Chris Bowers says 45 "Yes" votes for public option in Senate with 15 "maybe" votes

[WI_DEM]

(Of the "maybe" votes who is most likely to vote "YES" so we have 51 votes (or 50 with Biden breaking a tie) in reconciliation)

Senate Public Option Whip Chart
63 Potential Supporters
Yes: 45
Maybe: 15
Unknown: 1
No: 2

STATE/SENATOR Public Option? Available Day One? Nationally Available? Can Bargain for Rates?
AK - Begich (D) Maybe (via email) Maybe (via email) Maybe (via email) Maybe (via email)
AR - Lincoln (D) Maybe Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
AR - Pryor (D) Maybe Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
CA - Boxer (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
CA - Feinstein (D) Yes Yes Maybe Dodges (via email)
CO - Bennet (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Maybe Dodges (via email)
CO - Udall (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Maybe Dodges (via email)
CT- Dodd (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
CT - Lieberman (I) No Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
DE - Carper (D) Maybe
DE - Kaufman (D) Yes
FL - Bill Nelson (D) Maybe (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
GA - Isakson (R) Maybe Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
HI - Akaka (D) Yes
HI - Inouye (D) Yes
IA - Harkin (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
IL - Burris (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
IL - Durbin (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
IN - Bayh (D) Maybe Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
LA - Landrieu (D) Maybe No No No
MA - Kerry (D) Yes Yes Yes Yes
MA - Kennedy (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
MD - Cardin (D) Yes Yes Yes Yes
MD - Mikulski (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
ME - Collins (R) No Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
ME - Snowe (R) Maybe
MI - Levin (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
MI - Stabenow (D) Yes
MN - Franken (D) Yes
MN - Klobuchar (D) Yes
MO - McCaskill (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
MT - Baucus (D) Maybe
MT - Tester (D) Maybe Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
NC - Hagan (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
ND - Conrad (D) Maybe Yes No Yes
ND - Dorgan (D) Yes Maybe Yes Yes
NE - Ben Nelson (D) Maybe
NH - Shaheen (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
NJ - Lautenberg (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
NJ - Menendez (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
NM - Bingaman (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
NM - Udall (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
NV - Reid (D) Yes
NY - Gillibrand (D) Yes Yes Yes Yes
NY - Schumer (D) Yes Yes Yes
OH - Brown (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill)
OR - Merkley (D) Yes Yes (via email) Yes (via email) Yes (via email)
OR - Wyden (D) Maybe Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
PA - Casey (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
PA - Specter (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
RI - Reed (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
RI - Whitehouse (D) Yes
SD - Johnson (D) Yes Unknown Yes Yes
VA - Warner (D) Maybe Dodges (via email) No Dodges (via email)
VA - Webb (D) Yes
VT - Leahy (D) Yes
VT - Sanders (I) Yes Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill)
WA - Cantwell (D) Yes Yes Yes Yes
WA - Murray (D) Yes Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill) Yes (supporting HELP bill))
WI - Feingold (D) Yes Yes Yes Yes
WI - Kohl (D) Yes Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email) Dodges (via email)
WV - Byrd (D) Unknown
WV - Rockefeller (D) Yes Yes

http://www.openleft.com/diary/14691/senate-whip-count-46-public-option-supporte

[berni_mccoy]

1. Good thing they only need 50.

[WI_DEM]

2. who do you think will eventually vote yes so it is 50 or more?

[tekisui]

3. Begich, Byah, Warner, Byrd.

With 3 or 4 on board, several others will make the leap with cover. We can get to 50.

[berni_mccoy]

5. Add Baucus and Wyden. Baucus is already backpedalling from his earlier vagueness

Says he now fully supports a public option.

[WI_DEM]

6. Eventually I think Wyden will in the end.

[John Q. Citizen]

14. He's always said that. It was in his white paper from last November.

[berni_mccoy]

16. No, he's changed his tune several times now. During the recess, he got an earful from his voters

and they didn't like what he'd been doing. He caved and now is supporting a Public Option.

[John Q. Citizen]

22. berni, I'm on the ground here in MT. I personally know some of his staff, I know

and work with some of the Democratic County Central Committee people who just had the conference phone conversation with him.

You can spread incorrect information if you want, but don't expect me to not challenge what I know to be factually incorrect.
I don't know where you get your information, but mine is here on the ground from the people involved.

Baucus still hasn't committed to actually writing some sort of public pool thingy into his bill. But he has always said that he personally favors a public option thingy. You just weren't listening, probably because you don't live here.

He hasn't gotten an earful from his voters because he's been hiding out during most of the recess. He got hammered across the state last spring by hundreds and hundreds of people who showed up at the Finance committee listening sessions, most of who favored single payer. He payed a huge political price for arresting the doctors during his committee meetings.

MT has a state wide seniors group that has been pushing single payer since the seventies, so we have a lot of seniors who know all about the issue and are very dedicated.

But you can believe whatever you want, of course.

[berni_mccoy]

25. How am I spreading incorrect information?

[John Q. Citizen]

33. Baucus has always personlly supported the PO. He never expressed anything different.

He hasn't committed to vote for it, and I doubt it will be in his bill.


Would he vote for it? maybe. Depends.

[WeDidIt]

9. Take Byrd out of that, no way does he vote for it

and not because he doesn't support the public option.

He wrote the rule that allows reconciliation and he'll be pissed off they're using reconciliation for this.

[tekisui]

10. Really?

That seems like a petty act. I would think he would want to take one of his last chances to be part of something meaningful.

[WeDidIt]

12. He's the most knowledgable Senator when it comes to the Senate

He'll vote against reconciliation out of principle.

Mark my words.

[tekisui]

13. When does he think reconciliation should be used?

For Judges?

[WeDidIt]

20. REconciliation cannot be used for judges

Reconciliaiton is usable only for matters related to the budget.

[berni_mccoy]

15. who is talking about reconciliation. The Dems have two other options to force a simple majority vote

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/733

[WeDidIt]

23. The nuclear option is out of the question.

The Republicans only threatened the nuclear option as it related to teh confirmation of judges, and it would not have applied to anything else even under their tenuous argument. No way will the Democrats use it on a matter related to budgetary concerns.

If you can muster sixty votes to stave off a filibuster, great. Bringing in the cots is merely political kabuki and every Senator knows it. Remember, though, Lieberman will go with the Republicans on this.

Nope, reconciliaiton will be the methodology used as it was used to great effect by the Bush administration.

[trayfoot]

21. Warner damn well better!

[John Q. Citizen]

4. Which kind of pubic option/ one anybody can access? Or the non-exisrtant ones currently in congress?

[berni_mccoy]

7. HR 3200 has a strong public option and is supported by the Progressive Caucus.

[John Q. Citizen]

11. How do you define "strong" The CBO say only 10 million enrolles by 2019.

And it's only available to a very small group of Americans.

If that's strong then what would be weak?

[berni_mccoy]

17. It's strong because the Progressive Caucus said they would only support a strong PO.

[John Q. Citizen]

19. Is your argument that the progressive caucus is infallible? I can read and that ain't strong

It's not going to do anything. It's set up to not contain costs, it's set up to only be accessible to very few. How will that help?

You don't think people will notice, if we just don't talk about it?

[berni_mccoy]

28. My argument is that the Progressive Caucus supports it and they wouldn't if they didn't think

it was strong enough.

[John Q. Citizen]

32. Strong enough for what? They already violated there own priciples they set for a

public option.

If it doesn't meet their own standards then why do you have confidence in a PO that is sub par?
http://pnhp.org/blog/2009/07/28/does-the-congressional-progressive-caucus-care-about-its-public-option-principles/

Rep Cleaver and Kucinich have both commented on how they think it may be overly compromised.

[bluestateguy]

8. I'm assuming Kennedy would show up to vote with everything he has left in him?

Please tell me I am right...

[Jennicut]

31. Not likely....he is really sick.

We need every vote we can get.

[Doctor_J]

18. 65% of the populace, only 45% of the Senate

when did democracy die in the US?

[Echo In Light]

24. There were mid 70% figures re public support of PO prior to the TH shenanigans

One I recall as high as 77% in favor.

[Deep13]

26. So we need 5 more + Joe Biden.

Good enough.

And all you D.s siding with the corporations--you are selling out your states and treating them like rotten boroughs.

[tjwash]

27. Time to rachet up the heat

Fuck this shit...at some point Obama needs to take the gloves off and go LBJ on these mother fuckers. If he has to start twisting arms to do it, then good. Americans are dying as company profits continue to rise, and it has to stop.

If he’s got to threaten a few fence-sitting DLC shitheads, then that’s what he has to do. First, strip them of any committee power that they might have. Then, ratchet it up a notch by telling them not only will he vigorously support their opponents come election time, but that he’ll see to it that their states are at the top of the list of places to warehouse high-level al Qaeda prisoners and dumping our nuclear waste, and at the bottom of the list when it comes to everything from public works projects to the distribution of Swine Flu vaccine.

And stop talking all-to-fucking-tether to the repukes...it's a complete waste of time.

[lumberjack_jeff]

29. Whom is most vulnerable to pressure?

I say Tester, Burris, McCaskill, Begich.

I think Wyden will vote yes. He has offered amendments intended to make the public option as currently proposed stronger.

[sinkingfeeling]

30. Senators Lincoln and Pryor can be 'pressured' into a yes vote.