Obama and the black vote

[skipos]

*** I DO LIKE HIM, BUT I HAVE NOT MADE A DESCISION ON WETHER OBAMA WILL BE MY FIRST CHOICE YET ***
*** I AM NOT ADVOCATING THAT WE CHOOSE OUR NOMINEE BASED ON HIS "ELECTABILITY" ***

Obama is smart enough to realize that he can't take the black vote for granted. However, it might be reasonable to assume that, if he was the nominee, he would inspire more blacks to get out and vote. You could probably make the argument that he would inspire closet KKK types to get out and vote too. Or maybe 45% of voters would stay home like they did for Bush vs. Kerry and Nixon vs. McGovern and his race won't matter at all.

My question is, how do you think Obama's race would effect, or not effect, his electoral prospects? Would he win states that other Dem candidates couldn't? Would he lose states that are usually Dem lockups?

Consider this:


Mississippi has the highest percentage of blacks. 90% of MS blacks voted for Kerry. 85% of MS whites voted for Bush. Bush won the state by a 20% margin.

In 1992 even though Bill Clinton beat GHW Bush by about 6% nationally, Bush won MS by almost 10%.