yes, but Iowa GOP voters in that caucus

chose Dole unenthusiastically, and gave Robertson a quarter of their votes. It turned out to be a signal that a Democratic governor of Arkansas was going to win re-election.

Pat Buchanan defeated Dole a week or so later in New Hampshire. Very narrowly, but still...

I think the Republicans will find themselves in the same boat this coming election.

[Redneck Socialist]

26. In 1988 Bush Sr. beat Dole in NH

In '88 Bush Sr. beat Dole, and Robertson was 'bout dead last in NH. Bush came in 3rd behind Robertson in IA.

If you are talking about '96, Buchanan beat Dole in NH and came in second to him in Iowa. I don't recall Robertson even running, but I could be wrong about that.

[saltpoint]

28. The last line of my post should have been 88, not 96; I have the

breakdown from the Des Moines REGISTER on the candidates' percentages:

1988 GOP Iowa Caucus

Bob Dole 37.4 %
Pat Robertson 24.6
George Bush 18.6
Jack Kemp 11.1

1996 GOP Iowa Caucus

Bob Dole 26 %
Pat Buchanan 23
Lamar Alexander 17.6
Steve Forbes 10.1
Phil Gramm 9.3
Alan Keyes 7.4
Dick Lugar 3.7

http://desmoinesregister.com/extras/politics/caucus2004/pastresults.html

[Redneck Socialist]

31. Yeah, my reply wasn't all that clearly written

I was just referring to NH, where you had Robertson beating Dole. It was Bush Sr in '88 and Buchanan in '96 that beat Dole.

Nit picky, sorry. The main point of your post, that Iowa republicans could go for a religo-con is correct.

[saltpoint]

32. Hi, Redneck Socialist. Great on-screen name, by the way.

Yes. The Republican field is a kind of freak show, moreso this year than usual, and their usual's already very frightening.

I'm worried that someone like Brownback will rise to influence yet at the same time I'd love to see the GOP vote split in half in 2008.

We need 4-8 years of a Democratic president appointing Supreme Court Justices, just for starters.

[Redneck Socialist]

35. Yeah, I have no read on the Republicans this year at all.

I don't see the media front runners, Guiliani (sp?) and McCain doing well with the base, but they do have the money to build a nationwide organization so who knows. I could see Brownback doing well but I don't know that he can build that sort of nationwide organization that you need to be successful these days. The time of a "dark horse, come from behind, do surprisingly well in NH and go on to win" candidate are long gone I'm afraid.

We'll be decades digging out of the rubble of the bush mis-administration, so four to eight years is nothing more than a good start in my book.

[saltpoint]

38. Have to agree about that digging process. It won't be done in one

president's term or terms.

But I do like the Democrats' chances. There is a great but sad perfect storm abrew and it is going to wash away more Senate and House seats for the Republicans, I believe.

Iraq will get worse, not better. That's the sad part, because I don't want my party to advance on the blood of soldiers and Iraqi citizens, but on its own virtues and the merits of its candidates.

Bush's surge shoves the resolution stage right into the caucus/primary season, when he's not on the ballot, but everyone else in his party is.

[Joanne98]

3. Brownback is a darkhorse...He could be real trouble...

If he tells black voters that he will get their children out of prison. The way I see it, is that the gop has to either take CA or black voters to win... Ruda and McCain play well in CA but not well enough (iraq).. That leaves getting 50% of the black vote. Brownback just spent a night in prison in Kansas. The Christian right is on the prison issue.If you think about it .. It might just work. The ticket I fear... Romney/Brownback.

[Ignacio Upton]

7. You really think Brownback will do well among black voters?

How?

[Mojambo]

8. I don't think Brownback hides his conservative extremism well enough.

To fool enough people to become President.

[emulatorloo]

25. His batshit crazyness is just below the surface -- won't take much to get him

to reveal his true colors.

I hope we are right about this, because President Brownback would surely be the end of the USA

[Katherine Brengle]

10. Romney's a twit.

As a resident of the great state of Massachusetts, I would be truly shocked if this smackmonkey won the Republican nomination.

[Mojambo]

12. Shocked? Not me.

The bar has been sufficiently lowered.

[saltpoint]

13. Romney/Brownback would be harder to defeat than some combination

of the others.

They're slick and they're slipperty and they're slimey.

And possibly formidable, too.

[Olney Blue]

14. OK, Crusoe. I am going to bookmark this thread!

The good news is: whoever wins, they don't have a chance in the general.

What a sorry collection.....

[saltpoint]

17. Hi, Olney Blue. But hey, look -- if George Pataki jumps back in the race,

ALL BETS ARE OFF!

You're right. It's a sorry pack of candidates. And Iraq is not going to make it any easier for the Republicans up and down the ticket, either.

A perfect electoral college storm is abrew.

[Olney Blue]

21. What about Condi?

[saltpoint]

23. You didn't hear it from me, Olney Blue, but I have it on reliable

sources that she has privately inked a deal to replace Vanna White on WHEEL OF FORTUNE.

This is her true calling.

_______

She could run. She might even be Bush's nod to replace Uncle Dick when Fitz is finally done slapping Cheney around at the Plame trial for all I know.

But I'm just not seeing our sweet Condi in hip waders slopping through pig farms for the Iowa caucus.

[KharmaTrain]

16. The Astroturfing For Gnewt Is On...

Usually I have a great deal for Charlie Cook. This morning on C-SPAN I heard say that Gingrich is the sleeper in a field of true sleepers...or should I say yawners.

The "true believers" don't like any of the "Big 3" and there's no lower tier candidate that will get much ink or TV time, thus making it hard for them to raise the cash they need to survive to next year's primary. Gnewt is biding his time and waiting as the right wing base fracture further...so he can play "savior". I've seen more and more reports lately about how "Gingrich is the only real "conservative"" also how he's the one who "led the Repugnicans to the majority and many see him as the one to do it again." Just like the media ignores the majority of us who want the Iraq invasion ended right now, they prop up this POS despite having popularity ratings akin to darth cheney.

[saltpoint]

18. I can see ol' Newt playing the waiting game.

What would be interesting is if Al Gore were playing the same game and announced the day after Newt does.

Newt's lone shot at Savior status would be impressively upstaged by the tall Tennessean.

[KharmaTrain]

20. Gnewt Has To Play The Waiting Game

The moment he announces...or even does the exploratory thing, there's gonna be a blog swarm about his past and this will include attacks from within the right wing tent...those already bought off by other candidates. He's sitting at the AEI in Washington where he quietly can collect the cash and stay out of the limelight. With so many bodies already in this mess, why waste the money now...wait to see whose still standing later this year. The base is so flacid that there could be a void for Newtie to exploit...or even open the door for a Perot-like third party bid.

In many ways, I see Gore playing the same waiting game, but for other reasons. First, the reason many are jumping in so early is to get some/any promotion...name recognition that they may be able to parlay into an endorsement that they can parlay into cash. Gore doesn't need to worry about that. He's smart for watching right now...to see how the corporate media frames the election. I could see him waiting til next Xmas or longer if he wanted to get in...and keeping his intentions quiet as long as possible enables him to position himself for the best possible shot without having to endure the corporate media meat grinder.

[saltpoint]

22. That scenario you've given on Gingrich sounds exactly right.

He's a smart guy, although his intelligence is given over to the dark side, and he's vulnerable in a high-profile national campaign. I think he's basically unstable and possibly dangerous. He's hard to like.

Gore has contributed a lot since 2000 already, so he doesn't owe us anything else. But he likely feels he has more to give, and after all, he won the first time.

This is going to be a real barnburner of an election, isn't it?

[saltpoint]

19. And then Hagel goes on to win in New Hampshire a week later.

Making him the technical frontrunner. Not enough to knock out other well-funded competitors, but more than enough to tarnish their glow.

Huckabee, Tancredo, Hunter, and Thompson are all out by midnight Eastern time the Tuesday of the New Hampshire primary.

[Leilani]

24. I'm always amused at Dems predicting Repub actions

Hagel is one of the MOST disliked among the grass roots.

He's considered a poor man's McCain.

Just because Dems like his position on Iraq, doesn't mean Republicans like him.

Also, the caucuses depend heavily on organization. From what I know, he has done NO organization anywhere.

[Ignacio Upton]

27. Brownback and Huckabee are most likely to excite the base

...Although there have been some rumblings over at FR about how Brownback is "soft" on immigration.

[saltpoint]

34. Good point re the FR response to Brownback. A lot of the

blood-dripping-off-their-teeth nutbags at FR won't be satisfied unless Brownback agrees to actually bomb Mexico.

They're hard to please over there at FR.

And may their hateful anger split the GOP vote in 2008. That would be just fine with me.

[saltpoint]

33. But in a crowded field of weak contenders, many of them splitting the

hell out of the mainstream Iowa conservative caucus vote, Hagel can emerge as a real force. It won't take him long to get an organization up and running if he decides to run.

As well, there'd be debates. Who in that Republican field bests Hagel on points and presentation? No one.

Brownback first, then Hagel.

[Leilani]

39. No on Hagel

He's even more "Open Borders" than Brownback."

Hagel is a true follower of "Free Trade" & infinite visas & open borders.

The fate of American workers has never entered his capitalist mind.

Republican middle classers are hurting financially as much as Dems.

[saltpoint]

40. Head to head, I agree. A crowded field tilts the scales.

Consider Pat Robertson's startling 2nd place finish in Iowa in 1988.

Consider the field that year for the Republicans.

Hagel is many times the public figure Robertson is.

I definitely would not count him out, should he choose to run.

I don't identify the term "middle class" as a GOP stress point, except to the extent that they're trying to wipe it out.

From a very perceptive and well-established political analyst:
_ _ _ _

"On the question of Hagel's presidential prospects, the Senator has been saying that he'll make a statement soon. There is also some intriguing news that he might be considering a third party run. An Iowa poll already has him one point below Mitt Romney, the establishment conservative candidate.

With his military background, red-state persona, and rock-ribbed conservatism, Hagel's antiwar stance is all the more credible and palatable. Good old David Boaz, over at the Cato Institute's blog, says all too many conservatives are still in thrall to big-government Bushism:

"But I'll predict that over, say, the next 12 months leading up to the Iowa caucuses, Hagel is going to look increasingly wise and prescient to Republican voters. And as they come to discover that he's a commonsense Midwestern conservative who opposed many of the Bush administration's worst ideas, he's going to look more attractive."
_ _ _ _

I have the link for that excerpt (and the full article) and will PM it to you if you're interested.

[Leilani]

41. The comparison between Hagel & Robertson

is soup to nuts. (With Robertson as nuts)

The fundies were feeling their oats in Iowa in 1988. They swarmed out of their caves to support one of their own. Today their movement has weakened, due to the Schiavo fiasco, Delay's downfall, & disappointment in their saviour Bush.

Hagel comes from the corporate wing, & they're not faring to well either. The stock market is roaring & the income gap widens.

The Republican coalition is coming apart; they were always uncomfortable allies. Reagan brought them together, but there's no Reagan on the horizon. I know Reagan is not liked at DU, but he would never have been as dumb as to start a war in the Middle East.

[saltpoint]

43. I'm encouraged by your assessment of the Republican party's

factions, and have seen evidence to support it.

Actually I imagine most Democrats on local and state levels like the idea of the GOP's factions ripping each other's flesh.

That party really does need to sit itself down and do some serious thinking. I'm from a time when Republican Congressman Pete McCloskey rose to oppose the Viet Nam war -- something I just don't see Dick Lugar doing. And I gave up on Mitch McConnell a long time ago.

Also I love your description of Pat Robertson.

[DonkeyInChinaShop]

29. You are taking your feelings, extreme Republicans feelings and putting them together

Hagel is liked by Democrats, not Republicans. Hagel is not conservative enough for many people. He has no money and little grassroot support. Explain how he comes in second please. Huckabee will do much better than what you are predicting. He is the governor of Arkansas, a state not tottally unlike Iowa. In addition, you don't even list Tommy Thompson, a popular Wisconsin governor who has served nationally. Wisconsin neighbors Iowa and that will help him much more than Tancredo or Hunter.

[saltpoint]

30. Nope. The elves have spoken. Tommie Thompson will be rejected

by voters in the GOP caucus owing to the fact that he's a Neanderthal. He's running for a vice presidential nod, gambling that one of the conservative nutcase frontrunners will win and decide he's an asset for Wisconsin's swingstate votes more than Pawlenty is for Minnesota's.

Thompson's an ass, always has been, and will continue to be throughout the 2008 campaign season.

The elves have delineated the glaring weaknesses in the frontrunning GOP candidacies. As a consequence, they have spoken of a Brownback victory, with Senator Hagel hitting all the right notes for the same largely small-town, rural constituency in Iowa as he has in neighboring Nebraska. That is, Republicans.

[DonkeyInChinaShop]

36. BAHAHAHAHA

If the Republicans are planning on a Packers fan helping to carry Minnesota, they are more messed up than I thought. I guess the elves only speak to you eh? No website for the elves? No link?

[saltpoint]

37. Pawlenty is increasingly discussed as a possible veep pick for the GOP.

One citation, from the STAR-TRIBUNE: http://www.startribune.com/587/story/366871.html


Minnesota has gone blue, yes, but not by a whole hell of a lot, and could be considered purple.

Norm Coleman is sitting in Paul Wellstone's chair.

Minnesota's electoral votes and Wisconsin's electoral votes are arguably pivotal for either major party's strategy for the forseeable future.

Neither Thompson nor Pawlenty will be at the top of the ticket.

And yes. The elves only speak to me.

[Leilani]

42. As Veep for the R's

watch Haley Barbour.

The party loves him, he's their best fundraiser ever, & he's the epitome of the "Good Ole Boy."

[saltpoint]

44. Agree. He's dangerous because his rolodex is fat and functional.

From our side, he's a difficult man to like. Or respect.

But I agree -- he's on any GOP presidential nominee's shortlist for very serious consideration.

[Czolgosz]

45. Huckabee takes too much of Brownback's vote for him to win, but Brownback will do better than

expected (probably second or third if he can keep Huckabee from bleeding off too much of his constituency). I think Brownback has a decent chance of pulling a Goldwater and stealing the nomination from his more electable and better funded opponents, but I think he will surge after Iowa and New Hampshire once Huckabee is forced out of the race.

Giuliani is polling very high right now (at the cost of McCain and Romney). Hagel getting into the race will further split the overlapping constituencies which feed the Giuliani, McCain, Romney vote. I agree that Giuliani will collapse but I expect it will be after Iowa and New Hampshire and so he will do better than fifth in Iowa. The longer Giuliani stays high in the polls, the lower McCain sinks and since McCain is the most electable Repub, that's good.

The Repub base is not happy with the idea of choosing among Hagel, Giuliani, McCain, or Romney so there will be a strong opposition candidate who will arise (p.s., Google "Rudy McRomney" to get a flavor of the right-wing distaste for the Repub primary front-runners). I don't think it will be Newt because won't want to raise the money to win (but may enter the race to affect the scope of the debate) and so his campaign (if any) will not be a real threat. I don't think it will be Huckabee because Brownback seems to have beaten Huckabee to the hearts of the fundamentalists (and there is talk that Huckabee is only running to get his name in the VP mix). I don't think it will be Tancredo or Hunter because they are mainly one issue candidates (Tancredo is obsessed with immigration and Hunter brings and anti-NAFTA, protectionist spin to what is otherwise typical Repub nonsense) and both are also the subject of much talk that they are both only running for VP.

In sum, there are three scenarios:

SCENARIO ONE:

Brownback can win if he unites fundamentalists with other self-misidentified "conservatives" and the Rudy McRomney vote remains split.

SCENARIO TWO:

Romney has a chance of breaking out of the Rudy McRomney pack if he can convince fundamentalists that Mormonism isn't a cult and if he can convince them that flip-flopping on abortion and gay marriage are virtues instead of proof that he has no fundamental values.

SCENARIO THREE:

Unless scenario one or two develops, it is a race between McCain and Hagel. Hagel is waiting too long to get into the race, and McCain has a good fund-raising and ground-work team in place already while Hagel dithers. Between Hagel and McCain, McCain wins, but there is a real question whether McCain can beat Hagel (and Giuliani and Romney) soon enough to stop a Brownback insurgency.


Among these three likely scenarios, I consider three the most likely, one only slightly less likely, and two unlikely but still possible.

[saltpoint]

50. Hi, Czolgosz. Thank you for that thoughtful series of observations.

All of them plausible, too.

'Have heard the grumblings and whinings of freeper-types who are displeased with the menu for 2008.

That's an indication that something's seriously wrong -- and while it's true their candidates are a miserable and macabre pack of ghouls and nutbags, the problem goes deeper.

I could see what you mean about Huckabee running for vice president. I don't know what kind of money he's raised, only that he's made a handful of visits to Iowa. I don't see him catapulting into the first tier there, or in New Hampshire, and agree with you that he fades fairly quickly.

Which is Brownback's opening, if he hasn't risen already. I don't know who all's on Brownback's donor list, except the Domino's Pizza multi-millionaire, who is said to be a right-wing kook of the first order. If Brownback is drawing that kind of money, he could conceivably slip past Giuliani first (who will have difficulty translating himself to Iowa conservatives), and then Romney (who can flip-flop with the best of them).

Oh, well, who knows? I'm hoping the GOP Iowa battlefield will look like the wrath of God the morning after their caucus, and that no one candidate emerges as strong enough to be "inevitable." The weaker we can keep them the better.