So, when can we expect hyper-inflation?

[arcadian]

$5000 bread better be the best god damn bread I've ever tasted in my entire life.

[tridim]

1. It'll probably still have HFCS in it.

[John Q. Citizen]

2. Not until the hyper deflation stage

[MercutioATC]

10. Righto.

We have a while before the inflationary triggers take effect. What we're looking at in the short term is deflation. "Deflation" might sound good, but it isn't.

[2speak]

3. Prices held steady during the Great Depression

no reason to think this would happen.

[Art_from_Ark]

11. Which part of the Depression are you referring to?

From 1929-1931, prices were farily stable ($100 today would be the equivalent of about $8.56 back then), but decreased from 1932 to 1934 (when today's $100 was the equivalent of $6.48), because of the lack of money in circulation. After 1934, prices tended to increase gradually after the dollar was devalued in relation to gold.

http://www.westegg.com/inflation/

[JackRiddler]

4. It just happened the last 10 years or so...

My guess:

It was expressed in the form of insane overvaluation of assets, with projections of hyper-insane further overvaluations in the future used as though they were good for collateral on loans to pump the bubble in the first place. That's popping now, with a depression as effect, so demand will be low, and consumer goods inflation (which has also been present all along and played down in the cooked "core inflation" statistics) will not be that dramatic.

Until, that is, the day everyone in the rest of the world acknowledges the US and its economy are never actually going to pay off the collective public and private debts, and there's a run on the dollar. But don't worry, there's no way you'll have $5000 for a loaf of bread then anyway.

Another scenario is oil, but never mind. Demand for that may not be rising for a while, even if it has really plateaued.

[2speak]

6. Supply and demand no longer applies due to JIT

Just in time delivery. They started that many years ago. They no longer have stock sitting in warehouses that cause over supply. I wish people would understand this. The Saudis will just cut production. It's that simple now. They adjust supply to demand keeping prices where they want them.

[JackRiddler]

8. But I'm not talking about supply, I'm talking about demand.

Depression means less demand, right? A lot of consumer prices will therefore remain stable. In the case of a lot of the junk we like to blow wads on, perhaps there will be no need to just-in-time deliver jack shit.

JIT, a topic I happen to have written on in the past, is also not a method for magically putting oil back in the ground. I was talking about the possible impact of depletion theories. Depletion should slow regardless for a while as demand tanks.

[Newshues]

5. This time next year n/t

[WhaTHellsgoingonhere]

7. I think the global markets can absorb a lot of USD at this point

[Geek_Girl]

9. I think heard some banker from USB say we're in for disinflation

nt