Oops! Dede Scozzafava, GOP's best hope, drops out 4 days before NY 23's election

[babylonsister]

:rofl: :nopity:

http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/10/dede_drops_out.php

Dede Drops Out!


Just four days before the election, Republican nominee DeDe Scozzafava abandoned her campaign for the congressional seat in New York's 23rd Congressional district. Why? "It was time to do the right thing, which is to release the Republican County chairs, they've stood by me this entire time, and let them do what's best for the Republican Party," she told a local TV station. A series of polls showed Scozzafava in third place, well behind Democrat Bill Owens and, suddenly, Conservative Doug Hoffman, who had stolen about half of Scozzafava's base. Where do the rest of her votes go? CW says that most go to Hoffman, but I'm with Jonathan Martin: I think half go to Democrat Bill Owens or they stay home. GOP registration exceeds Democratic registration by nearly 50,000. This is a Republican district that is likely to remain Republican, -- only significantly more conservative than it's been.

Hoffman has harnessed several shoots of energy, including anti-incumbent sentiment, conservative opposition to liberal Republicans, and the iatropic excitement that's generated when conservative activists suddenly coalesce around a candidate.

Republicans will derive two lessons from the results of this race. One is that the activist base of the party is becoming increasingly powerful in the one area that had eluded them: candidate selection. Other conservative Republicans may now feel more comfortable if they decide to challenge incumbents in primaries. Democrats, believing that Republicans will conservatize-themselves to death demographically, will take this as a positive trend for the long-term. The second lesson is that populist, regular guy candidates win in supposedly "moderate" districts.

The race had become a proxy for debates about the future of the party. Since the situation in NY 23 is so unusual, it may be folly to squeeze out more meaning than's already present.

[HughMoran]

1. Wow, that's a surprise

The nutbags can rejoice. For now...

[dccrossman]

2. Good for us, IMO

The more the nutbags are emboldened, the more the center will walk away from the Repugs.

[Xipe Totec]

3. Let's hope so,

but clearly, Scozzafava's intent is not to throw the race in our direction.

The hope of the GOP is to unite all the opposition against the Democratic candidate.

[Drunken Irishman]

5. See...I have my doubts.

I think she split the vote and now the vote will unify behind the conservative. Remember, this is a conservative-leaning district anyway and they'll probably back the more conservative candidate.

Though I do believe the long term impact will be better because of what you just said...the short term impact will hurt because this is a seat we could've won.

[sabrina 1]

4. Wouldn't be surprised if she was pushed out

She was splitting the Republican vote. The presumption now is that all her votes will go to Hoffman which most probably will in that district.

Otoh, it could backfire and the more moderate and liberal Repubs may just stay home. But I can't imagine any of them voting for the Dem. Upstate NY is still very Republican. There are a few good Dems upstate, like Hinchey, but not that many.

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Short-term it hurts. Long-term it helps...

Because it just means more and more less moderate Republicans. Over time, that'll take its toll.

[Raspberry]

8. How do you figure that?

If Hoffman wins, he will vote anti-Obama with all the Republicans every time.

[aquart]

7. If I were a member of that party, I would be furious.

I don't like having my choices taken away. And by a third-party candidate?

[Kurovski]

9. Awww....and she had such a great name, too.