Can someone explain the Georgian situation in 5 paragraphs? Not understanding here.

[elehhhhna]

And did "We" encourage Georgia to act up?

Is this Israel/Lebanon redux in that we encouraged them to act up then acted outraged when the other side beat the crap out of them?

[Cleita]

1. Thom Hartmann gave a good explanation of it

and our need for oil as related to the crisis in Georgia this morning on his radio program. Maybe you can find a pod cast of it someplace. He really does boil it down brilliantly and succinctly.

[Aqaba]

2. Here's something for ya.

I wrote this on a thread over at Booman Tribune

------------------------

I've been watching this since late Thursday night when the shelling of S. Ossetia began.
Its very clear to me that:


1. The US has been building up the Georgian military for several years. This is the front porch of Russia proper.

2. Russia has been watching this. Prior to this acute conflict, a buildup of Russian heavy armor occurred on the Georgian border, concommitant with the US/Israeli training program known as 'Immediate Response'. Hell, Condi Rice was there one month prior to this conflict (July 10).

3. Russia is highly pissed at the US incursions on its former territories, the highlight of which is our intention to put our 'missile shield' in the Czech Republic.

4. Georgia's actions on S. Ossetia were absolutely reprehensible. There was a cease-fire agreement in place for Aug. 8, which Georgia broke by heavy shelling of Tshinvali. The reports I've seen about this shelling are 2000 dead, the city destroyed. These were not military targets, they were civilian targets. It was this action that gave Russia the 'moral' upperhand to invade, the excuse was that something like 90% of the S. Ossetians had been issued Russian passports.

5. This conflict was ignited (in a bed of dry timbers with flames all around) by the Georgian president, Saakashvili. Here is what boggles me. The US has been helping to arm and train the Georgian military to the teeth for years. Rice was there one month ago. How in the hell does the Georgian president, launch this suicidal gambit without consulting with Washington? On the opening fucking day of the Olympics? To me this kind of incompetence has Cheney written all over it. The past three days I've seen that bastard Saakashvili begging for western help - US, Europe, Nato - help that would pretty much be the start of WWIII (or IV if you prefer James Woolsey's numeration).

6. The BP pipeline, aka the BTC (Baku-Tblisi-Ceylon) pipeline. If Russia wanted to fuck it up, fuck it up Russia would. Reports of it being bombed yet missed are just a clue to Russia's game plan. They are saying, we can fuck this shit up bad if we want to, but we are not.

7. What Russia is doing is precisely this: They are stopping the US MIC right in its tracks in Georgia. They are saying, NO MORE. They were given a plausible excuse, a plausible excuse they have been waiting for, and they are going to defeat all the ideas the neocons ever had for Georgia, even if this means forcible and destructive annexation of the Georgian province.

Booman, I've read your site for a long time. I generally agree with your assessments, but I think you are absolutely wrong when you state that "The events that precipitated this invasion are still in dispute". Absolutely false. The events that precipated this was the US MIC surrounding Russia, and Russia seeing an easy opportunity to roll some of this back with a huge FU to the US neocons and anyone else acquiescing to the US imperial demands in the former Soviet Union. The bear is flexing its muscle, something we haven't seen in awhile.

One more note. If Russia successfully annexes/subjugates Georgia to its liking, it makes it that much closer to a direct land link to Iran, leaving only Azerbaijan in the path. Personally, I think this is a big deal.

One other note. All parties involved, the US, Georgia, Russia and some would say Israel, are guilty of this tragedy, minus the civilians. I do place more blame on the US, because we shouldn't have been there in the first place.

Bleh. I'd donate one of my nuts if the global MIC could be dismantled.

[nickyt]

3. Thanks so much for this, aqaba - a keeper - n/t

[Warpy]

5. The sequence of events I discovered is a little different

1. In 1992, South Ossetia, a province that's 75% ethnic Russian, secedes from Georgia after years of heavy handed tactics the residents describe as attempted ethnic cleansing. After many skirmishes, Russian peacekeepers arrive.

2. The US, following its carefully crafted foreign policy of seeing every world problem as a nail, supplies Georgia with a hammer, plenty of military gear to fight Muslims on its border, mostly Shi'a Muslims they persist in labeling Al Qaeda.

3. Saakashvili is elected on his promise to bring the errant child South Ossetia back into the Georgian family. More skirmishes break out.

4. On the eve of the opening of the Olympics, he decides to make good on his promise and begins shelling South Ossetia. Casualties are high. They send troops in to fight Russian peacekeepers and expel them.

5. Russia takes a very dim view of this and begins bombing Georgia.

I can't imagine the Georgians acting without at least informing Washington, but I could be very wrong about that. National pride can be colossally stupid and the recapture of a province that doesn't want to be any part of it is stupid.

The prize, of course, is not the hostile population they didn't want to begin with, it's a length of pipeline and a depot.

[Aqaba]

9. You are correct...

I think all those points you made are correct. There were skirmishes and there were Russian peacekeepers legally stationed in S. Ossetia because of those skirmishes and yes Saashkavili did run on that platform. Also true that the initial build-up of Georgia was under the pretense of 'fighting Al-Qaeda'. When I posted my sequence I was refuting that the cause of the Russian invasion was unclear. It is very unclear if you watch the US media, but not if you were on the internet getting global information as this acute event unfolded.

I'm not sure about the pipeline just yet. I don't know if Russia really desires control over it, its unclear to me exactly what their strategy is in regards to the pipeline. If they want it, they will take it by annexing Georgia and nationalizing it.

[muriel_volestrangler]

15. "ethnic Russian" isn't quite right, I think

Ossetians are their own ethnicity (the language is Indo-Iranian, so not that close to Russian) - but most of them live north of the Caucasus Mountains, in North Ossetia, which has been part of Russia for a long time. South Ossetia was under varying degrees of control by Georgia before Russia took control of it all - when it said that South Ossetia was indeed part of Georgia. Since Georgia was in the USRR until it broke up in 1991, to say "heavy handed tactics" approaching "attempted ethnic cleansing" had been going on for "years" before 1992 is going too far. South Ossetia pretty much tried to become independent the moment it could; but the Soviet Union (eg people like Putin) weren't doing ethnic cleansing there first.

[Warpy]

22. No, their complaint was against the Georgians

The Russians were welcomed.

[bemildred]

6. Well said. nt

[AuntPatsy]

7. After reading your post I wonder how far cheney will go to finish what

he undoubtably begun....

[Aqaba]

10. I don't know that Cheney started this...

... the only point I was trying to float was that it reeked of his incompetence and poor judgement.

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

13. Amazingly insightful post.

Thank you! :hi:

The power players are feeling emblazoned.

Everyone should feel more than mere concern but THINK without panic.

[baby_mouse]

14. Well summarised

I concur with the other poster.

[Rhiannon12866]

4. Well, I've spent time in Soviet Georgia, and I don't get it either.

George Bush* has messed up a lot of times, but he had nothing to do with this. I loved Tbilisi, still wear a necklace I bought there, and what's going on there now breaks my heart. But this isn't Russia, remember, but a totally separate country, Stalin's home country, and they have serious problems. When I was there, it was part of the USSR, and, despite maybe being flamed, they were much better off, IMO. I wasn't scared there, but now I would be. But the people there are just like you and me, just want peace and a better life for their kids.:-)

I speak to my friend's third grade class about Russia, and that's what I tell them, that's all that they want, despite the guy who threw a grenade at Bush* in Tbilisi, LOL, and most of the posts on the thread I posted about that on LBN got deleted. What's happening there now is tragic. The people there are decent and have to be frightened. But there are revolutionaries there and Georgia has become an Al-Quiada stronghold. And that is our fault. If we'd fought in Afghanistan, as we started to, this wouldn't have happened. My heart just breaks for the Georgian people, met a grandfather there, who I took pix of, with his small grandson, who have to be terrified...;(

[elehhhhna]

8. grenade or pinecone? did that ever get resolved?

[Rhiannon12866]

12. What exactly happened was that the grenade didn't go off.

And the posts that got deleted on my thread were ones offering to help the guy, LOL.

The thing that you have to understand about the people of Georgia is that they're Arabs, not Russians, but very decent people. I'm Polish, by birth, and my mother just hates Russians, for obvious reasons. But the Georgians and the Russians, as I tell my friend's kids, are just like us. That's what I learned in Georgia and Russia.

Everybody is the same, wherever you go. They just want a better life for their children, as we all do. Nothing is different. And I'm scared for the people in Georgia, just now. They've been through far too much...:-(

[sicksicksick_N_tired]

11. 5 words: kickback from US oil domination.

Helpful?
:shrug:

[IndianaGreen]

16. Mikhail Gorbachev: Georgia leaders to blame!

A Path to Peace in the Caucasus

By Mikhail Gorbachev
Tuesday, August 12, 2008; Page A13

Through all these years, Russia has continued to recognize Georgia's territorial integrity. Clearly, the only way to solve the South Ossetian problem on that basis is through peaceful means. Indeed, in a civilized world, there is no other way.

The Georgian leadership flouted this key principle.

What happened on the night of Aug. 7 is beyond comprehension. The Georgian military attacked the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali with multiple rocket launchers designed to devastate large areas. Russia had to respond. To accuse it of aggression against "small, defenseless Georgia" is not just hypocritical but shows a lack of humanity.

Mounting a military assault against innocents was a reckless decision whose tragic consequences, for thousands of people of different nationalities, are now clear. The Georgian leadership could do this only with the perceived support and encouragement of a much more powerful force. Georgian armed forces were trained by hundreds of U.S. instructors, and its sophisticated military equipment was bought in a number of countries. This, coupled with the promise of NATO membership, emboldened Georgian leaders into thinking that they could get away with a "blitzkrieg" in South Ossetia.

In other words, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili was expecting unconditional support from the West, and the West had given him reason to think he would have it. Now that the Georgian military assault has been routed, both the Georgian government and its supporters should rethink their position.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/11/AR2008081101372.html?hpid=opinionsbox1

[elehhhhna]

17. WHY did Georgia attack, though? Call me dense.

[IndianaGreen]

18. They probably thought they could get away with it!

They struck on Thursday, just as peace talks were being conducted.

Gorbachev adds some background:

The roots of this tragedy lie in the decision of Georgia's separatist leaders in 1991 to abolish South Ossetian autonomy. This turned out to be a time bomb for Georgia's territorial integrity. Each time successive Georgian leaders tried to impose their will by force -- both in South Ossetia and in Abkhazia, where the issues of autonomy are similar -- it only made the situation worse. New wounds aggravated old injuries.

[Aqaba]

19. That remains to be seen... but here are some clues

1. The Georgian president, Saashkavili ran his election on a platform of annexing those separatists states (Abkhazia, S. Ossetia and the other one in south Georgia whose name escapes me atm).
2. Feeling emboldened by the training and arms that the US and other western countries had given them, they gambled.
3. Georgia entirely misjudged two things - both Russia's response and the perceived support of the West (US, NATO, Europe).

It still boggles me though. I cannot fathom Georgia attacking without the greenlight from the US, especially considering the past month of training exercises, a visit from Rice etc. It very well could be that Saashkavili is primetime, world-class idiot.

[Rhiannon12866]

21. What you need to know is that Georgia is an enemy of Russia, always has been.

What I was told in Soviet Georgia is that they still consider Stalin to be a hero, and there are statues of him everywhere, because he killed so many Russians. That's what I was told. Sad, but that's the way they think there...;(

[Rhiannon12866]

23. It's because they are enemies. The Georgians hate the Russians and vice versa.

Josef Stalin was Georgian and he's a hero there, because he managed to kill so many Russians...:-(

[Rhiannon12866]

20. Mikhail Gorbachev was the best leader that Russia ever had. I was there during his tenure.

The man worked very hard to get progressive reforms instituted, but Reagan was in office, and people were afraid of him, since he wouldn't back down, which got the hard-liners in Russia to hold forth, and we lost, as did Gorbachev. I was there, then, and Jimmy Carter, my IMO, with his grain embargo, managed to bring down the USSR. But things aren't terribly good there, now... And it breaks my heart. The Russian people just want peace, despite their government. I met many of them, and they are as scared as we are... ;(