Please help me refute the points in this global warming LTTE!

[bbernardini]

The "gentleman" who wrote this is a regular in the Editorial section. His singular goal in life seems to be to shoot down anybody who thinks global warming might be a problem. Of course, he always fails to mention that he works for Lyondell, a self-described "leading global producer of chemicals, fuels and plastics." One of Lyondell's subsidies is Equistar, "one of the largest producers of ethylene, propylene and polyethylene in North America and a leading producer of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, high value-added specialty polymers and polymeric powder." Both companies have had pollution complaints, particularly in Texas. According to one report, "Lyondell’s Channelview plant is the nation’s No. 1 polluter of 1,3-Butadiene."

Anyway, here's the bulk of the letter, which conveniently fit into four paragraphs:

First and foremost, the scientific community has not come to an “overwhelming majority decision that human actions are affecting our climate in a negative manner.” A 2003 German survey of 530 climate scientists from 27 countries found that although 82 percent believe that global warming is happening, 56 percent believed it was mostly due to human activity, and only 35 percent believed that models can accurately predict future climate conditions (Heartland Institute Web site). This view mirrors that of the American people polled in 2006 by the Pew Trust: 70 percent believe global warming is happening, 41 percent believe it is due to human causes and 19 percent think it is a high-priority issue.

Over 19,000 American scientists, including this one, are signatories of the global warming petition which states “There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the Earth’s climate. Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth.”

Last week, following an international conference in New York City featuring hundreds of scientists who say global warming is not a crisis, a new survey of 51,000 professional engineers, geologists, and geophysicists in Alberta, Canada, found only 26 percent believe global warming is caused by human activity, and 68 percent disagree with the popular statement that “the debate on the scientific causes of recent climate change is settled.”
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That’s a lot of very knowledgeable people who disagree with the notion that the “global warming debate is over.” If immediate action needs to be taken, it is that Mr. Long and the minority who share his beliefs stop telling everyone else to shut up and start listening.

[Delphinus]

1. Why not xpost this

(cross post) over in the Environment/Energy forum? I think you'll find some really good resources there.

[Birthmark]

2. Here's a little help.

1. That's a 2003 survey. In 2003, I was just acknowledging that climate change was real. A LOT has been learned in recent years.

2. The LTTE seems to believe that 81%=70%; 56%=41%; and that models and "high priority issue" mean the same thing. The writer is trying to make oranples (mixing apples and oranges.)

3. The 19,000 scientists nonsense is just that. It's nonsense. Only a small percentage (and probably VERY small) of those 19,000 have degrees in the relevant fields. Fewer still have advanced degrees. So their scientific opinion is no better than your or mine.

4. The "international conference" was a joke:
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2008/01/what-if-you-held-a-conference-and-no-real-scientists-came/

5. The 51,000 survey is new to me. An off-hand guess is that they went way heavy on the engineers and undergrad degrees since that is the usual method of denialists.

6. The debate is settled within science. It is a very rare peer-reviewed paper that is published in reputable scientific journals that disputes GW at all. Those few that dispute its causes (predominantly human activity) and do manage to get published are quickly crushed for good scientific reasons. So, within science the debate is about as over as it can be in a rapidly growing field.

I hope that this is some help to you.

[gratuitous]

5. Good points

And notice what this guy does in this sentence alone: "A 2003 German survey of 530 climate scientists from 27 countries found that although 82 percent believe that global warming is happening, 56 percent believed it was mostly due to human activity, and only 35 percent believed that models can accurately predict future climate conditions (Heartland Institute Web site)."

He starts with a 2003 German survey (nothing more recent in the last five years?) that totally contradicts his unsupported assertion that an overwhelming majority of scientists are convinced that global warming is happening. Where I come from, 82% is damn near consensus. Who are the 18% holdouts, and do they have any ulterior motives (like a paycheck) in denying the plain evidence before their very eyes? When a man's paycheck depends on his not seeing something, it's a good bet he won't see it.

Then, he switches gears to his 56% figure, without revealing whether this results from the same five year old survey. If it is, has that number changed at all since 2003? The writer conveniently doesn't say. And by the end of his sentence, he drops in the complete non sequitur 35% figure about models and their perceived accuracy. I don't know where the writer went to school, but I'm confident that for that dishonest sentence alone any good professor would have flunked his paper. Perhaps he's fooled himself, but he shouldn't fool anyone with two ounces of common sense.

[bbernardini]

3. Kick!

[niceypoo]

4. Republicans are the party of mass suicide

Science vs Ideology

[bbernardini]

6. Just found this interesting tidbit about his employer...

"Researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst have identified Lyondell as the 53rd-largest corporate producer of air pollution in the United States, with roughly 8 million pounds of toxic chemicals released annually into the air."

[0007]

7. About every six weeks or so the 'Midland Reporter" a newspaper

in MIdland Texas receives the same kind of letter to the editor. I've always wondered about it and the person who sent it.

[bbernardini]

8. Kick!

[bbernardini]

9. I know this has nothing to do with Spitzer...

...but let's keep this up top, eh? :)

[bbernardini]

10. The problem with responding to this...

...is trying to fit everything in to a publishable length. Perhaps I'll have some of you edit it for me. :)