August 28, 2008
Gallup Daily: Obama Moves Ahead, 48% to 42%
Democratic candidate gains in Monday through Wednesday interviewing
PRINCETON, NJ -- Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin.
The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention "bounce" that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades. There is a lag of sorts involved in the daily tracking; interviewing is conducted in most parts of the country before that evening's high-focus speeches have taken place. Thus, the current three-day average would reflect any impact of Monday night's speech by Michelle Obama, and Tuesday night's speech by Hillary Clinton, but would not completely reflect Wednesday night's lineup of speakers, such as John Kerry, former President Bill Clinton, and vice presidential nominee Joe Biden, nor the appearance on stage at the end of the evening by Barack Obama himself.
Gallup's interviewing for last Friday through Sunday, the last three days before the convention officially began, showed the race at a 45% to 45% tie. Thus, there is already a six percentage point bounce evident in the data, although the final "official" post-convention bounce used in comparison with other recent conventions will not be tabulated by Gallup until interviewing for Friday through Sunday is completed.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109897/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Moves-Ahead-48-42.aspx