German boy hit by pea-sized meteor. No, really.

[Commie Pinko Dirtbag]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/scienceandtechnology/science/space/5511619/14-year-old-hit-by-30000-mph-space-meteorite.html

And then there's this:

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/cosmicvariance/2009/06/04/did-a-meteor-bring-down-air-france-447

Hmmmmmmm.

[flvegan]

1. Wonder what those odds are.

[lapfog_1]

2. Article posted earlier said 100 million to 1.

Personally, that sounds a bit low to me.

[predfan]

4. This is why I play Powerball.

[flvegan]

7. "Surviving getting hit by a friggin meteor" HAS to be higher than that.

I agree with you. Lots of folks win the lottery every year. This is pretty amazing.

[lapfog_1]

11. Well, the average lottery (CA for example)

has odds of around 18Million to 1 against.

This would be like picking 5 winning tickets for 5 lotteries.

Still, even that seems low. I think there isn't another event like this (meteorite strikes human, human lives) in recorded history. Given that we have fairly good records for 100 years or so (and records of various qualities going back 4000 years), and given that there are about 7 billion people wondering around for the last 10 to 20 years on average, and given the number of small meteorites that strike the earth every day...

100 million to one against seems low.

Perhaps we should use this kid in some sort of improbability drive (give him a good source of Brownian motion, say a nice warm cup of tea) and zip around the universe changing surface to air missiles into bowels of petunias... or gray whales... and the last thought of the petunias as they fall back to the planet that launched them (as SAMs) is "oh no, not again!"

[G_j]

5. I read somewhere that there is no record

of a meteor ever striking a person.

[A HERETIC I AM]

8. Astronomical?

Pun intended.

If 3/4 of the planet is covered by water, and if on average, a human is taking up 1 square meter of space (taking into account large people and those lying down and I'm being VERY generous here), based on a population of 6,740,000,000 persons and a land area of 148,940,000 square kilometers, that makes a density of 45.25 people per square kilometer. A square kilometer is 1,000,000 square meters.

Chances are pretty fucking remote.

I can't believe I just spent 10 minutes looking that data up!

It was a long day, what can I say....

[flvegan]

9. Does it add to the statistical anomolie

that the article states that of the minute number of meteorites that DO make it to impact, 6 out of 7 indeed land in the water, or does that just attest to you first point you made (the earth being 3/4 water)?

Never took statistics, and you seem to be on the ball.

[muriel_volestrangler]

10. Possible reason for the 6/7 as opposed to 3/4:

Meteorites are in orbit around the Sun, most in roughly the same plane as the Earth, and so are going to 'see' the earth from a roughly equatorial perspective - the 'target area' for them near the equator is nearly head on, while nearer the poles it's foreshortened, so there's less chance of hitting there. And the Pacific is pretty big near the equator (and the Indian and Atlantic have a fair width there too), so the chances of hitting water increase. Plus spacecraft, and presumably meteors as well, can skip off the atmosphere if they come in at a shallow angle, as is more likely nearer the poles. :shrug: All guesses, not knowledge.

[A HERETIC I AM]

12. I'm by no means a statistician, but yes, that's why I mentioned water surface area.

I just went to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth">this Wikipedia page and used their number for land area (148,940 KM/2). The fact that 3/4 of the surface is water reduces the likelihood of being hit by such an object that much smaller right out of the gate. What has fascinated me for quite a while now is population densities and how much actual land area there is.

I think to bring the odds up even to the bottom steps of the basement, meteorites would have to specifically target cities only and even then, something the size the article mentions actually hitting anyone seems to me still very small indeed.

I once did a calculation using six billion people and the land area of the state of Texas. Every single one of six billion could easily fit inside Texas and have about 1200 square feet each to wander around in.

[maxsolomon]

3. lucky kid

lucky to be alive.

lucky to have all his limbs.

[muriel_volestrangler]

6. I find it hard to believe something that could cause a foot-wide crater

could have 'bounced off his hand'. If it still had that speed, it would have vaporised his hand like it vaporised the earth. I'd think more likely it came close, and was heating air in its immediate vicinity enough to leave a burn.

Hmm, Popular Science shares my scepticism. They doubt the foot-wide crater, instead.

[gratuitous]

13. I hear of pea-sized objects, I think of two things

1) A pea; and

B) Glenn Beck's alleged brain.