NY-23: Scozzafava Drops Out, Saving Face for Petrified National Republicans

[Joanne98]

Surprising, if not shocking, news from the Watertown Daily Times this morning:

Dede Scozzafava, the Republican and Independence parties candidate, announced Saturday that she is suspending her campaign for the 23rd Congressional District and releasing all her supporters.

The state Assemblywoman has not thrown her support to either Doug Hoffman, the Conservative Party candidate, or Bill Owens, the Democratic candidate . . . Ms. Scozzafava told the Watertown Daily Times that Siena Research Institute poll numbers show her too far behind to catch up - and she lacks enough money to spend on advertising in the last three days to make a difference. Mr. Owens has support from 36 percent of likely voters in the poll, with Mr. Hoffman garnering 35 percent support. Ms. Scozzafava has support from 20 percent of those polled.

What Scozzafava's withdrawal means for Tuesday's election is hard to predict. You would generally anticipate that the endorsed Republican dropping out would help the remaining right-wing candidate, but there's a strong argument to be made that Scozzafava attracted a progressive slice of the electorate, running as she did sometimes to the left of Owens, and that her support will end up with the Democrat. I guess we'll see on Tuesday.

What's undeniable is that Scozzafava's decision saves the national GOP, and a number of prominent Republicans, a deeply uncomfortable election night. The NY-23 battle between Hoffman and Scozzafava had become a proxy war for the teabagger insurrection within the GOP, and the national Republicans who got caught on the wrong side of the know-nothing rebellion were surely dreading the images of their candidate getting crushed by a manic Hoffman. Some particularly ratty GOP types had already begun abandoning the ship, like California's odious Congressman Darrell Issa, who desperately "switched his support" to Hoffman yesterday.

So today Newt Gingrich and the other Scozzafava-endorsing muckety-mucks who lacked Issa's remarkable opportunistic streak can breathe a sigh of relief, as the rest of us wait to see how this last-second shakeup affects the campaign. One thing is for certain - the impact of the NY-23 saga on the fate of the GOP will have far more long-reaching effects than the simple question of who wins on Tuesday. The Republican establishment that at least pretended to speak to all Americans is deeply, deeply wounded, and a wild-eyed, exclusionist, birther religio-beast is taking its place.

Race tracker wiki: NY-23
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/10/31/799108/-NY-23:-Scozzafava-Drops-Out,-Saving-Face-for-Petrified-National-Republicans

[Bumblebee]

1. Josh Marshall wondered the other day whether she was "spoiling" it

now for Owens -- so we will see. She does have rather liberal social views -- so who knows? Many of her supporters just may find it more tolerable to vote for Owens than for Hoffman. One can always hope...

Here's more from today's TPM:

So if Scozzafava is in third, who is she taking more votes from? Greenberg told us that there's no clear verdict on that question:

It is conjecture at this point as to which of the two other candidates current Scozzafava voters would support were she not to be in the race, or were they to decide that she couldn't win and wanted to use their vote to help pick the winner. Scozzafava's current supporters give Owens a 19-50 unfavorable rating and an only slightly worse 15-57 unfavorable rating for Hoffman.

I think it's important to remember that the vast majority of her current support comes from voters in the counties she currently represents in the State Assembly, thus the voters who know her the best.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/10/poll-dem-and-conservative-in-tight-race-for-ny-23-goper-in-third.php?ref=fpblg

[Dennis Donovan]

2. That's my take on it - Club for Growth was running a POSITIVE ad about Dede...

..complete with flattering photos, upbeat music and noting that she stands with Obama on the stimulus and is for Gay Marriage. It made ME want to vote for her!:D

[brooklynite]

11. The other thing to consider is...

...today's most recent poll (Siena) still has Owens in the lead, but should be reflecting the abandonment of Scozzafava by the teabagger element in the Republican Party. Presumptively, the remaining Scozzafava voters are those most likely to resist the rightward pull and jump to Owens.

[DearAbby]

3. TEABAGGERS WIN

It appears then the Teabags have completely taken over the country...they will feel embolden to do this all across the country...:bounce:

[Bumblebee]

4. and hopefully they will win all battles and lose all wars!

[DearAbby]

5. Indeed

Sane people would not wish to vote for these idiots.

[underpants]

7. :bounce: indeed

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x6896680

[aint_no_life_nowhere]

6. Cheney will eat Scozzafava's liver with a nice chianti

[DaveinJapan]

8. k&R

[Nikki Stone1]

9. A local woman who would have helped her district, replaced with an outsider with teabagger support

That's just awful. Imagine if that happened in your district. Here is a person who really knew the local issues, and part of the party decides to put up some doofus who doesn't know ANYTHING about the local issues and is only a placeholder for a group of loonies.

[gratuitous]

10. Another Republican wimps out

These chowderheads have fucked up the country, ruined their party, and now they don't even have the good grace to try to clean up the mess they've made.