11/03 FINAL ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA 367 EV; State-54.3% Natl-54.1%; MAY EC MODEL PROJECTED 54.1%

[tiptoe]

2008 ELECTION MODEL
A  Monte Carlo  Electoral  Vote  Simulation

TruthIsAll

Updated: November 3

Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update

Chart   State Poll Aggregate + Projection Trend

Chart   National 5-Poll Moving Average Projection

Chart   State vs. National: Vote Share Projection Trends

Chart   Battleground-State Polls

Chart   Battleground-State Win Probability

Chart   Obama Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency

Chart   Electoral Vote + Win Probability Trend

Chart   Electoral Vote + Projected Vote Share Trend

Chart   Undecided Voter Allocation + Win Probability

Chart   Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Trials

 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer 

Uncounted  &  Switched Votes

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Vote Share

Chart   Effect on Obama Projected Electoral Vote

 

“I’m glad that TIA raises the questions. A Top 10 list.”  — Sancho

 

This
State
National
State
National
Monte  Carlo
Simulation

Update
Poll
5-Poll
2-party
2-party
Expected

11/03/2008
Aggregate
Average
Projection
Projection
Electoral Vote

Obama
McCain
 51.3 (53.94) 
 43.8 (46.06) 
 51.1 (53.79) 
 43.9 (46.21) 
54.28
45.7
54.14
45.9
 365.3 
 172.7 

    

15-Poll

End

Sample

Poll

NATIONAL MODEL

 

Pre   Undecided Voter Allocation
5-Poll Mov Avg

 

2-Party Projection  (60% UVA)
5-Poll Mov Avg

Trend
                            
Research2k
Gallup
Zogby
Hotline/FD
Rasmussen

ABC/WP
Battleground
NBC/WSJ
CNN
Pew

CBS
Marist
FOX News
Ipsos
Pew

Registered V
vs     Likely V
Poll Averages

Date
            
11/02
11/02
11/02
11/02
11/02

11/02
10/30
11/02
11/01
11/01

10/31
10/29
10/29
10/27
10/26

Size   
              
1100 LV
2847 RV
1201 LV
882 LV
3000 LV

2446 RV
1000 LV
1011 LV
1017 LV
2587 RV

1005 LV
543 LV
924 LV
831 LV
1325 RV

RV avg
LV avg
Total
2-party

MoE
         
2.95%
1.84%
2.83%
3.30%
1.79%

1.98%
3.10%
3.08%
3.07%
1.93%

3.09%
4.21%
3.22%
3.40%
2.69%

Obama
            
51
52
51
50
51

54
49
51
51
49

54
50
47
50
52

51.75
50.45
50.80
54.20

McCain
            
44
41
44
45
46

42
45
43
43
42

41
43
44
45
36

40.25
43.91
42.93
45.80

Other
            
5
7
5
5
3

4
6
6
6
9

5
7
9
5
12

8.00
5.64
6.27
0.00

Spread
            
7
11
7
5
5

12
4
8
8
7

13
7
3
5
16

11.50
6.55
7.87
8.39

 

Obama
            
51.1
51.1
51.0
50.7
51.3

51.1
50.1
50.3
50.4
50.7

51.1
50.4
50.9
51.3
51.6

McCain
            
43.9
43.7
44.0
43.7
43.1

42.7
43.0
43.0
42.0
41.7

41.3
41.1
40.6
40.3
39.9

Spread
            
7.3
7.4
7.0
7.0
8.1

8.4
7.1
7.3
8.4
9.0

9.9
9.3
10.3
11.0
11.7

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.8
99.2

100.0
96.6
100.0
99.9
100.0

99.9
92.6
98.6
100.0
100.0

 

Obama
            
54.1
54.2
54.0
54.1
54.6

54.8
54.3
54.3
55.0
55.3

55.7
55.5
56.0
56.3
56.7

McCain
            
45.9
45.8
46.0
45.9
45.4

45.2
45.7
45.7
45.0
44.7

44.3
44.5
44.0
43.7
43.3

Spread
            
8.3
8.5
8.0
8.1
9.3

9.7
8.5
8.6
9.9
10.5

11.4
11.0
12.0
12.7
13.4

Win Prob
               
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
99.7

100.0
99.1
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.0
99.0
99.6
100.0
100.0

 

 

FINAL PROJECTION:  Obama wins by     76–64 million votes     367–171 EV     53–45% vote share margin.

The 2008 Election Model (EM) assumes as a base case that a fraud-free election is held today — and that current polls reflect the true vote. The state model projects Obama will win the Electoral Vote by 367–171. The final projected vote share is Obama-53.1 McCain-44.9% Other-2.0%. The state poll aggregate vote share matched the national average tracking poll to within 0.2%.

The model projects that Obama will carry 30 states + DC:

CA CO CT DE FL HI IL IA ME MD / MA MI MN MO MT NV NH NJ NM NY / NC ND OH OR PA RI VT VA WA WI

In May, the 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m  (54.1–44.7%).

For the 2008 EC to match the EM, its estimate of returning 60.5m-Kerry and 51.6m-Bush voters had to be accurate.
The EC used 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares to calculate the projections.
In other words, the 2008 EC and EM confirmed that Kerry won a landslide (see below).

These graphs display the trend from May 29–Nov 3: Electoral vote and projected vote share trend and State vs. National vote share projection Trend

The average of recent state polls is entered in the database. The EM assumes that 60% of the undecided voters will break to Obama (base case). The undecided vote allocation (UVA) is based on the assumption that Obama is the challenger and McCain is running for Bush’s third term (GWB is not the most popular of incumbents). The EM base case allocates a conservative 60% of the undecided vote to Obama; most pollsters typically use 70–90%, depending on the incumbent’s approval rating. Bush is at 22% and McCain 45%.

The model projects five vote share scenarios of undecided voter allocations (UVA) ranging from 40–90%. Obama won the base case scenario with an average 365.8 EV. The median and mode were 367. Even in the worst-case 40% UVA scenario, Obama won all 5000 election trials.

The Monte Carlo mean EV (365.8) matched the theoretical expected EV (365.3), illustrating the Law of Large Numbers (LLN): 5000 simulated election trials were required for the MEAN EV to CONVERGE to the THEORETICAL EV (the simulation is in the “longrun”). It is computational overkill to perform a meta analysis requiring the calculation of millions of EV combination scenarios in order to calculate the win probabilities.

Obama exceeded 360 EV in 3333 of 5000 Monte Carlo election trial simulations, so he has a 66.7% probability of winning at least 360 EV. The Monte Carlo simulation is displayed in this Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart. Note that ALL 5000 election trials are to the right of the 270 mark; therefore Obama’s win probability is 100%.

Polling data source:
Electoral-vote.com
RealClearPolitics.com

 

THE 2008 ELECTION MODEL
Final Monte Carlo Simulation

Assumptions

143.0
  3.0%
  3.0%

votes Cast
Uncounted
3rd Party

138.7
4.3
2.9

  votes Recorded  (in millions)
  75% to Obama
  Nader, Barr, McKinney et al

  60%   Undecided Voters Allocated (UVA) to Obama

 

National Model
Tracking Poll Avg (%)
Projected True Vote %
Projected True Vote (mil)
Proj. Recorded Vote %
Proj. Recorded Vote (mil)
Proj. 2-party True Vote %

State Model
Aggregate Poll Avg (%)
Projected True Vote %
Projected True Vote (mil)
Proj. Recorded Vote %
Proj. Recorded Vote (mil)
Proj. 2-party True Vote %

Obama
51.1
52.9
75.7
52.3
72.5
54.1


51.3
53.1
75.9
52.4
72.7
54.3

McCain
43.9
45.1
64.4
45.7
63.4
45.9


43.8
44.9
64.2
45.5
63.2
45.7

Oth/UV
5.0
2.0
2.9
2.1
2.9
0.0


4.9
2.0
2.9
2.1
2.9
0.0

Margin
7.3
7.9
11.3
6.6
9.1
8.3


7.6
8.2
11.7
6.9
9.5
8.6

 
 
 
(True Vote less Uncounted)
 
 


 
 
 
(True Vote less Uncounted)
 
 

 

Electoral Vote Snapshot
Poll Leader
Projected Leader
Expected EV

367
370
365.29

171
168
172.71

Before UVA
After UVA
EV = ∑ (Win probability (i) * EV(i)), i=1,51 states

 

Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation (5000 election trials)

Mean
Median
Mode
Maximum
Minimum

365.81
367
367
414
294

172.19
171
171
124
244

Average
Middle value
Most frequent

 

Obama Electoral Vote Win Probabilities

Electoral Vote
Trial Wins > EV
Change in Trial Wins
Prob. Trial Wins > EV

320
4969
31
99.38%

330
4832
137
96.64%

340
4668
164
93.4%

350
4218
450
84.4%

360
3333
885
66.7%

370
2270
1063
45.4%

380
1072
1198
21.4%

390
380
692
7.6%

400
50
330
1.00%

410
3
47
0.06%

420
0
3
0.00%

 

 
S T A T E   M O D E L
 
N A T I O N A L   M O D E L
 
MONTE CARLO
SIMULATION

 
L A T E S T  S T A T E–P O L L  A V E R A G E
 
L A T E S T   P O L L S   M O V–A V E R A G E
 
EXPECTED

 
Weighted
Aggregate
2-party
Current
2-party
Projection
Actual
Projection
 

5-Poll
5-Poll 2-party
Current
2-party
Projection
Actual
Projection
 
ELECTORAL VOTE

 
 
 
60% UVA
 
 
 
 
60% UVA

11/03/2008
Obama
McCain
EV Map

51.3
43.8
 

54.0
46.0
 

54.28
45.7
 

53.08
44.9
 

 
 
 

51.1
43.9
 

53.8
46.2
 

54.14
45.9
 

52.94
45.1
 

 
 
 

365.3
172.7
 

 

 
75% UVA
 
 
 
 
75% UVA

11/01/2004
Kerry
Bush
EV Map

47.88
46.89
 

50.52
49.48
 

51.80
48.20
 

51.05
47.95
 

 
 
 

47.80
46.60
 

50.64
49.36
 

51.77
48.23
 

51.25
47.75
 

 
 
 

 337 
 201 
 

 


Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Uncounted and Switched Votes on Obama

Uncounted
1%
 
2%
 
3%
 
Switched
4%
8%
10%
Vote%
52.0
49.8
48.7
EV
311
276
251
Vote%
51.8
49.6
48.5
EV
305
272
247
Vote%
51.6
49.4
48.3
EV
319
266
242

 

Sensitivity Analysis — Impact of Aggregate State Projected Vote Share

Undecided Voter Allocation
Current
Base Case

Obama
40%
54.0%
60%
75%
90%

 

Projected 2-Party Vote Share

Obama
McCain
53.3
46.7
54.0
46.0
54.3
45.7
55.0
45.0
55.7
44.3

 

MoE
Popular Vote – Obama Win Probability (Normdist)

1.0 %
2.0 %
3.0 %
100.0
99.9
98.4
100.0
100.0
99.5
100.0
100.0
99.7
100.0
100.0
99.9
100.0
100.0
100.0

 

Electoral Vote – Obama       (Monte Carlo Simulation:  based on state win-probabilities)

Mean
Median
345.0
347
359.0
362
365.8
367
379.5
381
393.8
396
Mode
367
367
367
381
396
 
Maximum
Minimum
395
289
406
294
414
294
421
317
445
333

 

Electoral Vote – Obama Win Probability

Trial Wins
Probability
5000
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0
5000
100.0

 

95% EV Confidence Interval
Upper
Lower
381
309
394
324
399
333
409
350
421
367

 

States Won
Obama
28
30
31
32
33

 

2008 POLLING ANALYSIS AND PROJECTIONS

National Model — see atop
State Model
 

 
 
L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L 
 
KEY STATES
(within MoE)
 
2004  RECORDED VOTE–COUNT  vs  KERRY
EM VOTE–PROJECTION  &  WPE EXIT POLL
 
2008  vs  2004
PROJECTED  VOTE


 

 
 
Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
60% UVA
Projection
 
MC Exp EV
Win Prob
 

Resource  Allocation
 
Vote
Projected
WPE (IM)
 Exit Poll 
Vote
Counted
 
Vote Counted
deviation
 
 
2008 Obama
diff
 
StatesEV
Flip To(*)
 

     

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
       
Last
Poll
 Date 
       
10/28
10/30
10/30
10/31
10/31

10/30
10/22
9/13
10/28
11/2

10/30
9/20
9/17
11/1
11/2

11/1
10/28
11/1
10/29
11/1

9/20
10/28
11/1
11/2
10/29

11/2
11/2
9/30
11/2
10/30

10/30
10/31
10/28
11/2
10/29

11/2
10/29
10/30
11/2
10/1

10/29
10/31
10/22
10/21
10/30

10/26
11/2
10/31
10/26
10/29
10/29
       
 
VoteShare
 Popular 
 Electoral 

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
       
Obama
 51.34 %
 367 
       
36
40
46
44
60

51
56
90
63
49

46
68
33
60
46

54
39
41
40
56

57
55
53
53
42

47
48
37
51
53

55
53
64
49
46

51
34
56
52
58

43
44
40
44
32

60
51
54
42
54
35
 
McCain
 43.77 %
  171  
       
61
58
50
51
36

45
35
9
33
47

49
27
62
37
48

39
56
55
50
43

38
37
38
43
53

46
47
56
44
42

38
45
31
48
47

45
63
39
43
39

53
53
54
54
56

36
46
39
50
40
58
      
 
Spread
7.57 %
 196   
     
-25
-18
 -4
 -7
 24

  6
 21
 81
 30
  2

 -3
 41
-29
 23
 -2

 15
-17
-14
-10
 13

 19
 18
 15
 10
-11

  1
  1
-19
  7
 11

 17
  8
 33
  1
 -1

  6
-29
 17
  9
 19

-10
 -9
-14
-10
-24

 24
  5
 15
 -8
 14
-23
 
 
Obama
54.28 %
 370 
       
37.8
41.2
48.4
47.0
62.4

53.4
61.4
90.6
65.4
51.4

49.0
71.0
36.0
61.8
49.6

58.2
42.0
43.4
46.0
56.6

60.0
59.8
58.4
55.4
45.0

51.2
51.0
41.2
54.0
56.0

59.2
54.2
67.0
50.8
50.2

53.4
35.8
59.0
55.0
59.8

45.4
45.8
43.6
45.2
39.2

62.4
52.8
58.2
46.8
57.6
39.2 
 
Obama
100.0 %
 365.3 
       
0.0
0.0
14.8
2.5
100.0

98.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
82.0

25.7
100.0
0.0
100.0
39.7

100.0
0.0
0.0
0.4
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
0.1

78.3
74.3
0.0
99.6
100.0

100.0
99.7
100.0
69.9
55.2

98.7
0.0
100.0
99.9
100.0

0.1
0.3
0.0
0.1
0.0

100.0
96.6
100.0
1.8
100.0
0.0 
 
Percent
  
          
       


6.0
1.4


3.2



22.7

10.8



9.2













10.6
2.9

1.2



0.6

14.4
2.9

7.2












6.2

0.6

  
 
Rank
 
          
       


8
12


9



1

3



5













4
10

13



14

2
10

6












7

14

  
 
Final  Kerry
51.02 %
 337 
       
41.3
39.0
48.0
49.8
55.0

50.0
55.8
85.5
57.0
51.5

45.8
51.8
37.5
56.3
40.5

53.8
38.5
42.0
48.3
57.5

55.5
70.0
53.5
54.3
46.5

49.3
40.5
36.5
49.8
50.8

55.3
49.8
59.3
48.5
41.8

51.5
35.5
53.8
53.0
61.3

43.5
45.8
48.5
39.3
28.5

57.5
47.8
54.3
48.8
54.0
32.8
       
JK Unadj
51.98 %
 337 

41.8
40.2
44.5
45.2
60.1

50.1
62.3
90.6
61.3
51.0

42.0
58.1
32.3
56.6
40.4

50.7
37.2
39.9
43.5
55.6

59.6
65.8
54.4
55.7
49.4

49.0
37.3
37.0
52.8
57.2

57.5
53.0
64.5
49.5
34.6

54.0
33.8
53.0
55.1
62.1

45.8
35.9
43.2
42.0
28.1

66.5
49.8
56.8
40.2
52.1
32.6
Kerry
48.27 %
 252 

36.8
35.5
44.4
44.5
54.3

47.0
54.3
89.2
53.3
47.1

41.4
54.0
30.3
54.8
39.3

49.2
36.6
39.7
42.2
53.6

55.9
61.9
51.2
51.1
39.8

46.1
38.6
32.7
47.9
50.2

52.9
49.0
58.4
43.6
35.5

48.7
34.4
51.3
50.9
59.4

40.9
38.4
42.5
38.2
26.0

58.9
45.5
52.8
43.2
49.7
29.1
    
 
Projected
-2.75 %
   -85   

-4.4
-3.5
-3.6
-5.2
-0.7

-3.0
-1.4
 3.7
-3.7
-4.4

-4.4
 2.3
-7.2
-1.4
-1.2

-4.5
-1.9
-2.3
-6.0
-3.9

 0.4
-8.1
-2.3
-3.2
-6.3

-3.1
-1.9
-3.8
-1.9
-0.5

-2.3
-0.7
-0.9
-4.9
-6.3

-2.8
-1.1
-2.4
-2.1
-1.8

-2.6
-7.3
-6.0
-1.0
-2.5

 1.4
-2.3
-1.4
-5.6
-4.3
-3.7
    
 
  Polled  
- 3.71 %
 -85 
 
-5.0
-4.7
-0.1
-0.6
-5.8

-3.1
-8.0
-1.4
-8.0
-3.9

-0.6
-4.1
-2.0
-1.8
-1.1

-1.5
-0.5
-0.2
-1.3
-2.0

-3.7
-3.9
-3.2
-4.6
-9.3

-2.9
 1.3
-4.4
-5.0
-7.0

-4.6
-4.0
-6.1
-6.0
 0.9

-5.3
 0.6
-1.7
-4.2
-2.7

-4.9
 2.6
-0.6
-3.8
-2.2

-7.6
-4.4
-4.0
 3.0
-2.4
-3.5
 
   Final  Kerry  
2.76 %
   33   

-4.0
 1.7
-0.1
-3.3
 6.9

 2.9
 5.2
 4.6
 7.9
-0.6

 2.8
18.8
-2.0
 5.1
 8.6

 4.0
 3.0
 0.9
-2.8
-1.4

 4.0
-10.7
 4.4
 0.7
-2.0

 1.5
10.0
 4.2
 3.8
 4.8

 3.5
 4.0
 7.3
 1.8
 8.0

 1.4
-0.2
 4.8
 1.5
-2.0

 1.4
-0.5
-5.4
 5.5
10.2

 4.4
 4.6
 3.5
-2.5
 3.1
 6.0
    
 
Obama
12
 128 

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO*
MT*
NE
NV*
NH

NJ
NM*
NY
NC*
ND*

OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA*
WA
WV
WI*
WY
    

 

The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa)

In May 2008, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m (54.1–44.7%).

Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (EC) True Vote and the 2008 Election Model (EM) Projections

 

On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:

The 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares were input to the 2008 EC.
In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions.
The resulting 2008 EC calculated True Vote projection closely matched the EM Polls-projection (to within 0.2%).
Therefore, the EC 2004 vote shares and weighting mix are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate.
The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate.
The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters.
Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.3–63.8 million votes, assuming a fraud-free election.
Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other

2008 Election Calculator (EC)

2004-Voters  Return
in 2008  — Estimate

 

True 'Voted 2004'
Mix  Calculated

12:22am NEP Shares ('13047')

In 2004

Kerry
Bush
Other

125.7

Turnout '08
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7

 

Votes
29.9
60.6
51.6
1.6

143.7

Mix
20.8%
42.2%
35.9%
1.1%

100.0%

Obama
57%
91%
10%
64%

54.5%

McCain
41%
8%
90%
11%

44.4%

Other
2%
1%
0%
25%

1.1%

75% UVA

143.7

78.3

63.8

1.5

 

 

2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (EM)

54.3%

44.7%

1.0%

 

143.7

78.0

64.3

1.4

 

2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (EM)

53.1%

44.9%

2.0%

 

143.7

75.9

64.2

2.9

 

 

Refer to source for the following Topics:

Projected Vote Shares, Electoral Votes and Win Probabilities

The 1988-2004 Election Calculator (formatted presentation here)

Why Election Model projections differ from the Media, Academia and the Bloggers

Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV

The Great Election Fraud Lockdown: Uncounted, Stuffed and Switched Votes

Election Model Calculations

Calculating the Expected Electoral Vote and Win Probability

 

Other links:
2004 Election Model Summary, Polling Analysis, National & State Model tables
Confirmation of A Kerry Landslide
Election Fraud Analytics and Response to the TruthIsAll FAQ
2004 Registered Voter (RV) vs. Likely Voter (LV) Polls

Excel Models available for download:
The Election Calculator: 1988-2004
2004 Interactive Simulation Model
A Polling Simulation Model
2000-2004 County Vote Database

[WilliamPitt]

1. Mmmm...I haven't had my eyeballs obliterated by a TIA data-bomb in a while.

Thanks! :)

[tiptoe]

2. k!

[tiptoe]

3. 2004 EC: '04 Prelim Exit Poll Vote-shares applied to 2008 EC "Est 'Voted-2004' Mix" + implications:

The Election Calculator (EC) is an election-forecasting model that uses demographics (concepts and assumptions) to generate a feasible dataset for projecting an election's Popular Vote Share. It is an independent alternative to the Election Model (EM) reliance solely on polls for its Vote Projections, i.e. State polls, for generating an "Expected Electoral Vote" using Monte Carlo EV Simulation and National polls, using moving averages of the "latest-five" from a collection of national pollster results -- thereby less subject to the vagaries between single polls (types-LV/RV,sizes,methods,erros,etc) -- for projecting Popular Vote shares.

The EC model and the EM model are independent models, using distinct methods and different data sets, and affording independent projections of an election's Popular Vote. They produce results which can be compared.

The 2004 Election Exit Polls generated controversy, when three preliminary exit polls showed Kerry leading by 3% over Bush throughout election night, as the polls closed and before the vote-counts from each state began emerging, East coast to West. (A "computer glitch" disrupted the third, 12:22am Preliminary exit poll results from appearing in official report format, but the Washington Post managed to get the data into print.) The fourth and Final exit "poll", though -- released the day after the election and with its preliminary-demographics "adjusted", having been forced to match the states-reported vote-count (the standard operating practice of pollsters) -- showed Bush "officially" "winning" by a 3% margin, the same margin that Kerry had led by throughout the election-night's three preliminary-polling measures...i.e. a 6% reversal of fortune, not only for American soldiers sent "half-strength" into an unwinnable war in Iraq, based on lies, but also for 1.2 million Iraqis killed and another million injured (more than 4% of Iraq's population).

Which was trustworthy in 2004: the states' recorded vote counts which established Bush the "official" "winner" and to which the Final exit poll was forced to match...or one or more of the three Preliminary exit polls of Interviewed-Voters' responses, as they exited voting booths, and which had Kerry leading Bush throughout Election night?

The 2008 Election Calculator (EC) projected a %-Mix of "2004-voters-returning-to-vote-in-2008" using a mortality assumption, a 95% turnout assumption and an estimation of "new voters" based on the difference between a projection of 143.7 million votes to be cast today and the estimated total for "2004 returning voters". Then, as a test, the 2008 EC applied its calculated %-Mix-weights to the Kerry-Bush-Other vote-shares that appeared in the 2004 12:22am Preliminary NEP 'Voted-in-2000' category to see what would result as the projected popular vote share for Obama/McCain in 2008.

The independent 2008 Final Election Model (EM) projected Popular Vote shares of
Obama-54.3 McCain-44.7% Other-1.0%

The independent 2008 Election Calculator Model (EC) projected Popular Vote shares of
Obama-54.5 McCain-44.4% Other-1.1%

The two 2008 models independently match (within 0.2%) in their Popular Vote Share projection for the same election: The polls-based 2008 Election Model (EM), therefore, gives independent support to the vote shares used in the demographics-based 2008 Election Calculator (EC) "test".

Those votes shares happen to be the same vote shares measured in the 'voted-in-2000' category of the 2004 12:22am Preliminary Nat'l Exit Poll (13,047 random-sample, 1% MoE)

Those same Preliminary NEP vote shares established Kerry winning the True Vote in 2004 by a 66.9–57.1 landslide. (see '12:22am Vote share' in 2004 Calculated True Vote' here )

The 2008 Election Calculator Model confirms the 2004 and 2008 Election Model (and vice-versa)

In May 2008, the 2008 Election Calculator projected that Obama would win the True Vote by 71–59m (54.1–44.7%).

Checking the 2004 Election Calculator (EC) True Vote and the 2008 Election Model (EM) Projections

 

On Nov.3, 2008 the following test was performed:

The 12:22am 2004 NEP vote shares were input to the 2008 EC.
In the 2008 EM, 75% UVA and 3rd party 1% share were input to match 2004 EC assumptions.
The resulting 2008 EC calculated True Vote projection closely matched the EM Polls-projection (to within 0.2%).
Therefore, the EC 2004 vote shares and weighting mix are also confirmed and therefore must be fairly accurate.
The 2008 EC could only be accurate (and match the EM), if the input estimate of returning 2004 Bush and Kerry voters was also accurate.
The model estimates 60m returning Kerry voters and 51.6m returning Bush voters.
Given a 75% UVA and 1% to Other, the EC projects Obama will win by 78.3–63.8 million votes, assuming a fraud-free election.
Note that the base case EM is 60% UVA and 2% Other

2008 Election Calculator (EC)

2004-Voters  Return
in 2008  — Estimate

 

True 'Voted 2004'
Mix  Calculated

12:22am NEP Shares ('13047')

In 2004

Kerry
Bush
Other

125.7

Turnout '08
DNV
95%
95%
95%

113.7

 

Votes
29.9
60.6
51.6
1.6

143.7

Mix
20.8%
42.2%
35.9%
1.1%

100.0%

Obama
57%
91%
10%
64%

54.5%

McCain
41%
8%
90%
17%

44.4%

Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.1%

75% UVA

143.7

78.3

63.8

1.5

 

 

2008 Election Model (75% UVA) (EM)

54.3%

44.7%

1.0%

 

143.7

78.0

64.3

1.4

 

2008 Election Model (60% UVA) (EM)

53.1%

44.9%

2.0%

 

143.7

75.9

64.2

2.9