ALERT: NEW ORLEANS/NORTH GULF REGION

[Aviation Pro]

The 2300 EDT (0300Z) forecast and analysis for TS Gustav is now available at the National Hurricane Center's web site.

The discussion from the site says it best:

THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE FIX WAS AT 23Z. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT
INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF GUSTAV BEGAN TO MOVE WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION. PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
WINDS WERE 39 KT AND THE HIGHEST RECENT BELIEVABLE SFMR WINDS WERE
41 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE 250/7...ALTHOUGH THE
CENTER HAS BEEN VERY HARD TO TRACK SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST FIX
AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF MY ADVISORY POSITION. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE...ORIENTED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST...IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS RIDGE HAS IMPARTED A BIT OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
OF MOTION THAT SOME MODELS SHOW PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR
SO. AFTER THAT...GUSTAV IS EXPECTED TO ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE AND TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
COMPLICATING THE FORECAST IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS THE
EVOLUTION AND IMPACT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
CENTRAL OR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
BLOCKING HIGH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMINISCENT OF WHAT HAPPENED
WITH FAY A WEEK OR SO AGO. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...THE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES
MOST STRONGLY ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...UKMET...GFDL...AND
GFS...WHICH IS NOW FOLLOWING THE VORTEX FAIRLY WELL...AND IS JUST
TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE LEFT.

GUSTAV HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY DISPRUPTED BY ITS ENCOUNTER WITH THE
TERRAIN OF HAITI. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE
OVERTAKING THE CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHEAST. IN ANOTHER 24-36
HOURS...HOWEVER...GUSTAV SHOULD FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER
ANTICYCLONE AND OVER THE VERY DEEP WARM WATERS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN...AND SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO
RESTRENGTHEN. IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES GUSTAV OVER
THE LOOP CURRENT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF. AFTER THAT...GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN THE GULF
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH THAT COULD SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOWER
RESTRENGTHENING THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INITIALLY...BUT IS
OTHERWISE SIMILAR...AND ROUGHLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

IT PROBABLY WOULDN'T HURT TO REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE 5-DAY
OFFICIAL TRACK ERROR IS ABOUT 300 MILES...AND THE AVERAGE 5-DAY
INTENSITY ERROR IS ABOUT 25 MPH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/0300Z 18.8N 75.4W 40 KT
12HR VT 28/1200Z 18.8N 76.5W 45 KT
24HR VT 29/0000Z 18.9N 78.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 29/1200Z 19.4N 79.5W 60 KT
48HR VT 30/0000Z 20.1N 81.0W 70 KT
72HR VT 31/0000Z 22.5N 84.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 87.5W 95 KT
120HR VT 02/0000Z 29.0N 89.5W 95 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Here is the 5-day track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT07/refresh/AL0708W5+gif/024313W_sm.gif

[jeff30997]

1. Not again!!!

:cry:

[Heather MC]

16. Those God damn Fundamentalist Christians Prayed for this

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Yeah but this is not funny

Hopefully the track will move towards a nice uninhabited area of the gulf coast

[Aviation Pro]

5. The one thing I do not do when it comes to tropical cyclones....

...is treat them with any sense of amusement. After experiencing seven of them up close I can't afford to.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. I wonder if I should warm my dialing fingers?

Katrina.... called all I knew to get the help needed and tell them how

Same for the floods this year...

Getting old... to have to tell people how to do their job!

The little I can do on the other side of the country

[karlschneider]

7. Er, where is an uninhabited area on the gulf coast?

??

[nadinbrzezinski]

9. There are a couple areas with at least a lot less pop density

both in Mexico and the US... the former takes a hell of a turn, the latter look at the swamps.

Better, I guess than major cities....

If I had my way... don't hit nobody


GRRRR I hate that spelling error!

[Aviation Pro]

10. There's a relatively unihabited area southeast....

...of the Florida panhandle that is a natural hurricane barrier. One, hopefully the forecast shearing will abate Gustav and two, failing that, the ridging will abate and Gustav will steer toward it.

[karlschneider]

19. Okay I was thinking more westerly, I guess you mean north of Cedar Key

unfortunately that area doesn't seem to be at all likely for a Gustav hit...I can't remember a hurricane ever going right into it, do you?

[Aviation Pro]

22. No, the storms tend to strike south of Cedar Key....

...

[endless october]

15. cosign

i echo your sentiment. i hope New Orleans doesn't have to deal with another hurricane.

[wuushew]

3. Does anyone else think the government is pushing evacuation too early?

As a fall-back excuse for when the elderly and poor die in this storm, i.e. blame the victims?


You can move a lot of people in buses, trains and cars in a very short period of time.

[Behind the Aegis]

8. It is becoming a pissing contest between Nagin and Jindal.

The good thing is those who can't get out on their own will have options. The things is the storm keeps doing funky things and is getting weaker. We are praying Jindal doesn't call for a mandatory evacuation because things will go to hell quickly. Today, started Southern Decadence, which is supposed to bring over 200,000 visitors to our city and pump several millions of dollars into our economy. While I think it important to stay on top of this situation, it is also important to remember there are a number of situations which could evolve and not to panic.

[DangerousRhythm]

18. I hope not.

I would imagine, I would REALLY hope, that the push to get people out of there is out of genuine concern... although either way, people can get out so it's good they're doing it early. Better earlier than when roads are packed. Hurricane Rita here was a disaster for road travel... people moving 5 miles in 12 hours if they were lucky. I was stuck here, woke up and saw the roads and didn't even try to leave. It was a real horror, especially on the heels of Katrina, which really was enough to traumatize anyone remotely human, and the news was playing the ominous storm music and talking about a cat 5 slamming right into us, ugh. Sorry for the ramble but I am SO sick of storms. :(

[LynneSin]

20. They have a convention next week - if they fuck this up aka Katrina

they will be out of the White House. There is no democrat governor to blame this mess on - it's all in their court.

[lonestarnot]

4. Swampie are you out there? Are you packed?

[TahitiNut]

11. GMTA

May the angels keep good watch over Swampie.

[lonestarnot]

13. Yes! May they please!

:hug:

[Catherine Vincent]

12. SwampRat can bunk over at my place.

:)

[lonestarnot]

14. And he has a bed there where it's dry?

OK then. :P

[magellan]

17. Unless it's a leaky waterbed

...it would obviously be dry, otherwise why offer.

:crazy:

[TornadoTN]

21. They're saying now that this thing could be potential Cat 5

There are some very warm waters in the middle of the Gulf right in this things track. Some weather experts say that it could be a monster hurricane if it follows most of the models.

Sending good vibes down that way.