The key for Obama is to be up 5+ entering the Democratic Convention.

[Drunken Irishman]

If he has a 5-point lead on the eve of the Democratic Convention, he'll probably leave Denver up 10+ points, which would really give him some momentum heading into the final lap of the campaign. In 2004, Kerry stalled in the polls leading up to the convention, trailing Bush 48-46 prior to the convention and then leading him 50-44 after it all wrapped up. That was a small bump for Kerry and it only put him up 6 nationally on Bush. That lead then evaporated after the Republican Convention.

Kerry saw a fairly pathetic post-convention bump, as they generally are good for nearly 10-points nationally. But so did Bush, in fact, as he actually had a smaller bounce than Kerry. But since Kerry trailed leading into the Democratic Convention and his bounce was small, Bush ate away at that lead prior to the September Republican Convention and all it took was a 2-point bounce to regain Bush the lead. That lead would be grown through September and early October before the debates, which got Kerry back into the game.

With Obama, I expect a bigger bump nationally after the convention. It's going to be such a historical moment for this country and since his acceptance speech will be on the 45th anniversary of King's I Have a Dream Speech and the convention will take place during the 100th birthday of LBJ, there is going to be a buzz like nothing we have ever seen before. So if Obama even only has a five point lead heading into the convention, I predict when it's over, his lead is 10-15 points nationally, maybe even bigger, depending on the size of his pre-convention numbers. That will probably sustain him through the GOP Convention, because I don't see how McCain can get a 15, or even 10-point bump, from his speech.

That means Obama could be up 10 or so points during the final two months of the campaign. That would basically leave the debates for McCain to claw back into it and McCain is NOT a good debater. Kerry was, which is why he made it a game in the final month of the campaign, but McCain could struggle and that might be enough to slam the door on the general.

[DS1]

1. And Kerry's bump came WITH all the "Viet-F*cking-NAM" routine

which I'm sure McCain will do, but still looked a bit silly.

[LiberalFighter]

2. Don't forget that the GOP Convention is 1 week later

[Blarch]

3. All things to everyone.

[Drunken Irishman]

4. Wouldn't that be awesome?

:)

[virtualobserver]

5. Obama's lead will be much larger than that by the convention

Between now and then, he will dismantle McCain .