ALERT: NEW ORLEANS AND NORTH GULF REGION

[Aviation Pro]

For all those who reside in the North Gulf region, start monitoring Hurricane Gustav. Current track guidance at 120 hours shows the following:

GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)

GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)

This is close to the Katrina track with the highest probability 12(15) 120 NM to the west of the Katrina's path. In addition, wind probabilities are showing rapid intensification to a major hurricane at 120 hours (Cat 3 - 5). Here is the wind chart:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144112.shtml?table#contents

Finally, the current five-day track shows that Gustav will avoid the mountainous area of Cuba and instead go through the wet sand area on the western edge of the island. This is nearly exactly how Katrina strengthened when it went through the Everglades. Here is the map:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144112.shtml?5day#contents

Go to the National Hurricane Center's web site at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov for the latest observations, forecasts and analysis.

[BridgeTheGap]

1. Yep. Gustav could be a REALLY bad one...n.t

[valerief]

2. I wonder if the Blackboots are getting ready to imprison the city. Again. nt

[BridgeTheGap]

9. They're still there. NYT ran an article on it a few days ago...The NG

is the only group capable of "keeping the peace" in certain areas of NOLA.

[valerief]

10. Wow. I meant Blackwater. I feel for the NG. nt

[Aviation Pro]

3. Kick for widest dissemination....

....

[Glorfindel]

4. Scary stuff!

South Mississippi here, 35 miles north of Gulfport. We're still recovering from Katrina. :scared:

[Baclava]

5. This is bad bad bad ....Katrina all over again...or worse

[Hell Hath No Fury]

6. Kick for visability.

[Janice325]

7. Katrina hit New Orleans August 29, John McCain's birthday.

I wonder if Johnny boy will announce his vp choice on that day, or be sharing his birthday cake with Dimson. Maybe both??:puke:
k&r

[MissDeeds]

8. Oh damn

Not another disaster on *'s watch. He handles them so well. :sarcasm:
I hope folks are preparing now and not waiting for their government to act. It's been awol for seven plus years.

:kick:

[alfredo]

11. Some think it will move west and hit Texas. I have little faith in

Republican built Levees.

[wvbygod]

12. Have they started confiscating peoples guns yet?

Hopefully the politicians in charge now have better sense.

[AngryAmish]

13. Maybe people should be making their plans to leave now

Last time it didn't go so good.

[GreenPartyVoter]

14. Maybe the gov't will do more to assist those people who can't get out on their own this time? I hope

there is a much better plan in place now and that things will run smoothly and that people will be safe.

[AngryAmish]

15. You trust the gov't to do this?

Last time they didn't do such a good job.

Unfortunately, they are on their own, again.

[Feron]

16. Sigh.

I just hope it doesn't come to the NOLA area.

The models aren't very promising, but it's still too early to tell. I'm starting my preparations just in case.

Gustav is going to be a monster once he hits the warm waters of the Gulf. Whoever gets him, I hope that he downgrades before landfall like Lili did.

[Ganja Ninja]

17. Should be hitting the gulf coast right about the time the ...

gavel drops to start the GOP convention. Now that's timing.

[jhain]

18. Thank you

Now is the time to get ready

[AngryOldDem]

19. Just looked at NOAA's projected five-day cone....

...and it has the storm making a beeline for NOLA.

Got a ba-a-a-a-a-d feeling about this one.