Will Arlen Specter switch parties?

[babylonsister]

Specter faces make-or-break shift as challenge looms
By Alexander Bolton
Posted: 03/07/09 11:34 AM


Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.) does not have the fall-back option of running as an independent should he lose his 2010 primary election, giving the senior lawmaker strong incentive to abandon his party this year.

Specter faces an extremely difficult primary race against former Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.), the conservative firebrand who lost his bid to oust Specter from his seat in the 2004 GOP primary by a mere 17,000 votes (out of more than a million cast).

Pennsylvania political experts say that Specter would likely face a more difficult challenge in 2010 because the Republican primary electorate in Pennsylvania has become more conservative.

“I think he has a lot of problems,” said Terry Madonna, a professor of political science at Franklin and Marshall College in Lancaster, Pa. “I think this is the test of lifetime.”

Madonna estimated that between 150,000 to 200,000 centrist Republicans switched registration to the Democratic Party in the 2008 election cycle, leaving the remaining GOP electorate more conservative.

more...

http://thehill.com/leading-the-news/spector-faces-make-or-break-decision-as-challenge-looms-2009-03-07.html

[Vanje]

1. Arlen, Dont you think

it might be a good time to retire?

[I Have A Dream]

2. This is a serious issue for him.

He won by the skin of his teeth last primary.

[customerserviceguy]

3. Many of the switched registrations

were due to Limpball's so-called "Operation Chaos", where Repukes were urged to register as Democratic voters in time for PA's primary to keep Hillary Clinton fighting Barack Obama. The fact that Hillary won the primary means that they might have accomplished their goal.

Anyone willing to switch registrations for such a gimmick could also be depended on to oppose Sen. Specter in a Rethug primary should they switch back in time. The question is, could Democratic voters in PA support him if he should officially switch parties? If he fails to win the trust of Democratic voters, then he is toast.

[I Have A Dream]

5. In my area, the Democratic voters would probably vote for him.

Many of the Democrats are quite conservative as Democrats go.

[customerserviceguy]

8. And I could see that happening across the width and breadth of PA

but he'd need votes in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia as well.

[gratuitous]

4. If he does, will Pennsylvanians be fooled?

Senator Grandstand probably got the crap scared out of him when he saw his most faithful acolyte, Gordon Smith of Oregon, go down to defeat in 2008. The myth of the centrist Republican took a real beating. At some point, instead of just publicly nattering on about disagreeing with the Republican leadership, it might actually require, you know, a vote or two out of lock-step with the GOP.

[Lyric]

6. There's not much ideological difference between Specter and Casey.

A switch would probably be the best thing for him.

[Jackpine Radical]

7. What a wonderful world--

Facing a primary ya can't win without being a wingnut, and a general that you can't win without being a "moderate." I think that will be happening in a ot of places, forcing the American Nazi Republican Party further right and further out of touch with the average American.

[PA Democrat]

9. Did you guys know that Specter used to be a registered Democrat?

It was a long time ago, I think back in the 1970's that he switched to the Republican Party before running for District Attorney in Philadelphia.