Potential Florida Storm Problems

[OmahaBlueDog]

I don't want to be an alarmist, but I'd like to point out a potential issue that may arise from Tropical Storm Fay. If current projections hold (and they RARELY do), Fay will hit Key West as a Cat 1 or 2, and travel up and hit somewhere between Naples and Tampa (kind of like Hurricane Charley a few years ago).

In Florida, homeowners policies are written with a windstorm deductible; this is generally 2-5% of whatever your home is valued on the policy. If your home is valued at $300,000, then you'll go out of pocket for $6-15K before your insurance kicks in.

The last major Florida hit was Wilma. I mention this because Wilma hit right as the current housing downturn was starting. When Wilma hit South Florida in 2005, many homes had damage, and a lot of people had to get loans to cover damage not covered by insurance. At that time, this really wasn't a problem, because home prices had been steadily rising, and many people had equity to borrow against at reasonable interest rates.

The potential issue that I see is this: if you bought a home between 2003 and 2006, there's a really good chance your home has a market value of less than the purchase price. If you have storm damage, you'll have no home equity to borrow against to cover the 2-5% deductible. One hopes that federal disaster loans will be available, but given this administration's track record, one never knows.

[magellan]

1. We're lucky, $500 deductible hurricane insurance

But...we live in a mobile home. It's been depreciating since they glued the last piece of plastic into it.

[Lorien]

2. Not another Charley I hope

I looked right up through the eye of that one. :scared:

Neighborhood after Charley:

[trumad]

3. I lost 3 Oaks at my home in Oviedo...

Charley kicked some serious ass.

[JeanGrey]

4. Who is protecting a Cat 1 or 2? Everything I've read said

tropical storm.

[OmahaBlueDog]

5. I've read conflicting reports. The current official track agrees w/ you, but......

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/sfl-hurricane-fay,0,6225324.story

[Baclava]

6. Not according to the experts

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1027&tstamp=200808

Comparing Fay to Hurricane Charley

Residents of Southwest Florida are nervously watching Fay as it approaches Cuba, recalling an August day four years ago when Hurricane Charley crossed Cuba at a similar location. Charley went on to become one of the most destructive hurricanes in history, wreaking $15 billion in damage after roaring ashore near Punta Gorda, Florida, as a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds. Charley put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of rapid intensification just before landfall. Could the same thing happen with Fay? After all, the sea surface temperatures, total ocean heat content, and wind shear are similar for the two storms. And, Fay has consistently lived up to its knickname of "The Joker", with its unpredictable behavior.

Well, Fay is no Charley. By the time Charley crossed Cuba, it was already a well-developed Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Fay will be lucky to be a minimal Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds when it crosses Cuba. Charley's crossing of Cuba knocked its winds down by 10 mph, and we can expect a similar or greater loss of strength when Fay crosses Cuba, since it is a less organized storm than Charley was. This would make Fay a tropical storm with 65 mph winds as it moves past Key West towards Southwest Florida. It's a pretty tall order to ask a tropical storm that has not yet developed an organized eyewall to put on a major intensification burst to major hurricane status in just one day. Southwest Florida is not going to see a repeat of the Hurricane Charley experience. I give Fay just a 10% chance of making Category 3 status, and that would most likely occur if it avoids a Southwest Florida landfall, and is able to spend an extra day over water and hit the Florida Panhandle or middle Gulf Coast near Alabama. There is also a 10% chance Fay could make major hurricane status if it crosses Florida and re-organizes south of South Carolina later this week.